I am often surprised by the relative age of players. I think of guys like Rauch being old while Guerrier as young. Here is a list of the Twins roster sorted by date or birth, oldest to youngest. Joe Mauer is still in the younger half of the 40 player roster. Delmon Young would live up to his name even if he was still a prospect fighting for a roster spot. It makes you realize just how much better this team can still get.
Jim Thome 08/27/70
Joe Nathan 11/22/74
Clay Condrey 11/19/75
Carl Pavano 01/08/76
Nick Punto 11/08/77
Orlando Hudson 12/12/77
Matt Guerrier 08/02/78
Jon Rauch 09/27/78
Michael Cuddyer 03/27/79
Brendan Harris 08/26/80
Pat Neshek 09/04/80
Justin Morneau 05/15/81
Jesse Crain 07/05/81
Scott Baker 09/19/81
Nick Blackburn 02/24/82
Matt Tolbert 05/04/82
Jason Kubel 05/25/82
J.J. Hardy 08/19/82
Jose Morales 02/20/83
Brian Duensing 02/22/83
Glen Perkins 03/02/83
Joe Mauer 04/19/83
Drew Butera 08/09/83
Francisco Liriano 10/26/83
Denard Span 02/27/84
Kevin Slowey 05/04/84
Alexi Casilla 07/20/84
Luke Hughes 08/02/84
Rob Delaney 09/08/84
Loek Van Mil 09/15/84
Danny Valencia 09/19/84
Jose Mijares 10/29/84
Jeff Manship 01/16/85
Anthony Swarzak 09/10/85
Delmon Young 09/14/85
Trevor Plouffe 06/15/86
Estarlin De Los Santos 01/20/87
Alex Burnett 07/26/87
Wilson Ramos 08/10/87
Deolis Guerra 04/17/89
Thursday, February 18, 2010
What does K/9 Measure
You will sometimes see the statistic k/9 (strikeouts/nine innings) called a pitcher's "strikeout rate". People will talk about this as "how often" a pitcher strikes batters out. The idea is that innings are a measure of opportunities a pitcher has to strike out batters and the strikeouts are how often they are successful. But, in fact, innings measure how many outs a pitcher got whether he had the opportunity to strike out 10 batters or 3. So k/9 actually measures the percentage of outs a pitcher gets that are by strikeout. This makes the idea of it as "strikeout rate" a little odd. We don't, for instance, divide a batter's home runs by their hits to determine their 'home run rate".
Does this matter? I think it does. Because there are two things that effect k/9. It goes up when a pitcher strikes a batter out and it goes down when they induce an out. A high k/9 may be caused by the ability to strike batters out or by the inability to induce batters to make feeble hits. The average ball in play goes for a hit (minus home runs) about 30% of the time - for statheads the major league BABIP is about .300. If you are below average in that regard, as Randy Johnson was, you will need to strike out a higher percentage of the batters you face to be successful. But Johnson is a rarity, most successful pitchers are above average at inducing outs and the best pitchers are usually good at both. If you have a pitcher with a high K/9 you need to look at the hits they are giving up to determine whether that reflects a great strikeout artist or just an inability to get people out any other way.
Does this matter? I think it does. Because there are two things that effect k/9. It goes up when a pitcher strikes a batter out and it goes down when they induce an out. A high k/9 may be caused by the ability to strike batters out or by the inability to induce batters to make feeble hits. The average ball in play goes for a hit (minus home runs) about 30% of the time - for statheads the major league BABIP is about .300. If you are below average in that regard, as Randy Johnson was, you will need to strike out a higher percentage of the batters you face to be successful. But Johnson is a rarity, most successful pitchers are above average at inducing outs and the best pitchers are usually good at both. If you have a pitcher with a high K/9 you need to look at the hits they are giving up to determine whether that reflects a great strikeout artist or just an inability to get people out any other way.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Wishful Thinking
The claim made often is that, on paper, the Twins look like favorites in the AL central. But that is not only "on paper", it seems to be based on optimistic projections for almost every player in the lineup. Who are the players most likely to disappoint? Here is a semi-pessmistic list of players who could disappoint. Of course injuries and high expectations could make any player a disappointment, but these are players who seem to be most likely to not to quite live up to Twins fans hopes:
JJ Hardy. Almost every evaluation of the Twins has Hardy hitting and fielding the way he did a couple years ago. But last year Hardy really struggled offensively and there are reports his defense has slipped as he has matured. He no longer has the range to be a plus at shortstop. Even Hardy's lose season averages last year may be optimistic, inflated by one hot month. If he continues to struggle the Twins will have a huge hole at shortstop.
Delmon Young: The Twins outfield looks solid, but it depends on Delmon Young hitting the way he ended the season, not the way he started out. That is a reasonable hope, but again until Young shows he can use his potential over a full season it is not a certainty. If he doesn't, with Gomez gone there are not a lot of options available to fill the hole. We may see Kubel in left and Thome at DH more than we want.
Jim Thome: Thome is old. He faded at the end of last season and didn't do very well in a pinch hit role. Its possible he will not be able to find his swing with irregular playing time for the first time in his career. Its also possible that fade was not a fluke, that pitchers found they could challenge him in ways they avoided to start the year.
Orlando Hudson:. Its not clear whether Hudson slipped and lost his job or if Joe Torre just decided to ride the hot bat in the playoffs. But it is a bit suspicious when an all-star, gold glove defensive infielder is replaced in mid-season no matter how hot the other player's bat. Hudson is slow and his "gold glove" defense may not be what it was. If his OBP slips, the excitement about him in the number two spot in the order could fade to disappointment at a base blogging runner who fails to score even when he gets on base.
Kevin Slowey: Slowey is being counted on to fill a spot in the rotation, but reported his wrist was still sore form his surgery which had two screws put in it. Its possible that will change his delivery or effect his control.
Francisco Liriano The spring hype about Liriano's return to his 2006 form could turn out to be just that and Liriano will struggle the same as last year.
Michael Cuddyer Cuddyer really stepped up when Morneau was hurt. Its not clear he can sustain that over an entire season. He could contribute to a disappointing outfield.
Carl Pavano. Pavano's arrival really transformed the pitching staff last year. Or maybe it didn't, but it coincided with improvement in the rest of the staff. Pavono may not be quite the pitcher some people have projected and he could easily follow a long line of disappointing veterans. He is not really an "inning eater". Instead he is a solid mid to back rotation starter. If he is asked to step up to the number two or three spot in the rotation he may not be up to it.
Joe Nathan Nathan is going to start slipping at some point. This could be the year and the Twins don't really have anyone to take his place.
The rest of the bullpen: The Twins bullpen looks solid, but ... any or all of its members could disappoint. Relief pitching is always high risk and the Twins are counting on a number of players who have had their ups and downs.
Of course there are also some players who could step up and surprise us. If you look at that list there is good reason for Twins fans optimism. Except for Hardy and Young, the downside for most of these players is either unlikely or not catastrophic.
JJ Hardy. Almost every evaluation of the Twins has Hardy hitting and fielding the way he did a couple years ago. But last year Hardy really struggled offensively and there are reports his defense has slipped as he has matured. He no longer has the range to be a plus at shortstop. Even Hardy's lose season averages last year may be optimistic, inflated by one hot month. If he continues to struggle the Twins will have a huge hole at shortstop.
Delmon Young: The Twins outfield looks solid, but it depends on Delmon Young hitting the way he ended the season, not the way he started out. That is a reasonable hope, but again until Young shows he can use his potential over a full season it is not a certainty. If he doesn't, with Gomez gone there are not a lot of options available to fill the hole. We may see Kubel in left and Thome at DH more than we want.
Jim Thome: Thome is old. He faded at the end of last season and didn't do very well in a pinch hit role. Its possible he will not be able to find his swing with irregular playing time for the first time in his career. Its also possible that fade was not a fluke, that pitchers found they could challenge him in ways they avoided to start the year.
Orlando Hudson:. Its not clear whether Hudson slipped and lost his job or if Joe Torre just decided to ride the hot bat in the playoffs. But it is a bit suspicious when an all-star, gold glove defensive infielder is replaced in mid-season no matter how hot the other player's bat. Hudson is slow and his "gold glove" defense may not be what it was. If his OBP slips, the excitement about him in the number two spot in the order could fade to disappointment at a base blogging runner who fails to score even when he gets on base.
Kevin Slowey: Slowey is being counted on to fill a spot in the rotation, but reported his wrist was still sore form his surgery which had two screws put in it. Its possible that will change his delivery or effect his control.
Francisco Liriano The spring hype about Liriano's return to his 2006 form could turn out to be just that and Liriano will struggle the same as last year.
Michael Cuddyer Cuddyer really stepped up when Morneau was hurt. Its not clear he can sustain that over an entire season. He could contribute to a disappointing outfield.
Carl Pavano. Pavano's arrival really transformed the pitching staff last year. Or maybe it didn't, but it coincided with improvement in the rest of the staff. Pavono may not be quite the pitcher some people have projected and he could easily follow a long line of disappointing veterans. He is not really an "inning eater". Instead he is a solid mid to back rotation starter. If he is asked to step up to the number two or three spot in the rotation he may not be up to it.
Joe Nathan Nathan is going to start slipping at some point. This could be the year and the Twins don't really have anyone to take his place.
The rest of the bullpen: The Twins bullpen looks solid, but ... any or all of its members could disappoint. Relief pitching is always high risk and the Twins are counting on a number of players who have had their ups and downs.
Of course there are also some players who could step up and surprise us. If you look at that list there is good reason for Twins fans optimism. Except for Hardy and Young, the downside for most of these players is either unlikely or not catastrophic.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Nick Punto
Nick Punto has been a very good player for the Twins. He has contributed to their long run of success since he arrived in 2004, handling three different positions with exceptional defense. Because he is so flexible, the Twins have been able to fill out an infield with the best available players at the other positions, knowing Punto can fill in wherever needed.
While his defense is outstanding, on offense Punto has had his ups and downs. He lacks any power, so his already low batting averages some years have been even emptier. Where he makes up for that is by working pitchers. There were several times last year that the top of the order benefited from a pitcher who was cruising along until worn down by Punto. He is not an easy out and that is reflected in his decent on base percentages even when his batting average is down.
He has not been particularly durable. When asked to play 150 games in 2007, he had his worst offensive year. Bad enough that even his stellar defense didn't make up for his lack of offense. That is largely the basis of all the abuse he gets. But he recovered with a lighter work load in 2008 and 2009. Still his durability is something to keep in mind this year when he will likely share third base with Brendan Harris.
Some people would call Punto the quintessential utility player. But he is really better than that. He is not Cesar Tovar, but he's not Al Newman either to name a couple of past Twins payers with similar versatility. Utility players don't get 400+ at bats year after year.
This may well be Punto's last year with the Twins. He is losing some of his defensive prowess as he ages and the Twins have Matt Tolbert ready to replace some of what he brings to the table. But he has served the Twins and their fans well up until now. It would be great if he could leave with a World Series ring.
While his defense is outstanding, on offense Punto has had his ups and downs. He lacks any power, so his already low batting averages some years have been even emptier. Where he makes up for that is by working pitchers. There were several times last year that the top of the order benefited from a pitcher who was cruising along until worn down by Punto. He is not an easy out and that is reflected in his decent on base percentages even when his batting average is down.
He has not been particularly durable. When asked to play 150 games in 2007, he had his worst offensive year. Bad enough that even his stellar defense didn't make up for his lack of offense. That is largely the basis of all the abuse he gets. But he recovered with a lighter work load in 2008 and 2009. Still his durability is something to keep in mind this year when he will likely share third base with Brendan Harris.
Some people would call Punto the quintessential utility player. But he is really better than that. He is not Cesar Tovar, but he's not Al Newman either to name a couple of past Twins payers with similar versatility. Utility players don't get 400+ at bats year after year.
This may well be Punto's last year with the Twins. He is losing some of his defensive prowess as he ages and the Twins have Matt Tolbert ready to replace some of what he brings to the table. But he has served the Twins and their fans well up until now. It would be great if he could leave with a World Series ring.
The Infield
The first question about the Twins infield is how many will there be - five or six? Five places appear set, Morneau, Hudson, Punto, Harris and Hardy. The question then is whether they will keep Tolbert or Casilla or neither. Complicating that decision is that Casilla is out of options, which means he can't be sent to the minor leagues without passing through waivers. It is highly unlikely that would happen. Tolber still has options, so he can be sent to the minor leagues. The other complication, is that they likely need for at least one of these guys to be able to spell Denard Span. The alternative is to have Michael Cuddyer playing center field.
One of the key questions in spring training is which JJ Hardy shows up, the emerging star of a couple years ago or the guy who was sent to the minors last season. If it looks at all likely that last year was not a fluke, the Twins are going to want a lot of flexibility in the infield. Hardy suffered on offense and , reportedly, on defense as well last year. That means Thome may get more pinch hitting opportunities and a backup shortstop may be a bigger part of the Twins plans.
The second question is how third base is split between Punto and Harris. Punto is a better defender and more flexible than Harris. If Harris is on the bench, the Twins are probably going to want a second guy who can play second base and run a little. Punto can fill those roles.
The final question is Alexi Casilla. Its not really that he needs to emerge this spring, if the Twins expected that they wouldn't have dealt for Hudson. Its whether they are ready to give up on him and/or can't find anyone willing to give them something in return. Casilla can play second and shortstop - although he has no real experience at short in the major leagues. Third base or the outfield would be wholly new experiences. It will be interesting to see if he is taking balls at those positions in spring training. If not, I suspect they are showcasing him for a trade, rather than considering him for a roster spot. They do have Harris and Punto who can play at those positions, so Casilla will likely not be a first choice in any case.
Tolbert can play second, third and short. He has played the outfield, but would need to do a lot more to get ready to play center field. But he really is the quintessential utility guy in a way Casilla isn't.
Given the decision to let Pridie go, I think the Twins are preparing to start the year with six guys in the infield. Unless they can make a trade, I think Casilla is the most likely choice with Tolbert at AAA. But there are still a lot of questions to be answered.
One of the key questions in spring training is which JJ Hardy shows up, the emerging star of a couple years ago or the guy who was sent to the minors last season. If it looks at all likely that last year was not a fluke, the Twins are going to want a lot of flexibility in the infield. Hardy suffered on offense and , reportedly, on defense as well last year. That means Thome may get more pinch hitting opportunities and a backup shortstop may be a bigger part of the Twins plans.
The second question is how third base is split between Punto and Harris. Punto is a better defender and more flexible than Harris. If Harris is on the bench, the Twins are probably going to want a second guy who can play second base and run a little. Punto can fill those roles.
The final question is Alexi Casilla. Its not really that he needs to emerge this spring, if the Twins expected that they wouldn't have dealt for Hudson. Its whether they are ready to give up on him and/or can't find anyone willing to give them something in return. Casilla can play second and shortstop - although he has no real experience at short in the major leagues. Third base or the outfield would be wholly new experiences. It will be interesting to see if he is taking balls at those positions in spring training. If not, I suspect they are showcasing him for a trade, rather than considering him for a roster spot. They do have Harris and Punto who can play at those positions, so Casilla will likely not be a first choice in any case.
Tolbert can play second, third and short. He has played the outfield, but would need to do a lot more to get ready to play center field. But he really is the quintessential utility guy in a way Casilla isn't.
Given the decision to let Pridie go, I think the Twins are preparing to start the year with six guys in the infield. Unless they can make a trade, I think Casilla is the most likely choice with Tolbert at AAA. But there are still a lot of questions to be answered.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Second Catcher
The Twins spring training is not likely to be very eventful. There are only a handful of roster spots really in play. The first is the second catcher. There are some people who see this as a backup position, but its not. Mauer will likely start about three quarters of the games if he remains healthy. The second catcher will be in the lineup for the remaining quarter. That is about as much as a starting pitcher. Of course the catcher has less impact on the game than the pitcher, but it is still a lot more impact than a backup at other positions will have unless there is an injury.
Defense is the first priority in choosing a catcher. That is because it is the most important defensive position on the field after the pitcher. Like the pitcher, the catcher is involved with every pitch. The mental aspects, the ability to call a game and work with pitchers, are probably the most important parts of this job and almost impossible for fans to really evaluate. Along with that are the physical challenges like blocking pitches and throwing out base runners. And, perhaps most importantly, the catcher has to be durable, capable of performing with lots of minor aches and pains over an entire season. Obviously the latter is less an issue for a guy who only catches every fourth day. Of course the guys who aren't durable are going to get weeded out in the minor leagues and moved to another position. But it is important to remember durability is an issue when people talk about Wilson Ramos. He has not really shown he can do the job over an entire season.
The three realistic candidates for the second catcher job are Morales, Butera and, maybe, Ramos. Each brings something a little different to the job.
I think many people saw Morales as having the job at the end of last year. Mike Redmond was allowed to leave, in part, because the Twins had confidence Morales was ready to step in. Unfortunately, Morales had wrist surgery and may not be ready at the start of the season. The Twins seem to think he will be, Morales sounds skeptical. Morales has had a series of injuries over the last couple years that have set him back. But I am not sure that is really a sign of fragility, it may just be bad luck. Morales bat is pretty solid, although his career numbers are probably misleading. His defense is more in question, but it appears the Twins think it is at least adequate to the task now that he is fully recovered from his ankle injury from a couple years ago.
Even before Morales was hurt, Butera was his main competition for the second catcher position. Butera is a "catch and throw" guy who is valued for his defense. His bat is highly questionable and the only real question is whether it is so bad as to prevent him from playing in the major leagues. If he can hit .225-.250, his defense will probably allow him to make a career for himself as a second catcher. Certainly for a team like the Twins that tend to always rely on young pitchers to play key roles, a quality defensive catcher is going to be valued. Ideally you would want Butera's defense with Morales bat, which brings us to Wilson Ramos.
There is no question Ramos has a combination of offensive and defensive that are the makings of a major league starting catcher. In any other organization, teams would be looking ahead to the day when he was ready to play in the big leagues. For obvious reasons, the Twins aren't. The problem is not Ramos tools, but whether he is really ready for the big leagues and whether his development would be strunted by spending 3/4 of the year on a major league bench instead of catching every day in the minors. Ramos has barely over 300 at bats above A-ball. Given the Twins have two other catchers with major league skills, I think it is unlikely they are going to rush Ramos to the big leagues. In fact, its likely he will start the year back at AA if Morales is ready to catch at the start of the season.
There are several other catchers, not on the roster, who are in camp. That is mostly because they need catchers to work with all the pitchers during spring training. Danny Lehman is the only one of these guys who may have a shot at the big leagues this year. He is probably next in line if Morales and Butera were both hurt and Ramos is deemed not yet ready. But I suspect the Twins would be looking to make a trade if that situation lasted very long. Lehman is really an organization player who would have to be in the right place at the right time to get a major league job even for a short period.
Which brings us to a final comment. Because of his limited bat, there are people who think Butera has little value. Some even suggested the Twins release him to make room for Orlando Hudson or Jim Thome. The reality is that major league quality defensive catchers are hard to find. In 2004, when Joe Mauer got hurt, it was Henry Blanco a catch and throw guy that was behind the plate as they went to the playoffs. He hit only .206 and the Twins were very happy to have him. He disappointed them when he signed elsewhere after the season. Catching is a defensive position.
Defense is the first priority in choosing a catcher. That is because it is the most important defensive position on the field after the pitcher. Like the pitcher, the catcher is involved with every pitch. The mental aspects, the ability to call a game and work with pitchers, are probably the most important parts of this job and almost impossible for fans to really evaluate. Along with that are the physical challenges like blocking pitches and throwing out base runners. And, perhaps most importantly, the catcher has to be durable, capable of performing with lots of minor aches and pains over an entire season. Obviously the latter is less an issue for a guy who only catches every fourth day. Of course the guys who aren't durable are going to get weeded out in the minor leagues and moved to another position. But it is important to remember durability is an issue when people talk about Wilson Ramos. He has not really shown he can do the job over an entire season.
The three realistic candidates for the second catcher job are Morales, Butera and, maybe, Ramos. Each brings something a little different to the job.
I think many people saw Morales as having the job at the end of last year. Mike Redmond was allowed to leave, in part, because the Twins had confidence Morales was ready to step in. Unfortunately, Morales had wrist surgery and may not be ready at the start of the season. The Twins seem to think he will be, Morales sounds skeptical. Morales has had a series of injuries over the last couple years that have set him back. But I am not sure that is really a sign of fragility, it may just be bad luck. Morales bat is pretty solid, although his career numbers are probably misleading. His defense is more in question, but it appears the Twins think it is at least adequate to the task now that he is fully recovered from his ankle injury from a couple years ago.
Even before Morales was hurt, Butera was his main competition for the second catcher position. Butera is a "catch and throw" guy who is valued for his defense. His bat is highly questionable and the only real question is whether it is so bad as to prevent him from playing in the major leagues. If he can hit .225-.250, his defense will probably allow him to make a career for himself as a second catcher. Certainly for a team like the Twins that tend to always rely on young pitchers to play key roles, a quality defensive catcher is going to be valued. Ideally you would want Butera's defense with Morales bat, which brings us to Wilson Ramos.
There is no question Ramos has a combination of offensive and defensive that are the makings of a major league starting catcher. In any other organization, teams would be looking ahead to the day when he was ready to play in the big leagues. For obvious reasons, the Twins aren't. The problem is not Ramos tools, but whether he is really ready for the big leagues and whether his development would be strunted by spending 3/4 of the year on a major league bench instead of catching every day in the minors. Ramos has barely over 300 at bats above A-ball. Given the Twins have two other catchers with major league skills, I think it is unlikely they are going to rush Ramos to the big leagues. In fact, its likely he will start the year back at AA if Morales is ready to catch at the start of the season.
There are several other catchers, not on the roster, who are in camp. That is mostly because they need catchers to work with all the pitchers during spring training. Danny Lehman is the only one of these guys who may have a shot at the big leagues this year. He is probably next in line if Morales and Butera were both hurt and Ramos is deemed not yet ready. But I suspect the Twins would be looking to make a trade if that situation lasted very long. Lehman is really an organization player who would have to be in the right place at the right time to get a major league job even for a short period.
Which brings us to a final comment. Because of his limited bat, there are people who think Butera has little value. Some even suggested the Twins release him to make room for Orlando Hudson or Jim Thome. The reality is that major league quality defensive catchers are hard to find. In 2004, when Joe Mauer got hurt, it was Henry Blanco a catch and throw guy that was behind the plate as they went to the playoffs. He hit only .206 and the Twins were very happy to have him. He disappointed them when he signed elsewhere after the season. Catching is a defensive position.
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Who goes to provide roster space for Hudson?
The signing of Orlando Hudson means the Twins need to open another roster spot. When Jim Thome signed, Steven Tolleson was taken off the roster and claimed on waivers by Oakland. Now it looks like the Twins will likely lose another player. The ideal way to avoid that is with a trade. The Twins have some surplus in a couple places, the major league infield and pitching. Of course, almost anyone could be traded if there is a team that is looking to make a deal but here are the likely trade candidates:
Glen Perkins - The Twins seem to have soured on Perkins and the only thing that has held up a trade is the unwillingness of other teams to give full value. If they could move Perkins for real value, I think he would be tops on their list. But that hasn't happened yet and it seems unlikely to happen in a couple days unless they already had a deal in the works.
Alexi Casilla - Casilla is out of options and the Twins infield is full of players. He won't get through waivers, so he can't just be taken off the roster without losing him. I don't think the Twins have given up on him yet, but if they could get something in return they would probably do a deal for him.
Matt Tolbert - Tolbert is not out of options, which means he can be used to provide depth at Rochester, much as he was last year. He is also the sort of player someone who needs a utility infielder might deal a prospect for. I think it is unlikely, but not out of the question.
Jesse Crain - The Twins have some depth in their bullpen and Crain has not been consistent. I think it is a real longshot that they would deal him, but again not impossible. In truth, you could add most of the bullpen to the list with that caveat, not impossible. But I don't think its likely the Twins are going to reduce their pitching depth unless, like Perkins, they are really disenchanted with a player.
If they can't make a deal, the Twins will have to take someone off their roster. I think this is the most likely outcome and the candidates are almost all minor league players. Here is how I see them in order of likelihood with Hughes very much the most likely candidate if they have to go this route:
Luke Hughes - Hughes is a guy without a position. He isn't really an infielder and his bat doesn't play at a corner outfield spot. He has played several positions in the minors, but has really never developed at any of them. He does have some power and giving that up is difficult. Its that power that would make him a target on the waiver wire.
Trevor Plouffe - I think Plouffe has a future, but its not clear the Twins do and their opinion is the one that counts. I wonder if he has some makeup problems, because he seemed to make a lot of progress at the end of last year. And then the Twins went out and committed to JD Hardy. It seems doubtful they would let a former number one prospect go, but they have limited options.
Jason Pridie - Pridie is the Twins fourth outfielder and really the only guy who can play center if Denard Span is out for an extended period. That said, the Twins have made noises about going with three outfielders and Jason Kubel as the backup. They would use Cuddyer, Punto and/or Tolbert as emergency backups. But if Pridie is taken on waivers, its not clear there is anyone in the minors ready to step into the center field role if Span went down for an extended period. The idea of Cuddyer out in center field every day is scary.
There are some other highly unlikely candidates:
Joe Mauer - if they can't sign him, they might just release him to avoid the distraction. They would still have Drew Butera, who is a good defensive catcher, healthy and ready to step in.
Justin Morneau - Thome can play first
Orlando Hudson - This would be an oops we goofed moment.
Brendan Harris - Another oops we goofed moment.
Nick Punto - Smith may be really tired of Gardy and releasing Punto might get him to quit.
JD Hardy - Another oops, we goofed moment.
Michael Cuddyer - Unlikely, they need someone who can play center field.
Denard Span - This would open a spot so Michael Cuddyer can play center, or maybe Delmon Young.
Delmon Young - Smith may really want the whole Garza trade to just go away and get rid of this reminder that he ever made it.
Jason Kubel - Thome can DH
Glen Perkins - The Twins seem to have soured on Perkins and the only thing that has held up a trade is the unwillingness of other teams to give full value. If they could move Perkins for real value, I think he would be tops on their list. But that hasn't happened yet and it seems unlikely to happen in a couple days unless they already had a deal in the works.
Alexi Casilla - Casilla is out of options and the Twins infield is full of players. He won't get through waivers, so he can't just be taken off the roster without losing him. I don't think the Twins have given up on him yet, but if they could get something in return they would probably do a deal for him.
Matt Tolbert - Tolbert is not out of options, which means he can be used to provide depth at Rochester, much as he was last year. He is also the sort of player someone who needs a utility infielder might deal a prospect for. I think it is unlikely, but not out of the question.
Jesse Crain - The Twins have some depth in their bullpen and Crain has not been consistent. I think it is a real longshot that they would deal him, but again not impossible. In truth, you could add most of the bullpen to the list with that caveat, not impossible. But I don't think its likely the Twins are going to reduce their pitching depth unless, like Perkins, they are really disenchanted with a player.
If they can't make a deal, the Twins will have to take someone off their roster. I think this is the most likely outcome and the candidates are almost all minor league players. Here is how I see them in order of likelihood with Hughes very much the most likely candidate if they have to go this route:
Luke Hughes - Hughes is a guy without a position. He isn't really an infielder and his bat doesn't play at a corner outfield spot. He has played several positions in the minors, but has really never developed at any of them. He does have some power and giving that up is difficult. Its that power that would make him a target on the waiver wire.
Trevor Plouffe - I think Plouffe has a future, but its not clear the Twins do and their opinion is the one that counts. I wonder if he has some makeup problems, because he seemed to make a lot of progress at the end of last year. And then the Twins went out and committed to JD Hardy. It seems doubtful they would let a former number one prospect go, but they have limited options.
Jason Pridie - Pridie is the Twins fourth outfielder and really the only guy who can play center if Denard Span is out for an extended period. That said, the Twins have made noises about going with three outfielders and Jason Kubel as the backup. They would use Cuddyer, Punto and/or Tolbert as emergency backups. But if Pridie is taken on waivers, its not clear there is anyone in the minors ready to step into the center field role if Span went down for an extended period. The idea of Cuddyer out in center field every day is scary.
There are some other highly unlikely candidates:
Joe Mauer - if they can't sign him, they might just release him to avoid the distraction. They would still have Drew Butera, who is a good defensive catcher, healthy and ready to step in.
Justin Morneau - Thome can play first
Orlando Hudson - This would be an oops we goofed moment.
Brendan Harris - Another oops we goofed moment.
Nick Punto - Smith may be really tired of Gardy and releasing Punto might get him to quit.
JD Hardy - Another oops, we goofed moment.
Michael Cuddyer - Unlikely, they need someone who can play center field.
Denard Span - This would open a spot so Michael Cuddyer can play center, or maybe Delmon Young.
Delmon Young - Smith may really want the whole Garza trade to just go away and get rid of this reminder that he ever made it.
Jason Kubel - Thome can DH
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