Here is my projected Twins opening day lineup:
Span - 8
Carroll - 6
Mauer - 2
Morneau - DH
Willingham - 7
Doumit - 9
Valencia - 5
Parmelee - 3
Casilla - 4
Pavano - 1
Its definitely a hitters lineup. Although Mauer and Morneau are the only real standouts, there aren't any really weak bats in the bunch either. Defensively, Mauer, Casilla and Span are the only ones who are going to add much. The rest are barely adequate to mediocre defensively, with Doumit the weakest link. This is not a team that is going to save its pitchers a lot with its defense.
Monday, April 02, 2012
Sunday, April 01, 2012
Bullpen Competition Extended
With Baker on the DL and Marquis likely on bereavement leave the bullpen competition is over for the moment with the Twins going with four starters:
Pavano,
Liriano,
Hendricks,
Blackburn;
and eight relievers:
Capps,
Perkins,
Duensing,
Swarzak,
Burton,
Maloney,
Gray,
Burnett;
Casey Fien was the odd man out.
The Twins will need to add a fifth starter by the 9th game of the season. Which means there is still competition for the last bullpen spot. Burnett is the only one of the relievers in that competition that has options left. It is likely he will be the odd man out.
The other wrinkle here is that Terry Ryan suggested that if Hendricks pitches well, he could claim a permanent spot in the rotation. That would mean moving a starter to the bullpen, pushing a second reliever out. So while spring training is over, the competition for spots on the roster really isn't.
Pavano,
Liriano,
Hendricks,
Blackburn;
and eight relievers:
Capps,
Perkins,
Duensing,
Swarzak,
Burton,
Maloney,
Gray,
Burnett;
Casey Fien was the odd man out.
The Twins will need to add a fifth starter by the 9th game of the season. Which means there is still competition for the last bullpen spot. Burnett is the only one of the relievers in that competition that has options left. It is likely he will be the odd man out.
The other wrinkle here is that Terry Ryan suggested that if Hendricks pitches well, he could claim a permanent spot in the rotation. That would mean moving a starter to the bullpen, pushing a second reliever out. So while spring training is over, the competition for spots on the roster really isn't.
The Ilusion of Intellectual Advantages
The New York Times has an article that relies on the modern media narrative that intellectual innovation is the key to competition. There is actually little evidence this is true in major league baseball.
For instance, the claims that Oakland's use of "moneyball" techniques made it successful are largely contradicted by the facts. Instead, Oakland became successful the old fashioned way. They drafted and signed players like Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Muldur. They complemented that core or homegrown stars with relatively cheap veterans. Almost none of these decisions had anything to do with statistical analysis, nor with finding market niches others were ignoring. Since they adopted those "innovative" techniques under Billy Beane, Oakland has not been noticeably successful. Certainly not when compared to the "tradition bound" Twins.
Instead of innovation, teams that have success rely on better execution of established methods. They have better scouts, who do a better job of evaluating a player. They have farm systems that do a better job of developing players skills. They spend money on good players and don't tie up payroll in over-priced failures. They avoid mistakes. Of course if they are the Yankees, they can afford more mistakes than normal markets, but even the Yankees can struggle when they make too many bad choices.
The New York Times focuses on the things of interest to fans. Team budgets and evaluating the players on the field. But the team success may have more to do with how teams are managed. Do they put the best scouts in the field? Do they have a minor league staff that brings out the best in players and trains them to play the game right? Do they have a development philosophy and values that run throughout the whole organization?
There may be some "big ideas" that will help make a difference in getting those results right. But mostly it will depend on the baseball abilities of the top management, attracting the right baseball people and the willingness of the owners to let the baseball people run the organization. Innovative ideas are the least of what is important.
For instance, the claims that Oakland's use of "moneyball" techniques made it successful are largely contradicted by the facts. Instead, Oakland became successful the old fashioned way. They drafted and signed players like Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Muldur. They complemented that core or homegrown stars with relatively cheap veterans. Almost none of these decisions had anything to do with statistical analysis, nor with finding market niches others were ignoring. Since they adopted those "innovative" techniques under Billy Beane, Oakland has not been noticeably successful. Certainly not when compared to the "tradition bound" Twins.
Instead of innovation, teams that have success rely on better execution of established methods. They have better scouts, who do a better job of evaluating a player. They have farm systems that do a better job of developing players skills. They spend money on good players and don't tie up payroll in over-priced failures. They avoid mistakes. Of course if they are the Yankees, they can afford more mistakes than normal markets, but even the Yankees can struggle when they make too many bad choices.
The New York Times focuses on the things of interest to fans. Team budgets and evaluating the players on the field. But the team success may have more to do with how teams are managed. Do they put the best scouts in the field? Do they have a minor league staff that brings out the best in players and trains them to play the game right? Do they have a development philosophy and values that run throughout the whole organization?
There may be some "big ideas" that will help make a difference in getting those results right. But mostly it will depend on the baseball abilities of the top management, attracting the right baseball people and the willingness of the owners to let the baseball people run the organization. Innovative ideas are the least of what is important.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Marquis, Hendricks, Swarzak or Maloney?
There were several developments recently that have put the Twins starting rotation into a state of flux.
Jason Marguis has been gone for an extended period because his daughter fell of her bike and was seriously injured. Apparently he has been pitching with some high school kids to keep his arm in shape, but unless he returns soon its not likely he will be ready to pitch the first week of the season.
Scott Baker was put on the DL today. This is not all that significant, but it guarantees he will not pitch the home opener. Since the Twins have a day off after their first four games, they won't need a fifth starter until the second time through the rotation. Baker will be eligible to come off the DL before then.
Liam Hendricks had another good outing yesterday, giving up one hit in five innings. And today Anthony Swarzak, who is being stretched out to make him available to start, went six innings and gave up only one run. Earlier this week Matt Maloney, also being stretched out, had a solid outing Thursday but only went three innings.
Its likely Nick Blackburn will take Baker's place for the home opener. The need for Hendricks, Swarzak or Maloney to start depends on whether Marquis is ready to pitch a week from tomorrow in the final game of the Baltimore series. If not the Twins will at least need a spot starter for that game. If Marquis is ready, then it won't be until Sunday April 15th that would need a starter if Baker isn't ready by then.
It seemed likely that Hendricks would take the spot start on Sunday the 8th in Baltimore. But Swarzak's outing today might change that. It might depend on how likely it is that Baker and Marsuis are both going to be available the second time through the rotation. As I said wrote inyesterday's post on the bullpen competition, the decision to keep Hendricks on the roster means one less spot for bullpen candidates.
Jason Marguis has been gone for an extended period because his daughter fell of her bike and was seriously injured. Apparently he has been pitching with some high school kids to keep his arm in shape, but unless he returns soon its not likely he will be ready to pitch the first week of the season.
Scott Baker was put on the DL today. This is not all that significant, but it guarantees he will not pitch the home opener. Since the Twins have a day off after their first four games, they won't need a fifth starter until the second time through the rotation. Baker will be eligible to come off the DL before then.
Liam Hendricks had another good outing yesterday, giving up one hit in five innings. And today Anthony Swarzak, who is being stretched out to make him available to start, went six innings and gave up only one run. Earlier this week Matt Maloney, also being stretched out, had a solid outing Thursday but only went three innings.
Its likely Nick Blackburn will take Baker's place for the home opener. The need for Hendricks, Swarzak or Maloney to start depends on whether Marquis is ready to pitch a week from tomorrow in the final game of the Baltimore series. If not the Twins will at least need a spot starter for that game. If Marquis is ready, then it won't be until Sunday April 15th that would need a starter if Baker isn't ready by then.
It seemed likely that Hendricks would take the spot start on Sunday the 8th in Baltimore. But Swarzak's outing today might change that. It might depend on how likely it is that Baker and Marsuis are both going to be available the second time through the rotation. As I said wrote inyesterday's post on the bullpen competition, the decision to keep Hendricks on the roster means one less spot for bullpen candidates.
Twins Bench Competition Over?
Butera was sent to AAA today along with Hollimon. This all but ends the competition for bench spots, unless the Twins go outside the organization for a utility infielder. Dinkelman and Towles are still in the major league camp, but its not likely either one will make the team. The Twins reportedly told Butera they were going with two catchers.
This almost certainly means that Morneau is going to start the year as DH, leaving Doumit playing in the field where he will still be available to backup Mauer. With Morneau at DH, Mauer will also likely have to play some first base and/or outfield if they want to keep his bat in the lineup on days he doesn't catch. So the roster looks like this:
Mauer c/1b/of
Doumit c/1b/of
Morneau DH/1b
Parmelee 1b/of
Casilla 2b/ss
Carroll ss
Valencia 3b
Plouffe rf,lf,1b,2b?
Willingham lf
Span cf
Revere cf, rf, lf
Hughes 2b, 1b, 3b
Burroughs 3b, 1b
Plouffe was supposed to be moved to the outfield, but he is at second base in today's game. So it looks like they may be looking to have him play some infield. I said above that Dinkelman had no chance of making the roster, but Gardy could still surprise us by keeping him as the fourth outfielder/infielder instead of Burroughs or Revere. That seems very doubtful though. The more likely upset of the apple cart would be a legitimate shortstop from outside the organization to use as a utility infielder.
Update: I forgot to mention Brian Dozier. A decision to install him as the regular at shortstop would be another option. I don't think that is likely, but it would leave Carroll and Casilla to share second base and the utility role.
This almost certainly means that Morneau is going to start the year as DH, leaving Doumit playing in the field where he will still be available to backup Mauer. With Morneau at DH, Mauer will also likely have to play some first base and/or outfield if they want to keep his bat in the lineup on days he doesn't catch. So the roster looks like this:
Mauer c/1b/of
Doumit c/1b/of
Morneau DH/1b
Parmelee 1b/of
Casilla 2b/ss
Carroll ss
Valencia 3b
Plouffe rf,lf,1b,2b?
Willingham lf
Span cf
Revere cf, rf, lf
Hughes 2b, 1b, 3b
Burroughs 3b, 1b
Plouffe was supposed to be moved to the outfield, but he is at second base in today's game. So it looks like they may be looking to have him play some infield. I said above that Dinkelman had no chance of making the roster, but Gardy could still surprise us by keeping him as the fourth outfielder/infielder instead of Burroughs or Revere. That seems very doubtful though. The more likely upset of the apple cart would be a legitimate shortstop from outside the organization to use as a utility infielder.
Update: I forgot to mention Brian Dozier. A decision to install him as the regular at shortstop would be another option. I don't think that is likely, but it would leave Carroll and Casilla to share second base and the utility role.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Ranking the Twins Drafts
The Twins will draft second in the June draft, the highest spot they have had since they took Joe Mauer as the number one choice in 2001. I thought it would useful to evaluate the drafts from 1994-2003. I will rank more recent drafts separately since, for the most part, its too early to really evaluate their overall success. Players in parenthesis were taken after the top 100 players.
2001 - Mauer, Morales, (Blackburn)
1999 - Bowen, Morneau
1994 - Walker, Pierzynski, (Koskie)
2002 - Span, Crain, (Neshek)
1997 - Cuddyer, LeCroy, (Romero)
2003 - Baker
1996 - Jones, Allen, (Ryan, Moeller, Lincoln)
2000 - (Kubel)
1995 - Redman, (Mientkiewicz)
1998 -
If you look at the 2004 draft below, you understand why its too early to evaluate recent drafts. The only "proven" players on the list are Tolbert and Perkins. That is assuming last year was proof for Perkins and Tolbert contributed enough to prove anything.
The rankings here, not surprisingly, are almost entirely in chronological order. And its not impossible the 2004 draft will move ahead of the 2005 draft. The players in parenthesis are players who are now recognized as significant prospects but were taken after the first 100 picks.
2005 - Garza, Slowey, Duensing, (Burnett, Tosoni)
2004 - Plouffe, Perkins, Swarzak, Waldrop, (Tolbert)
2006 - Parmelee, Benson, Robertson, (Dinkelman, Manship, Valencia)
2007 - Revere, Rams
2008 - Hicks, Guttierez, Lanigan
2009 - Gibson, (Herrmann, Dozier)
2010 - Wimmers, Goodrum
2011 - Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Boer
If you compare the two lists, the biggest difference is the presence of two MVP's, Mauer and Morneau, on the first list. Hicks is probably the only player on the second list who looks to have that kind of potential. Of course, Morneau didn't look likely to play at that level either shortly after he was drafted.
The real point of this is that the Twins have done a pretty good job with past drafts and it may be as late as 2020 before we can fully evaluate this summer's draft.
2001 - Mauer, Morales, (Blackburn)
1999 - Bowen, Morneau
1994 - Walker, Pierzynski, (Koskie)
2002 - Span, Crain, (Neshek)
1997 - Cuddyer, LeCroy, (Romero)
2003 - Baker
1996 - Jones, Allen, (Ryan, Moeller, Lincoln)
2000 - (Kubel)
1995 - Redman, (Mientkiewicz)
1998 -
If you look at the 2004 draft below, you understand why its too early to evaluate recent drafts. The only "proven" players on the list are Tolbert and Perkins. That is assuming last year was proof for Perkins and Tolbert contributed enough to prove anything.
The rankings here, not surprisingly, are almost entirely in chronological order. And its not impossible the 2004 draft will move ahead of the 2005 draft. The players in parenthesis are players who are now recognized as significant prospects but were taken after the first 100 picks.
2005 - Garza, Slowey, Duensing, (Burnett, Tosoni)
2004 - Plouffe, Perkins, Swarzak, Waldrop, (Tolbert)
2006 - Parmelee, Benson, Robertson, (Dinkelman, Manship, Valencia)
2007 - Revere, Rams
2008 - Hicks, Guttierez, Lanigan
2009 - Gibson, (Herrmann, Dozier)
2010 - Wimmers, Goodrum
2011 - Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Boer
If you compare the two lists, the biggest difference is the presence of two MVP's, Mauer and Morneau, on the first list. Hicks is probably the only player on the second list who looks to have that kind of potential. Of course, Morneau didn't look likely to play at that level either shortly after he was drafted.
The real point of this is that the Twins have done a pretty good job with past drafts and it may be as late as 2020 before we can fully evaluate this summer's draft.
Baker and Marquis Scramble Bullpen Competition
The last couple days haven't really sorted anything out. The most important development was that Kyle Waldrop has a sore elbow. It may not be serious, but they are shutting him down and he probably has lost his immediate chance to make the roster.
The other important development was not in the bullpen, but will likely effect decisions there. Both Baker and Marquis now in question for opening day. Baker could start the year on the DL and Marquis on the bereavement list. That would open up two roster spots and Terry Ryan has said they will have 12 pitchers on the roster regardless. One of those could by Liam Hendricks, if they decide they need a starter immediately. But at least one roster spot would go to one of the bullpen candidates.
Maloney was stretched out today and went three innings, giving up a run on 4 hits and a walk. Burton followed him with two innings, giving up one run on a hit and walk. Fien also went two innings, giving up a run on 2 hits, while striking out 3. Burnett went one inning and gave up one unearned run on two hits. This was Burnett's second outing in a row, he gave up a home run and a walk in one inning on Wednesday.
Its possible the bullpen competition is over. If neither Baker nor Marquis are on the opening day roster, there is temporarily room for Gray, Burnett and Fien. But its more likely that Hendricks will take a spot as a starter, so the competition is for one permanent spot and one temporary.
There are a couple other considerations for the temporary spots. Maloney, Gray and Burnett are on the roster. Burton and Fien aren't, but the Twins have room for them. Burnett still has options, I don't believe the others do.
What that means is that Maloney and Gray would need to pass through waivers to be sent to the minors. That is also likely true for Burton and Fien once they are added to the roster. So its unlikely either of those two would win a temporary spot that would expose them to waivers when Baker and Marquis returned. If Burton and Fien make the roster, its likely with the idea they will stay in the majors when Baker and Marquis return. Gray will need to pass through waivers whether now or in the future. And Burnett can be optioned to the minors at any time.
Here is how I think things stand now:
Capps
Perkins
Duensing
Swarzak
Maloney
Burton
Gray
Burnett
Hendricks
Fien
Waldrop
The other important development was not in the bullpen, but will likely effect decisions there. Both Baker and Marquis now in question for opening day. Baker could start the year on the DL and Marquis on the bereavement list. That would open up two roster spots and Terry Ryan has said they will have 12 pitchers on the roster regardless. One of those could by Liam Hendricks, if they decide they need a starter immediately. But at least one roster spot would go to one of the bullpen candidates.
Maloney was stretched out today and went three innings, giving up a run on 4 hits and a walk. Burton followed him with two innings, giving up one run on a hit and walk. Fien also went two innings, giving up a run on 2 hits, while striking out 3. Burnett went one inning and gave up one unearned run on two hits. This was Burnett's second outing in a row, he gave up a home run and a walk in one inning on Wednesday.
Its possible the bullpen competition is over. If neither Baker nor Marquis are on the opening day roster, there is temporarily room for Gray, Burnett and Fien. But its more likely that Hendricks will take a spot as a starter, so the competition is for one permanent spot and one temporary.
There are a couple other considerations for the temporary spots. Maloney, Gray and Burnett are on the roster. Burton and Fien aren't, but the Twins have room for them. Burnett still has options, I don't believe the others do.
What that means is that Maloney and Gray would need to pass through waivers to be sent to the minors. That is also likely true for Burton and Fien once they are added to the roster. So its unlikely either of those two would win a temporary spot that would expose them to waivers when Baker and Marquis returned. If Burton and Fien make the roster, its likely with the idea they will stay in the majors when Baker and Marquis return. Gray will need to pass through waivers whether now or in the future. And Burnett can be optioned to the minors at any time.
Here is how I think things stand now:
Capps
Perkins
Duensing
Swarzak
Maloney
Burton
Gray
Burnett
Hendricks
Fien
Waldrop
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