Twins Ace

Do the Twins need an "ace"? 

As the Twins fans saw in their two World Series victories, the playoffs reward teams with a couple very good pitchers over a deep rotation. But the flip side of that is that their run of ALC pennant races has shown how pitching depth can get you to the playoffs. The 2001 race, where they fell apart down the stretch,  demonstrated how quick things can go south when a rotation lacks depth and is forced to experiment with young pitchers before they are ready. 

The Twins go into 2011 with a rotation that is six deep. Its a rare season where a team gets by with mostly 5 starters. The chances that one of the initial five starters will get hurt or fail to perform is high. The Twins starting rotation, given that depth, should be the best in the division. But, while we may be getting ahead of ourselves worrying about the playoffs, depth is a lot less important once they start. This is why some fans are very concerned about the "ace" question.

Last year the Twins best pitcher was Carl Pavano.  The other candidate would be Francisco Liriano. But Liriano got fewer batters out, pitching many fewer innings. And that is true even if you consider how many batters each pitcher faced. Pavano's lead in the much-maligned wins statistic probably reflected that ability to get hitters out. Pavano was also more durable, facing an average of 28 batters per start to Liriano's 26. 

Durability is less an issue in the playoffs with protection of the bullpen less important. If your starters are wearing out the bullpen you probably aren't going very far in any case. But getting batters out remains the object and Pavano was better at that than Liriano last year. So the first  question is whether Pavano can repeat his performance of last year. If he can, he is going to be the staff leader.   Of course Liriano is still a young pitcher who was set  back by injuries. So we may see him blossom into that quintessential ace who pitches deep into games and surpasses Pavano. If that happens, the Twins are going into the playoffs with two guys who can win against any competition. They may not be Johan Santana, or even Jack Morris, in his prime, but they are good enough to win the World Series if the rest of the team is on its game.

Are the Twins Better?

We are only part way through the off-season, but the Twins are already emerging as a better team than last year. They definitely have some more work to do to solidify those gains, but their moves so far have put the team in a better position than last year at this same time. 

They still need to finalize a deal with for Nishioka, the Japanese league batting champion and gold glove infielder. Once that is done, the infield looks to be strengthened both offensively and defensively. Unless Danny Valencia regresses dramatically , and infield of Morneau, Casilla,  Nishioka and Valencia is likely to be an improvement both offensively and defensively from last year when Hudson, Hardy and Punto started the year. The youth of that infield makes it a higher risk, but the upside of having guys coming into their prime in those roles is step up. Hardy, of course, is not that old. But he sure played old, including the injuries. Hudson wasn't signed until later in the off-season and we may still see the Twins add some infield depth besides Matt Tolbert.

They also need to add one more starter, but it seems that they are on track to re-sign Pavano. Failing that, they will probably sign a veteran more likely to end up at the end of the rotation. In any case, Pavano is unlikely to repeat last year's performance. Nonetheless, the rotation will likely be better. All five of the other starters are near their primes with one more year of experience than they had to start last year. Duensing has emerged as a solid starter after starting last year in the bullpen. Liriano is starting to show the ace qualities people attributed to him. Baker, Blackburn and Slowey are all finesse pitchers who will benefit from another year of experience fooling batters. Of course, they probably won't ALL be better. But given their youth, the net impact ought to be better.

The Twins outfield will start the same as it started last year. The exception being that they now have a solid 4th outfielder in Repko. His bat is not much but he plays plus defense at all three outfield spots. We won't hear Gardy threatening to stick Cuddyer out in center again. Kubel continues to provide an offense-oriented backup for the corner spots. If the Twins can resign Thome, Kubel may get more playing time out there against tough right-handers. But regardless, with the addition of Repko the Twins outfield is a lot more flexible than last year. Span had a down year last year and at 26 you would expect improvement from him. 

The Twins biggest question mark is the bullpen. But that was also a question last season after Nathan went down. For all the current love of Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain, there were a lot of questions last winter about how reliable they would be. Rauch was really mostly unproven as a closer. And Mijares was a question mark as well. Condrey, of course, got hurt and never pitched. In short, people who think the bullpen is worse are comparing it to the end of the season, not the beginning. The Twins will start the year with Capps, Nathan and Mijares. The rest are questions, but with a long list of potential answers. Last fall, Perkins looked ready to help. Neshek may be fully recovered. And there is a long list of AA and AAA pitchers who have shown some promise. The chances are pretty good that the Twins will have to make some deals during the season to strengthen the bullpen. But that is exactly the same situation as last year when they added Fuentes and Capps.

The primary improvement for the Twins is the development of young players last year. Valencia, Casilla, Young, Duensing, Liriano and others all improved last year and we can expect similar imrprovements from the young players. For instance, Span had a down year offensively last year but at 26 you would still expect him to be improving.

As always there will be two keys to the Twins season. Injuries and the improvements of young players. While much is made of the "M&M" boys, the reality is that the Twins have often not had both of them in the lineup at the same time. If they can both stay healthy, the Twins will be hugely improved.  Likewise, The bullpen will be pretty solid if Nathan comes back and pitches well and if Neshek can maintain his velocity with another season past surgery. Of course, there will be injuries. But maybe not of the magnitude of losing and MVP or a premiere closer. And if there are injuries, the Twins have a lot of depth with the flexibility their players give them. The one place that is not true is catcher. While Butera is a fine defensive backup, the Twins lineup   is seriously weakened without Mauer in the number three spot.  Jose Morales may be able to step up, but his defense is not what the Twins expect.

In terms of young player improvements, those are hard to predict. But the Twins remain rich in players who are on the upside of their career. It is that natural improvement that has made the Twins better each of the last two seasons. Next year doesn't look any different. And the moves off-season to make the team younger are part of that.

Twins Bullpen

The Winter meetings are over and the results of the Twins off-season transformation of their bullpen are a lot clearer. The bullpen lost several key players to free agency, Rauch, Fuentes, Crain and Guerrier. It appears now that none of them will be back. So the bullpen is going to have a whole new look next year with competition in spring training determining the outcome. Here is how things shape up:

All but certain to have spots: Capps, Nathan, Mijares, Jim Hooey

Capps is likely the closer with Nathan's role depending on his recovery. My guess is that Nathan will pitch in a back of the bullpen role to start while they test his arm. Hooey apparently is a hard thrower with a fastball in the mid-upper 90's. If he gets the ball over the plate consistently he probably fits a setup role. Otherwise he is one of the middle relievers. Mijares is the left-handed setup guy and may be called on as the main guy to get the ball to Capps. 

That leaves three openings. I think the front runners for two of those positions are Perkins and Neshek. There have been mixed reports on Neshek, but he apparently lost velocity as the season went along in his first year back from surgery. If he shows up throwing hard in spring training he is likely to start the year in either a setup role or in middle relief. Perkins appeared to have fallen out of favor, with lots of predictions that his days with the Twins were over. But he appears to have rejuvenated his reputation with coaches with his performance last fall. If that performance carries over to this year, he will  likely be in a middle relief role.

The competition for those two positions and the seventh spot in the bullpen can be split between two groups. One is a group includes Burnett, Slama, Delaney, Manship and Diamond (their rule 5 pick). Burnett started out well in the bullpen last year and then faded as the league caught up to him. But he is still young and has major league talent. He would likely be the favorite for the 7th spot. Manship, Slama and Delaney are all pitchers who could take the 7th spot by default. They are old enough that sending them back to AAA for seasoning is probably not an issue. They need to show they can perform in the major leagues, but their chances to do that probably depend on more talented pitchers not being ready.  Diamond is a wild card. Some speculation is that he could be a situational lefty. I think whether he makes the role depends not only on his own performance, but how confident the Twins are in the six guys they have ahead of him in the bullpen. He probably is not going to be the best pitcher of the group, but the requirement that he stay in the big leagues may win out if the Twins think they can carry him in the back of the bullpen.

The second group is a bunch of young prospects. This includes Guttierez, Swarzak, Waldrop, Robertson, Province. These guys are probably all slated for AAA. With the possible exception of Swarzak, they will have to step up in spring training and force themselves onto the roster. Guttierez is clearly the guy with the most upside. If he does well at AAA, its likely he will be in the bullpen by the playoffs. Swarzak has had opportunities as a starter in the past, but he has probably been passed by on that list. He still has some time to develop but the clock is close to run out. Waldrop, Robertson and Province are all guys with some talent, but little experience above AA. 

Finally, there is one other possibility. If the Twins sign Pavano, then one of the current projected starters (Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing, Liriano or Baker) will likely end up in the bullpen. With the exception of Duensing, I think they are all out of options, so having them start at AAA is not an option.

To summarize, there are lots of questions with the bullpen, lots of answers and a lot of sorting out to do. I think some of it will get sorted out in spring training, but it is not unlikely that, like last year, the bullpen is a work in progress for most of the season. The best case scenario is probably that Nathan regains his form and pushes Capps into a setup role along with Mijares. Hooey shows command of an overpowering fastball. Perkins and Neshek demonstrate the potential they were believed to have and Guttierez comes up and provides an additional dominant arm for the playoffs. More likely several players fall short of those lofty goals or get hurt. Then the Twins will be looking to deal for additional relievers at the deadline.

Twins Playoff Roster

So Twins are past the point of no return and are now into discussions of the playoff roster. I am going to leave Morneau out of the discussion, because I don't really expect him to be back this year. 

Position Players (14 spots)

There are nine starters that are guaranteed barring injuries.  

Mauer

Cuddyer

Hudson

Hardy

Valentine

Young

Span

Kubel

Thome

The candidates for five backup spots are:

Catcher: Morales, Butera

Infield: Punto, Tolbert, Casilla

Outfield: Repko

Not likely: Plouffe, Revere

Pitchers(11 spots)

Starting rotation: (4 spots)

Two starters are set:

Pavano

Liriano

The other four are competing for what should be two spots:

Duensing 

Blackburn

Slowey

Baker

Bullpen  (7 spots)

Six are set:

Capps

Rauch

Crain

Guerrier

Fuentes

Mijares

Competing for at most one spot along with the two extra starters:

Flores, Perkins, Manship, Bunett

Not likely:

Neshek, Delaney, Slama ( the Twins web site shows the last two no longer on the active roster - but I missed the move if they have been taken off) 

Analysis

The starting lineup is set. I think the nine guys listed will start every game unless something goes seriously haywire. Given that the backups are there as pinch runners, pinch hitters, late defensive replacements and in case of injuries. That makes their role pretty limited. The main roles will be pinch running for Thome and late inning defensive replacement for Kubel. Repko is the only fourth outfielder available so he is set. It seems to me that  Butera is the odd man out if the Twins go with five bench players. The backup catcher is not going to play and Morales gives them a switch hitter on the bench. That said, do you really need three utility infielders? I don't know if that makes sense or not. We haven't seen much of Nick Punto recently and he may be the odd man out if the Twins go with 12 pitchers. Tolbert and Casilla have some of his flexibility and both are probably now faster than Punto. Punto's advantage is experience and his defense.

In terms of the starters, I think Duensing has all but locked up one of the spots in the rotation unless something happens over the last couple weeks to change that. I think Baker ought to be the other starter if he is healthy. While Blackburn has done well since returning, he has some experience in the bullpen and his sinker ought to work well there. Even if the Twins go with five starters, I think Slowey is the odd man out. 

The ideal thing would be for the Twins to have another lefty in the bullpen who can get lefties out. That would be Flores, but he has not pitched that well. Despite being a lefty, Perkins does not really do that well against left handed hitters. I don't think any of the other candidates for a spot in the bullpen are better than either Blackburn or Slowey. I would go with Blackburn as the seventh guy in the bullpen. 

My own take would be to go with five starters and seven relievers, which would put both Slowey and Blackburn on the roster. That means going with four players on the bench - Morales, Repko, Casilla and Tolbert. There are several reasons for that. One is that I don't think the Twins have a "big game" starter on their staff that you would definitely want out there twice in a five game series. Liriano is closest to that, but he hasn't really shown that he can step up under pressure. If Liriano starts game one, he will be available in the bullpen for games three four and five. I don't know that you want to use him that way, but it gives you another option. 

Another reason, is I just don't see much of a role for three extra infielders. While they might make a late inning defensive replacement for Hardy or Valentine, I don't think it is really necessary. And that is the only role Punto has. 

To be clear, this is what I think the Twins should do. My guess is that Punto will be on the roster and Slowey won't be. Its also possible Gardy will go with three catchers. Butera has been with the team the entire year, removing him for the playoffs is the kind of thing the Twins usually don't do. He may not have much of a role, but he belongs in the dugout. Morales is the only one of the reserves who really fits a pinch hitter role. I think he will be a bat on the bench regardless of the decision about Butera. 

Of course, we are still a couple weeks away from having any decisions made. Its possible one of the starters will pitch themselves out of a job. And, of course, Morneau may come back. Or that Hardy's arm will still be sore and the extra infielders will be needed to give him a rest. S I am jumping the gun, but thats what we fans can do. The Twins still need to nail this down and then they have some decisions to make. 

Are the Sox finished?

The short answer is of whether the sox are finished is no. But you have to identify which "sox" you are talking about. 

The Yankees are now in second place in the East, six games ahead of the Red Sox, who they play six times before the end of the season. In short, the Red Sox still have their fate in their own hands. They just need to sweep the Yankees in those six games to reach the playoffs as the wildcard. Not likely. But in addition to the Red Sox, the Yankees also have four games against Tampa and three against Toronto. And they aren't exactly hot, having gone 2-8 in their last ten games If they continue to struggle like that in the next ten games, they could put themselves within hunting distance when they face the Red Sox in the season's final series.. 

Which brings us to the other "sox", the White Sox. They are 8.5 games behind the Yankees for the wild card spot. They are only 8 games behind the Twins. But the Twins are not playing the remainder of their schedule against the likes of Tampa and the Red Sox. They could take advantage of a Yankee collapse with a hot streak of their own. A Yankee collapse would leave three teams vying for the wild card spot and the White Sox could sneak in while the "giants" in the east beat each other up.

Top Ten Twins Prospects

This is a top ten list for 2010-2011.

Once again, they are in no particular order, but simply the players I think are likely to contribute the most at the major league level at some point in the next 8 years. I look out 8 years in terms of expected contributions, because most players have reached their peak by the time they are 27. While talented young players sometimes get to the major leagues quickly, it also sometimes takes several more years before they show their full talent. That time frame even may be a little longer this year for some of the international signings who will still be in their mid-20's eight years from now. 

I don't rank prospects because frankly just choosing the "best" prospects is at best a rough guess. Deciding whether Max Kepler or Miguel Sano will produce more at the major league level between now and 2018 is way beyond what is reasonable with the information available to the average fan like me. It is probably way beyond the ability of professional scouts who get paid to do this and have both the opportunity and experience to evaluate them first hand.   

As always, I am not considering players drafted this summer for the list. I also leave off the international signings from this year.

Here is a link to last year's top ten: http://grannybaseball.blogspot.com/2009/10/top-ten-twins-prospects.html

Ben Revere (OF)
The last couple years, I have said the question was whether Revere will develop the power the Twins saw when they drafted him. It appears the answer is no.  Even without home run power, he has speed and  high batting average that will allow him to contribute at the major league level. Perhaps even next year. 

Kyle Gibson

Gibson ran through three levels in his first professional season. He struggled a bit to start at both AA and AAA, but then settled in and pitched very well. He looks like he will be ready to join the rotation next season if there is an opening. 

Aaron Hicks

Nothing much changed with Hicks this year. He has shown himself to be exactly what the Twins expected, a highly athletic outfielder whose bat is also going to be special. He showed some progress with a good finish at Beloit. He may develop later than Revere. He is likely going up the ladder one level at a time, so he is still several years away.  But like the tortoise and the hare, Hicks is likely to surpass Revere at the major league level. 

Carlos Gutierrez

Gutierrez lacks the secondary pitches to still be on track to be a starter. It appears the Twins are ready to  settle for the late inning bullpen role many projected for Gutierrez when he was drafted. He will pitch in the AFL this fall and may compete for a bullpen spot next spring. He will likely start next year at AAA. 

Chris Parmelee

Parmelee was demoted from AA to Fort Myers, but then had a second half breakout after returning to AA. His bat started to display the potential the Twins saw when he was drafted. The power still hasn't fully developed, but that is a matter of time if he continues to hit like he did the last half at New Britain. He will play in the AFL again this fall.  He has been playing the outfield, but he may end up at first base.

David Bromberg

I have been a skeptic on  Bromberg. But he pitched well this year at Rochester after a mis-season promotion from New Britain. He is only 22 and clearly held his own against the older competition. He projects as a mid-rotation starter or setup guy in the major leagues. Despite being at AAA, he is likely a ways away from being ready to pitch in the big leagues. Gibson, Gutierez and Bullock are all ahead of him

Billy Bullock

Bullock struck out 105 batters in 74 innings at two levels in his first full year in professional ball. He actually got more strike outs after being promoted to New Britain. Unfortunately, he also walked 43 hitters. If he can refine his control, he looks like a guy who will be a major factor in the Twins future bullpen. That could happen next year, but he is probably a couple years away.

Miguel Sano

Sano was a highly touted international signing. At 17, he showed why in his professional debut. He already hits for average and power. He played a little shortstop, but his future is probably at third base. His bat will play there if it develops as projected.

Max Kepler-Rozycki

Like Sano, Kepler was a highly touted international prospect, but from baseball poor Europe rather than the baseball rich Dominican. Kepler did not show Sano's power, but he has a solid bat combined with speed. Because he plays the outfield, he is probably not in Sano's class. But  he showed why some people saw him as the best prospect to ever come out of Europe even if that is a pretty low bar. 

Angel Morales (OF)

Morales still has outstanding speed and power, although his power numbers were down at Fort Myers. This is a guy who could be as a superstar or a super bust. Morales continued problems making contact are a bad sign but he is still very young. He will likely play winter ball so we should see continued improvement next spring. It will be interesting to see whether he moves up to AA to start next season.

Dropped out of top ten - what I said last year with comment:

Trevor Plouffe (SS)

Last year: "Last year, I said Plouffe is probably still a year away from taking over as the Twins shortstop. That still may be true, but he came on the second half of the season at AAA. His errors remain a worry, but it is apparent his bat is just about ready. He will get a chance to win the shortstop position in spring training, but is likely to end up back at AAA"

Of course, once the Hardy trade was made, Plouffe's chance was gone. Its important to remember Plouffe remains a young player. He did not look like he has star potential in his major league debut. He could still be the Twins shortstop if and when Hardy leaves. But he is looking a bit like Brendan Harris, enough bat and glove to play in the big leagues, but not enough of either to be a major contributor. 


Deolis Guerra (P)

Last year: "Guerra was a touted part of the Santana deal but the Twins turned him into a project, working to improve his delivery. He has made progress this year, finishing the year at AA. Next year he will likely start the season at AA again. But if he develops as expected, he will likely have the opportunity to show his stuff in the major leagues at sometime next year."

Guerra faded at AA as the season progressed. His inability to keep up with the league is a bad sign.  

Wilson Ramos (C)

Last year: "A power hitting catcher with a plus arm and defensive skills. You can't get much better than that. I am just repeating what I said last year. If he can stay healthy for a full season, this kid has star written all over him."

Ramos was traded. He still has the tools to be a major league regular catcher, but there were some comments indicating the Twins had questions about his weight. Even if his weight problems reduce his mobility behind the plate, his bat and arm should still keep him in the major leagues. But it might be more as a backup catcher, DH and bat off the bench, rather than an allstar.

Rene Tosoni (OF)

Last year: "Tosoni is in the Arizona League. was injured this year. He hits for both average and with enough power to take a corner outfield spot. He is almost ready to contribute at the major league level. The question is how the Twins find a spot for him."

Tosoni was injured most of this year. He still has potential, but its not clear that he will stay healthy long enough to ever develop that potential. And he didn't show much at AA before he was hurt.

Tyler Robertson (P)

Last year: "Robertson remains one of the Twins top young prospects. He is still a couple years away but he has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter"

Robertson remains a prospect. But he really struggled at New Britain this year. He will pitch in the Arizona Fall League and that may determine whether he is protected on the roster.  He has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter but he is looking more like a bust right now. And he is likely at least a couple years away.

As I said above, I left last summer's Twins draft choices off the list just as I did last year. Shooter Hunt continued to give a good demonstration of why waiting for players to get a full year as a professional under their belt is a good idea. Sometimes players just don't make the transition to the professional game. Alex Wimmer may be great, but it would be a good idea to see how he does pitching every five days before making any decisions beyond what we knew when he was drafted. I have yet to see a first round choice who would not project as a top ten prospect in the fall after they were drafted, so you can just stick him on the end of this list if you are so inclined.

Cliff Lee

So the rumor mongers are going at it over the Twins making a deal for Cliff Lee. Those rumors include having the Twins givie up both of their top two prospects, Wilson Ramos and Aaron Hicks. There are a couple of things to think about with this kind of deal.

First, Lee is a free agent after this year and it is unlikely the Twins are going to be able to resign him. That means they are getting about two to three months out of him, plus whatever draft picks are provided in compensation for losing him. Normally adding a guy to the top of your rotation is a major upgrade since they replace the worst guy in the rotation. But Lee is likely to replace Slowey or Blackburn.  If you look at the ups and downs of those three pitchers, Lee is better than the other two, but there are periods where his performance was worse than either Slowey or Blackburn at their best. Lee  is a likely upgrade in the long run, but the Twins won't have him for the long run. Instead, they will get two or three months out of him. Those could be his great months, his mediocre months or his terrible months. Or he could get hurt and produce nothing. In any case, the Twins will never get another bite of the apple.

The second issue is the price. Ramos and Hicks are both guys who project as major league stars or maybe even superstars. The Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter type of players that you build championships around. When you give up one of those guys, you don't  find a replacement. Of course, Hicks is a long way from the big leagues and not dominating the Midwest league, Ramos has struggled some at Rochester. For people who re-evaluate prospects once a month those things are meaningful. But no one really should have changed their opinion about either one based on this season. There just hasn't been enough of it.  Rolling the dice on Lee is one thing, betting the house on him is another.

Which brings us to those draft choices. Its important to remember that which draft choices the Twins get depends on where Lee signs. If he signs with someone in the top half of the draft, the Twins get a second round choice - or lower. The only way they get a first round choice is if Lee sgns with a team in the second half of the draft that didn't sign a higher ranked free agent. They will also get a supplemental pick. The drop off after the first few picks of the draft is almost a cliff and it really only levels out some when you get to the 100th player chosen.  Its important to remember that the new compensation system for unsigned players is pushing even first round draft choices down the ladder some.  

The last time the Twins traded top prospects in this way was sending Denny Neagle and Midre Cummings to the Pirates for John Smiley to replace Jack Morris. Smiley didn't get them to the playoffs, the rotation had holes in it for years while Neagle became a 20 game winner. And the draft choices received when Smiley left? They mostly turned to dust as most draft choices do. Ramos and/or Hicks for Lee is a bad gamble, sending both of them is the kind of deal that keeps teams perpetually in the second division.