Mauer and Buxton

The Twins three and four hitters, Byron Buxton and Joe Mauer, both struggled offensively in the first three games. Its a small sample size and I suspect most people aren't over-worried about Mauer. That could be a mistake, but Mauer didn't strike out in half his plate appearances as Buxton did. Buxton's lone hit came from beating out an infield grounder. This is not really what you want from a number three hitter.

The other difference is Mauer actually has a long track record of hitting major league pitching. Buxton doesn't. In fact he has never been successful at that task for more than a week at a time. The sports writers keep talking about his September performance last year. He actually had one hot week when he was first recalled from Rochester. After that his performance was pretty much the same as it was the rest of the year. On September 7th he had raised his season batting average to .225 and that is how he finished the year. He did manage to increase his OBP with a late surge of walks.

That was very similar to his performance when he was recalled the first time last year. He had a hot week and then went stone cold until they sent him back to Rochester. Its way too early to start thinking that will happen again, but his cold start certainly is not reassuring.

Jim Pohlad's Impatience

Jim Pohlad wants more wins now. And that explains a lot about the Twins organizational failures of the last few years. The Twins who used to be patient, have turned impatient. Instead of building a team they are trying to find a quick fix.

Jorge Palanco is not a shortstop any more than Miguel Sano was a right fielder. In normal times, the Twins would have let these players develop at their natural position. Danny Santana isn't a major league center fielder, but he could well have been a major league shortstop given some more time at the position in the minor leagues.

In the past, long term development would have been  a priority. But since 2008 winning  next season has been the Twins priority. The result is that players have been consistently rushed to the big leagues, playing at whatever opening might be available for them. And its not just the players listed above, you can easily make the case that Trevor May's upside was a reliable Twin starter. But they needed him in the bullpen. Likewise Alex Meyer, who may well turn into a star starter. Byron Buxton can certainly play center field, but he still is not making enough contact to be the offensive force people hoped for. Sano may also turn out to be an all or nothing slugger as the Twins seek whatever immediate benefit they can get out of these two potential stars at the cost of their developing the upside projected for them.

In short the problem for the Twins starts at the top. Its not the manger, general manager or baseball people that are the problem. Its the owner's impatient demand for "more wins", now.

Myths of the Offseason

Every off-season the media and bloggers create some urban legends that aren't really supported on closer look, but they get repeated over and over again until people start to believe them. It sort of works like political campaigns, interesting trumps truthful. Pun intended.

For the the Twins this off-season its the idea that Byron Buxton showed major improvement with his September performance. The reality is a bit different. He had a great first week - just as he did the first week in June when he returned from the minors. Unfortunately, like June, he couldn't sustain anything like that. He raised his batting average to his season average .225 with a 1 for 4 performance on  September 9th. He then hit .225 over the next 21 games to end the season at .225. It was an improvement over his earlier dismal performance, but I am not sure hitting .225 is going to be enough to keep him in center field no matter how many balls he runs down.

This is similar to last off-season when we kept hearing how good the Twins were at the end of the 2015 season, when again the reality was different. They had a great May.  It was their only real winning month of the season if you throw the October games in to September.  They were 10 games over .500 entering June.. But they were a sub-500 ball club from that point on. They were only 5 games over .500 by the end of June, 4 games by the end of July and then played .500 ball the last two months to stay at that level.

That was encouraging, given their struggles in recent seasons. But the second myth was that the Twins had somehow improved after the 2015 season. In truth they had lost their right fielders, Torii Hunter and their center fielder, Aaron Hicks. They also lost Mike Pelfrey, who was second on the team in getting outs, and Blaine Boyer who lead the relievers in innings pitched. In addition Brian Duensing was gone. Their additions were a potential backup catcher, some potential relief help and a potential DH. In short, far from building on the previous season, They were looking for an awful lot of people to have the best year of their careers just to hold their own at .500. That it didn't happen shouldn't really have caught anyone by surprise, but it did.

So here are this off-season's myths:

1. Byron Buxton's September showed he is ready.

2. Moving Miguel Sano back to third base will solve his hitting problems. Sano strikes out too much and its likely he will strike out more, not less, as pitchers see more of him.

3. Paul Molitor showed he was a great manager in 2015 and 2016 wasn't his fault. Molitor was a professional hitter and DH most of his career and it shows in his decisions. He is going to need several more years of managing before he is ready to lead the Twins to a championship, if he ever is ready.

4.   The new baseball people are smart young forward thinking people who will fix a backward, out of date, organization. In truth, like Molitor, they are going to have a learning curve. So far they have demonstrated they are smart enough not to make snap judgments. We will have to wait until later in the season and the next off-season to really judge how good they are. But if they are successful it will be because the Twins organization was already pretty good.

5. The Twins need to add pitching. In fact, the Twins need to see what they have before they start adding additional arms for the long haul. They will no doubt add some veteran options for the bullpen. But beyond that Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Sanchez, May, Berrios, Perkins et al need to be given a chance to see what they can do. Another Ricky Nolasco isn't the answer.

Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco

Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco are the most recent examples of premature hype of young players based  on some success in a limited number of at bats at the major league level. Last season started with Vargas and Santana inked into the lineup, this season it was Sano and Rosario. Before that it was Oswaldo Arcia. In all of these cases, stories seemed to anticipate improvement the second year while the players couldn't even carry over into the following year their initial success.

The reality is that players are often called up because they are hot at AAA and that sometimes carries over to the big leagues. Then the scouts do their work, major league pitchers are able to use the holes in their game and they crash back to earth.  That is why Tom Kelly used to suggest you didn't really know what you had until 1000 at bats. Kepler looks like he is a winner and Polanco has been solid in a series of appearances. But, just as patience is often required for young players to establish themselves, even more patience is required before forming a firm opinion about players who have initial success.

There is a larger problem that the new focus on statistics has created. That is that during the season players, and teams,  numbers are heavily weighted to early performance. Last year the Twins were a sub-500 team for the last four months of the season, but their hot May masked that reality. The same thing happens with individual players. They start out cold and it looks like they are having a terrible year. Or, especially with young players, they have a hot start and it masks their poor to mediocre performance for a long time.

Right now Kepler, Rosario and Polanco are hot. Rosario's resurgence after returning from Rochester is particularly encouraging. But we need to have some patience before we start talking about roster positions for the future. Just as we need to be patient with talented players who struggle initially. For the last month the Twins have looked like they will be contenders next year. But the reality of that depends on those young players continuing to show they are ready for the big leagues. Chances are some will and some won't.

There is nothing wrong with Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton was sent down to AAA this week to make room for Trevor Plouffe. Buxton has repeatedly demonstrated his bat it not ready for the big leagues. In fact, he never really established that his bat was ready for AAA pitching. The Twins rushed Buxton to the big leagues because his defense played there and they had traded away Aaron Hicks who was the only other real center fielder they had.

The idea was his bat would develop in short order. It hasn't. That isn't much of a surprise for a guy who is just 22 years old. To put that in perspective, Torii Hunter played a handful of games in the big leagues at 22 getting less than 20 plate appearances. The next year he was part of the Twins youth movement and spent the entire season in the big leagues as the Twins center fielder. The next year he struggled mightily to start the season and was sent back to AAA. He tore up the league at AAA and was recalled for the rest of the season. The next year his offensive roll continued and he went on to become a Twin legend.

The reality of the Twins is that they have a lot of very young players who will likely need more seasoning at AAA. That includes guys like Sano, Kepler, Palanco and Berrios in addition to Buxton. That does not mean they aren't any good. It simply means that it takes time to adjust to the big leagues for even the most talented players. We remember the guys who have instant success and never look back. But the more typical path is that instant success is followed by failure and the need to adjust. Some guys do that while still producing just enough to hold a roster spot at the big league level, most don't.

What we should look for is the extent to which Buxton takes advantage of the next couple weeks to work on his bunting and base stealing. He should be focusing on those things that he can use at the big league level to take advantage of his outstanding tools. If he doesn't do that, then the real message is that he really isn't mature enough yet to make the jump. That doesn't mean he won't get there eventually or that he won't be a superstar when he does.

Too Late to Send Sano to Rochester

As I posted earlier, I think Miguel Sano should have been at Rochester this year learning to play third base and cutting down on his strikeouts. But it is unlikely he can learn that in the three weeks remaining in this year's minor league season. Wasting a full option year for those three weeks this season may well come back to bite the Twins by limiting their options if Sano continues to struggle in the future. They are better off letting Sano sit on the bench and get occasional use at the major league season. Then let him know that he is slated to start next season at Rochester unless he forces himself onto the roster in spring training. He's still a future star, but he isn't really ready to play at the big league level.

New Stadium Caused Twins Failure

Pat Reusse at the STRIB suggests Target stadium lead to the firing of Terry Ryan. He suggests that the expenses associated with the new stadium has fundamentally changed the Twins business model. That the patience the Pohlad's had with rebuilding at the Metrodome no longer was possible with the need to drive ticket sales with immediate success on the field.

The reality is that business model is almost guaranteed to fail. Baseball is a zero sum game, for every winner there has to be a loser. So a business model that depends on consistent winning means being above average on the field all the time.Nine teams go to the playoffs each year, 21  don't.

The teams that are successful with that business model, like the Red Sox and Yankees,  have revenue streams so large that they can  sign players, their own and free agents, at the peak of their careers and continue to pay them as fading veterans. What would the Twins record have been over the last few years if they had signed Nathan, Santana, Hunter, Morneau, Cuddyer, Hardy and Liriano? Financial considerations were part of all of those players leaving and new revenue from Target stadium is not enough to change that part of the equation.

Of course, you can ask why can't the Twins be consistently above average with the right people making the decisions. And the answer is that baseball is set up to punish success. If your success depends on drafting and developing your core of players, each time you win you are pushed down the ladder on where you draft.  Its tough to build a championship core solely with players taken that late

You can see this with the Twins. For ten seasons, from 2002 to 2011 they drafted in the top of the first round only once, in 2008 when they took Aaron Hicks at number 14.  Their next highest pick was at round 20, where they took Denard Span, Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe. Span and Plouffe are the most successful of any of the players taken at that level in the last 15 years.  Both are solid major league players,  but  neither one is the kind of player you build a championship team around.

In short, if you are going to rely as the Twins in the past have on drafting and development to build a core, then you have to have to have the patience to accept the cycles required to periodically rebuild. With five years of high draft choices and some solid international signings the Twins look like they might be ready to break out and compete in the near future.

Houston started its rebuilding process in 2008 when they took Jason Castro with the 10th pick. They added George Springer and Carlos Correa to their core with high pickes in subsequent drafts and emerged as a contender last year.   That is the player development model the Twins should be following. But the new business model, driven by an expensive stadium, doesn't allow them to wait.

Sano Should Have Been at Third Base All Season ... at Rochester

The handling of Miguel Sano is a good example of the Twins recent focus on immediate results over long term development. He was called up last year because the Twins were in a pennant race and needed his bat in the lineup. His power played well until the league figured him out. Then his inability to make contact, as evidenced by his propensity to strike out, caught up to him. That was apparent at the end of last season and continued into this season without the hot start to mask it in his statistics.

The assumption by fans and sports writers seemed to be that Sano was a DH last year and a right fielder this year because he was blocked at third base by Trevor Plouffe. But it appears that the truth was a little different than that. His glove at third base wasn't ready to play in the big leagues. This is actually similar to David Ortiz, who never learned to play the field and became a career DH. It would be a tragedy if the Twins lack of patience resulted in the same thing happening to Sano. Sano, unlike Ortiz, has the tools to be a good fielder. But he needs lots of repetitions to get there and he is unlikely to get them in the big leagues with impatient owners demanding immediate results.

With Plouffe hurt and the terrible record, it probably makes sense to have Sano play out the year at the big league level. But if he hasn't shown improvement both in the field and at bat, they ought to send him to Rochester to start next year rather than hoping he will somehow figure it out in the major leagues. Its not that Sano isn't "ready", its that the Twins don't have the patience to let him develop fully at the big league level. The experiment in right field was just and example of that impatience.

Twins need New Owners, Not a new GM

The decision to fire Terry Ryan while insisting that the new GM keep Paul Molitor as manager is an indication of how far the Twins organization has come since the days when Carl Pohlad let his baseball people run the show. Pohlad's sons have come to see the Twins as part of their own identity and went into a state of panic over the Twins horrendous start.

Part of that was no doubt a result of the apparent belief of Twins management that last year's record was something to build on rather than the product of over achievement. While no one could have anticipated a nine game losing streak to start the season, even a repeat of last year was optimistic. As I pointed out elsewhere - the Twins were 5 games under .500 after the all-star break and finished the 7 games under .500 from their peak in the middle of June.

What the Twins really lacked this year is patience. As I pointed out in an earlier post, they started the season with a bunch of players who had yet to establish themselves as major league players. They are just starting to see the arrival of the bright new stars they were able to draft during their down years. The first wave of those players,  Buxton, Duffey and Rogers were all drafted in 2012 and are now on the major league roster.  Berrios and Chargois from that same draft got their first taste of the majors and are now back at AAA working on what they learned. No one since 2012 has appeared in the major leagues.  To put that in perspective Rosario was drafted out of high school in 2010. Sano has been in the organization just as long. These two are just now working at establishing themselves.

Unfortunately, the Twins owners are no longer lead by seasoned business guy who had that kind of patience. Carl Pohlad was vilified by some fans for failing to spend his money to buy them a winner. But it was his willingness to hire people he trusted and then let them do their jobs that lead to the Twins series of successes in the early part of the century. In fact, you can make the case that it was only when he closed his checkbook in frustration at the lack of a new stadium that the Twins took off. Forced to play for the future, the team centered around Terry Ryan built success from a group of prospects with a lot less talent than the current crop. Its not that Ryan has lost his touch or that the game has passed him by. Its that the owners lack the patience needed to build a team from scratch.

Twins Struggles Not Unexpected

While no one expected the Twins to lose their first nine game, that they struggled is not really surprising in retrospect. The allstar break is a good time to look back at what caused the struggles, but also to look forward to evaluate what to expect in the future.

A lot was made of the Twins almost making the playoffs last year. While a lot of people seemed to think they got better as the year went on, they were actually worse in the second half. The team that had them at nine games over .500 at the break was not the same team that ended the year.  The Twins team that ended the season was 5 games under .500 after the break.

Other than the hope that young players would improve, there was actually no reason to think the 2016 Twins would be better than the team that ended the season. To the contrary, they had lost their team leader in Torii Hunter, their starting center fielder in Aaron Hicks, their number two starter in Mike Pelfrey, their backup catcher in Chris Hermann and their fifth outfielder in Shane Robinson.

The guys who replaced those players were all young unproven prospects. In fact, 4 players in the Twins opening day batting order had less than 500 major league at bats. Rosario, Buxton, Sano and Park. Only one player on their bench had more than a 1000 major league at bats, Nunez. Two of the other bench players, Santana and Arcia were there primarily because they were out of options. The new backup catcher, Murphy, had less than 500 at bats. Arcia ended up being released and Buxton, Rosario, Park and Murphy were all demoted to Rochester. None of that was really a big surprise, or should have been. The surprise is that Sano has managed to stay in the big leagues. At least so far...

The Twins starting pitching was supposed to be improved, despite losing Pelfrey. But it was a rotation filled with question marks whose upside was steady medicority. Thats about what they got that from Nolasco, Gibson and Santana. The rest of the staff had the injuries and performance problems to be expected from pitchers who have never strung together two consecutive seasons of success at the major league level.

In addition to losing Pelfrey from the rotation, the Twins let Duensing and Boyer walk over the winter and Aaron Thompson was released at the beginning of the season. Again, the replacements were pitchers with little proven major league experience.

There was a lot of hope going into this season with all the ink and commentary about how good this team could be. There was very little thought given to how bad it was likely to be. If the Twins play .500 ball from here on out it will be a better record than last year over the same period. The last couple weeks have provided some hope that they can do that.

Twins 13 Position Players

Its an odd year for the Minnesota Twins. They go into spring training with their roster of 13 position players basically set. Its possible, maybe even likely, that there will be some surprises. But there does not appear to be any real wide open competition for any of the slots, including the bench,. So here is the likely opening day roster for 2016:

Catchers (2) Kurt Suzuki will start the year as the regular catcher again. His defense and handling of pitchers will make him the starter. The Twins acquired John Ryan Murphy will start the year as backup. He was acquired from the Mets as the catcher of the future and he may well take over the starting role by the end of the season. How much playing time will depend on how Suzuki does with the bat and how well Murphy handles the pitching staff.


First Base (2) Joe Mauer starts.  Byung Ho Park is the backup, but he will mostly DH.

Second Base (1) Brian Dozier

Third Base (1) Trevor Plouffe

Shortstop (1) Eduardo Escobar

Utility Players (2) Eduardo Nunez will return as one of the utility players. He can play all three infield positions and the outfield. Danny Santana is out of options and will be the other utility player. He is a better defender than Nunez in both center and at shortstop.  Its possible he will take over as the regular shortstop at some point during the season with Escobar taking the utility role.

Outfield (4) I think the Twins project the everyday outfield as Eddie Rosario in left, Byron Buxton in center and Miguel Sano in right. Oswaldo Arcia is out of options and will be the extra outfielder. As a left hander hitter, Arcia will also DH, sparing Park from hitting against some of the harder throwing right handers to start the season. The Twins have Santana and Nunez who can also play in the outfield so they don't really need a traditional fourth outfielder who can play all three positions.

Obviously injuries may effect this lineup. The Twins may decide Buxton's bat needs more seasoning. Santana and Arcia could play their way out of the organization in Spring Training. Its even possible that the Sano outfield experiment will flop or Park will be deemed not yet ready to face major league pitching. But, there aren't any open roster spots for someone like Max Kepler to take simply by having a hot spring. Unless someone else falters, there aren't any jobs open.

Twins Record is No Fluke

The last couple posts I compared how the Twins pitching and hitting had changed this season compared to 2014, based on the number of runs teams scored by game. To repeat that information through 46 games:

Twins Scoring:

2014
14 games >=6
21 games 3-5 runs
11 games <=2

2015
18 games >=6 runs
14 games 3-5 runs
14 games<=2 runs


Twins Opponents Scoring:

2014
19 games >= 6 runs
18 games 3-5 runs
9 games <=2 runs

2015
11 games >=6 runs
17 games 3-5 runs
18 games <=2 runs

The Twins at this point in the season last year were a .500 team. But if you look at their numbers, they had been held to 2 or fewer runs 2 more times than their opponents and their opponents had scored 6 or more runs 5 more times than the Twins. They probably should have been about 7 games under .500 if they had not gotten some breaks.

In 2015, by contrast to 2014, the Twins have held their opponents to 2 or fewer runs 4 more times than their opponents have and allowed 6 or more runs 7 fewer times. That would put them about 9 games over .500. Very close to where they actually are.

At least based on this comparison, it does not appear that the Twins are living on borrowed time. Instead the improvement in their pitching really has transformed them into a team capable of contending. Its certainly possible that they will once again collapse, but, unlike 2014, there isn't any real reason to expect it.

Twins Offense is About the Same as Last Year

Yesterday I did a comparison of the Twins pitching based on how they have done in limiting runs in individual games. I thought looking at how the Twins offense had done would be useful. I am looking at the first 46 games so that the numbers can be compared to yesterday's pitching numbers.

2015:

18 games >=6 runs
14 games 3-5 runs
14 games<=2 runs


2014

14 games >=6
21 games 3-5 runs
11 games <=2

While the Twins have scored 6 or more runs four more times this year, they have also scored 2 or fewer runs three more times. There has been really little difference in the offenses contribution to winning individual games.

Simple Comparison Shows Reason for Twins Improvement

Here is a comparison of how many runs the Twins' pitchers have allowed in games this year compared to last year:

2015
11 games >=6 runs
18 games <=2 runs
17 games 3-5 runs

2014
19 games >= 6 runs
9 games <=2 runs
18 games 3-5 runs

In short Twins pitchers have given up 6 or runs in a game 8 fewer times while limiting the other team to 2 or less runs 9 more times. I don't think you need to look any further to understand why the Twins record was 23-23 last year and 28-18 this year. In fact, you might ask why the difference isn't even larger.

Its really pretty simple why the Twins are contenders this year. For the first time in many seasons, no one is in the rotation by default. Far from it. Milone is a major league pitcher stuck at AAA only because there is no room for him. And that is even after losing their most accomplished pitcher in Santana. It shows once again that Tom Kelly was right, you are only as good as your next day's pitcher. And that makes the Twins pretty good.

How the Twins Won

Note: This was written on March 31st,2013, the day before the season opener, as a fantasy look-back at how the the Twins might win. I decided not to publish  then, but to save it for the end of the season. Here it is unedited. 

How did this happen? Six months ago the Twins entered the season projected to finish last in the division for the third straight year. How did they end up not only winning the division, but winning it convincingly?

The "Aceless Rotation"

It turns out you don't need an ace who pitches only once every five games. You need five pitchers who keep you in every game. The Twins went into the season with a bunch of castoffs and redemption projects. Four key pitchers started the year on the disabled list and one, Mike Pelfrey, probably should have.

Instead of a single ace, for the first time in three years the Twins had three pitchers get over 200 innings pitched.  Vance Worley, received in trade for Ben Revere, was the opening day starter. Scott Diamond missed his first start recovering from off-season surgery, but that was the last game he missed. Kevin Correa, a widely panned off-season signing, started 33 games for the first time in his career. 


But it was the depth behind those three that allowed the Twins to overcome injuries and some early season struggles.  Mike Pelfry pitched well until his velocity started to fall, instead of improve. Once it was apparent he had come back a bit too quickly from Tommy John surgery, hs replacement, Rich Harden, stepped right in and dominated as a starter for the last three months of the season. Cole DeVries, before going down with a sore elbow in early August, kept the Twins in every game and was on a pace for 200+ innings. Kyle Gibons stepped in to finish out the month before being shut down for the season when DeVries was ready to pitch again.

In short, it was a rare game where the Twins were out of it after six innings. The starters didn't dominate, but they all consistently gave the team a chance to win.

Six Innings and Over

The real key to the Twins pitching success was the bullpen. Teams had to get their runs in the first six innings because, once the Twins starter left, their chances of scoring on the Twins bullpen were very slight. Glen Perkins was solid as a closer, but the setup and middle relief guys were almost as dominant. Rule 5 pick Pressly dominated the 8th inning. He got help from Rafael Perez,  Jared Burton, Anthony Swarzak and Brian Duensing who were all in the game as early as the sixth inning when starters faltered. Rich Harden dominated in the bullpen before moving to the rotation and Mike Pelfry was equally dominating once he regained his velocity with some rest.  While not as dominating, Fien and Roenicke did a more than adequate job keeping chairs warm for injured players. The Twins bullpen was expected to be a strength and it was both very good and very deep. 


Hicks, Parmelee, Plouffe and Arcia

The emergence of Hicks, Parmelee, Plouffe and later Arcia transformed the Twins lineup into one of the most feared in baseball. Hicks skills in the leadoff spot eclipsed even his predecessor Denard Spans,  as he not only got on base but started to show his power by the end of the year. Parmelee's emergence as a .300 hitter with 25 home runs made it possible that this is Justin Morneau's last year as a Twin. Plouffe's demonstration that his home run burst in 2012 was not a fluke, gave the Twins a number 8 hitter with over 30 home runs. When Morneau went on the DL for a week in late June, the Twins called up Arcia to play right field. He started hitting and never stopped. When Morneau came back, the Twins sent Drew Butera packing as third catcher and Ryan Doumit got most of his at bats as a backup catcher and bat off the bench. Arcia, Parmelee and Morneau rotated through the DH spot.

Mauer, Morneau and Willingham

Mauer and Morneau are both top candidates for American League MVP and Willingham is not that far behind. Morneau started out the year the way he did in 2010 before he had his concussion and never stopped, except for his brief stint on the DL in early July. With 40+ home runs, 120 RBI's and a .340 average he should be a shoe-in for MVP. Except that he plays first base and his teammate Joe Mauer, a catcher,  won the batting title hitting .360 with a career high 30 home runs. He had an amazing .480 OBP, which accounted for some of Morneau's RBI's. Willingham repeated his 2011 season with  35 home runs, but got over 100 RBI's for the first time in his career.

Defense up the Middle

Focusing solely on pitching and offense would be a mistake. One of the key changes from last year was the defense up the middle. While Pedro Florimon never provided any offense, his defense first with Brian Dozier, and then with Levi Michael at second base, gave the Twins a stable middle infield for the first time in a long time.  Michaels swift rise through AA and AAA took everyone by surprise. His defense is what got him the job, but he hit well enough to hold down the number two spot in the order the last two months of the season. With Hicks and Mauer at the other two key defensive spots, the Twins had gold glove quality defense at every position up the middle.


The Bench

The Twins depth became a huge asset as the season moved along. Escobar and Carroll gave the Twins solid backups at every infield position. Escobar has even shown he is a plus defender in the outfield.  Doumit, while not a great defensive catcher like Butera, provides the Twins with a switch hitting bat on the bench when he isn't catching. Mastroianni can play all three outfield positions and his offense plays at both leadoff and number two spots. He also pinch runs.

Scouting and Player Development

The Twins had four first round choices emerge this year as part of the core of the team. Hicks, Parmelee, Plouffe and Michaels are all first round choices that some people have written off as failures in the past. Scott Diamond and Ryan Pressly were rule 5 draft choices who played key roles this year. 


Baseball is an unpredictable business and no one would have predicted this. But the Twins are now in the playoffs with the American League's best record. Lets hope they end this run the same way they did in 1992 when they went from last to first and then won the World Series.

Saying Goodbye to Justin and Gardy

This season is likely the last as a Twin for Justin Morneau and it ought to be for Ron Gardenhire.

The Twins apparently declined an offer from Morneau to open negotiations on a contract extension. That makes sense. If Morneau does well enough, he will be a sought after player at the trade deadline. If he doesn't, the Twins don't want to extend his contract. With Parmelee in right field and Arcia almost ready to get a chance, the Twins don't really have a need for Morneau unless they are in a pennant race this year. Which brings us to the second goodbye.

Ron Gardenhire's last minute decision to move Mauer into the number two spot is at best puzzling. Aside from it being a really bad idea, it reeks of panic. From the start of spring training, Gardenhire seemed determined to go with Brian Dozier at second base. But it was obvious that whoever was at second also had to fit into the second spot in the order. Its now apparent that Gardy never really had confidence in Dozier's ability to hit there. Yet, he had an established number two hitter in Jamie Carroll that he never really gave any opportunity to win the starting job. The result is that he has two number nine hitters and no one to bat second.

Apparently he waited until opening day to set the top of his lineup. But you have to wonder if he really never let Terry Ryan know before this that Dozier's bat didn't play in the number two spot, even if his fielding at second did. Its as if spring training was used with one plan and suddenly it changed.

Dozier was a disaster last year. Yet Gardenhire seems to be repeating the mistake.  Worse, its not clear that he isn't just pandering to reporters and bloggers opinions. "You want to see Mauer bat second? Why not? We aren't really going anywhere anyway." Unfortunately under Gardenhire that is likely true, no matter how many quality pitchers Terry Ryan finds. Players like him. Writers like him. Fans like him. But he seems to lack any ability to make judgments about players.  This last minute decision makes Gardenhire look like he is just mucking around, clueless as to what to do rebuild a team other than throw players out there and hope for the best.

Today is the start of what's going to be a long season that could get stranger and stranger as Gardy sees the edge of the approaching cliff. I just hope Terry Ryan doesn't feel the need to jump overboard with Gardy.

Comparing Last Year's Opening Day Lineup to This Year's

Here is the lineup for last year's opening day:

Span (CF)
Carroll (SS)
Mauer (C)
Morneau (DH)
Willingham (LF)
Doumit (RF)
Valencia (3B)
Parmelee (1B)
Casilla (2b)
SP Pavano

This year's lineup:

Hicks (CF)
Carroll/Dozier (2B)
Mauer (C)
Willingham (LF)
Morneau (1B)
Doumit (DH)
Parmelee (RF)
Plouffe (3B)
Florimon (SS)
SP Worley


Here is how that lineup stacks up:

Offense:

Span was a better leadoff hitter than Hicks will likely be this year. That is aside from being a proven veteran with a lot less possibility of failing.

Carroll was also a better number two hitter than Dozier. Although there is not a lot of reason other than normal aging to think this year's version of Carroll will be any better or worse than last years.

Joe Mauer should be Joe Mauer. There have been some suggestions he will step up his power, but that is probably mostly spring training chatter.

Willingham replaces Morneau in the cleanup spot. This is how the year ended last year. Unless Morneau goes back to hitting like an MVP, its likely Willingham will be better than Morneau turned out to be last year. Certainly better than Morneau's start.

Morneau replaces Willingham. Again, this is likely to be an improvement in some ways, but not compared to expectations. Morneau will not likely match Willingham's home run output, but then Willingham didn't project to hit 35 home runs last year either.

Doumit should be Doumit.

Parmelee replaces Valencia. Parmelee projects as a much better hitter, but then Valencia was expected to be much better than he was.

Plouffe replaces Parmelee.  Plouffe will likely hit better than Parmelee last year. But that is not a very high bar. The enthusiasm for Parmelee's bat is based on his AAA performance, not what he did against major league pitching.

Florimon replaces Casilla. Casilla was a better hitter than Florimon is ever likely to be. Again, not a high bar.

Overall the Twins offense should be as good, if not better, than last year.It could be a lot better if Hicks, Parmelee and Plouffe are all productive hitters.

Defense:

Mauer and Willingham are the only defenders returning at the same position. Morneau is a better defensive first baseman than Parmelee. Casilla was better then Dozier is likely to be at second. Florimon is a big improvement at shortstop over Carroll. Plouffe and Valencia are probably comparable defensive players, but Valencia had more experience. Strangely, Parmelee is likely an improvement defensively in right field over Doumit. Span, as a veteran, was a better center fielder than Hicks to start the year.

Overall, the Twins defense has improved with Florimon at shortstop and Morneau back at first. Dozier and Hicks are close enough to their predecessors that it won't make a huge difference. Of course this compares to the start of the year and  Ben Revere was on the bench.

It appears the Twins position players have improved from a year ago and they may be better than they at any point last season.

Pitching:

This year's starter, Vance Worley, actually looks better than Carl Pavano, who was last year's starter. But last year the Twins started with Capps as the closer and Perkins as a setup guy. Its not clear they have the same quality in the bullpen.

The Twins pitching has them projected to finish last again in the division. But their everyday lineup is likely stronger. Whether that will be enough to compensate for the pitching is the real question.  

Five Keys To Twins Success, Key Five: Bullpen

The Twins bullpen is the final key to their success. As mentioned earlier the Twins success depends on closer Glenn Perkins shortening games to eight innings. But the Twins starting pitching is not going to get them to the ninth inning on their own very often.

Last year, the Twins bullpen was one of its strong points.

Jared Burton, emerged last year as the Twins primary setup guy. Aside from Glen Perkins he is the only returning player who spent the whole year in the bullpen.

Brian Duensing bounced between the rotation and setup guy last year. He needs to emerge as a major contributor in the bullpen this year.

Anthony Swarzak was a swing man last year, moving between long relief and the rotation. He starts the year on the disabled list, but the Twins need for him to emerge as a stable part of the bullpen.

Casey Fien and Tyler Robertson were called up in early July and late June respectively. Fien was a solid middle reliever. Robertson is a lefty specialist. He is almost unhittable by lefties, but struggles against right handers.

Brian Roenicke was picked up off waivers from Colorado. He is projected as another middle inning guy.

Ryan Pressly is the last member of the bullpen. He was taken in the rule 5 draft. He was shifted to the bullpen in the minor leagues last year, pitched well in the Arizona Fall league, showing velocity into the mid-90's, much higher than he had as a starter and had a great spring training.

Performance by the bullpen, with a few exceptions, is always uncertain. But with the Twins starting pitching, they can't afford many bullpen meltdowns. They are going to need six innings from their starter, two innings from the middle relief and a lights out performance by Glenn Perkins.

Five Keys to Twins Success, Key Four: Three Starters

One of the criticisms of the Twins is that there rotation going to consist of five guys who are bottom of the rotation starters. The Twins success depends on the three starters with the potential to be better than that. Mike Pelfrey, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley all need to be above average big league starters. The Twins have a number of candidates to share the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation with Kevin Correia. But they don't have anyone else ready for the big leagues who has the ability to be a top of the rotation starter this year. 

Mike Pelfrey

Pelfrey is the veteran of the three. He put up close to 200 innings for four years until last season when he had Tommy John surgery after three successful starts. It usually takes more than a year for a pitcher to recover from that procedure, but Pelfry has appeared to be healthy all spring. If he is healthy and effective he can be a top of the rotation starter.

Scott Diamond

Diamond was a pleasant surprise for the Twins last year. He was taken in the rule 5 draft for the 2011 season and spent the entire year at AAA.  He started last year dominating at AAA and became the Twins best pitcher once called up. If he can repeat last year's performance over a full season, he will give the Twins a solid above average starter with 200+ innings.

Vance Worley

Worley, who came to the Twins in exchange for Ben Revere,  is a year younger than Diamond. He had a good 2011 season after being called up from AAA and then struggled in 2012. Some of that may be attributable to bone chips that were removed last fall. If he pitches for a full season the way he did in 2011, he will give the Twins another solid number two starter.

The Twins pitching is unlikely to be a strength. None of these guys are going to consistently dominate other teams. But with the offensive potential of their lineup, they don't need to for the Twins to win. They just need to pitch well enough to keep the Twins in games without overworking the bullpen. A key to the Twins being competitive is for these guys to give the team quality starts most of the time.

Effect of Hendriks' Injury / Roster Management

No real Impact on Rotation from Liam Hendriks' Injury

Unless Liam Hendriks injured hand is much worse than described, it is not likely to require any significant changes in the Twins rotation. With a day off after their spring opener, the Twins won't really need a fifth starter until April 7th. That's 12 days from now. That would mean having DeVries pitch ahead of him in the rotation on April 5th, assuming that wasn't the original plan anyway. To push him back to the 7th would also require Worley to make his second start on April 6th, rather than getting an extra day of rest.

Scott Diamond has said his target date for being ready is April 12th.   That means whoever is the 5th starter will get only one start in that role. With an off day April 11th, they can rearrange the rotation schedule to accommodate either DeVries or Hendriks, whichever one wins the competition for the last rotation spot.

Roster Management

The Twins apparently are planning to keep Wilkin Ramirez who is not on the major league roster. As I posted earlier this will require opening a spot on the 40 player roster for him. That decision should be announced in the next couple days. No one has really played their way out of a job, with the possible exception of Robertson and he still has options left. This is something that the Twins may struggle with this season more than usual. Once guys like Harden and Perez who are on minor league contracts are ready to pitch, they will need to create room for them. And they don't have many likely candidates to pass through waivers.