Its tempting to compare the Twins from last fall with the team going into this spring training. And the team that was there last fall was already a lot different from the team that played most of the season. The Twins team that started the 2012 season is long gone, but its interesting to see what has changed in the past year. Between changes last season and moves last winter, the 2013 Twins looks very different from the team that entered spring training a year ago.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Twins Bullpen for 2013
The Twins bullpen has five members returning:
Glen Perkins, closer,
Jarad Burton, primary setup,
Brian Duensing, lefty setup
Alex Burnett, middle relief
Anthony Swarzak, long relief
Swarzak just broke several ribs and may or may not be ready by opening day. Had he stayed healthy, he might have had a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation. But assuming he gets healthy, the Twins will need to find at least two more guys to fill out the bullpen.
Glen Perkins, closer,
Jarad Burton, primary setup,
Brian Duensing, lefty setup
Alex Burnett, middle relief
Anthony Swarzak, long relief
Swarzak just broke several ribs and may or may not be ready by opening day. Had he stayed healthy, he might have had a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation. But assuming he gets healthy, the Twins will need to find at least two more guys to fill out the bullpen.
Twins Pitching - Starting Out Average
Last year the Twins starting pitching stunk. But that has almost nothing to do with this year. The only pitcher who is likely to return from the starting staff at the end of last season is Scott Diamond who spent the first month of 2012 at AAA. Three of this year's projected starters, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Corriea and Vance Worley didn't throw a pitch for the Twins. So when evaluating where the Twins are with their rotation going into spring training, the results of last year's debacle in the rotation aren't a meaningful starting point.
But what happens if you look at the individual performances of the projected rotation? Start with Pelfrey, Diamond, Correia and Worley . Add Cole de Vries as a fifth starter since he was the best of the rest for the Twins last year. Now assume all five stay healthy, start 32+ games and pitch at the same average rates they did in 2012, using Pelfrey's 2011 season since he hardly pitched last year. You end up with a major league average starting staff in terms of earned runs and innings pitched.
But what happens if you look at the individual performances of the projected rotation? Start with Pelfrey, Diamond, Correia and Worley . Add Cole de Vries as a fifth starter since he was the best of the rest for the Twins last year. Now assume all five stay healthy, start 32+ games and pitch at the same average rates they did in 2012, using Pelfrey's 2011 season since he hardly pitched last year. You end up with a major league average starting staff in terms of earned runs and innings pitched.
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Best Pitcher of Era? Not Jack Morris
Jack Morris is, at best a borderline HOF candidate. You can make some arguments for his membership, but the claim that he was "the best pitcher of his era" is ludicrous on its face. Here is a list of some of some of the pitchers who won the Sporting News Pitcher of the Year or Cy Young awards while Morris was pitching:
Nolan Ryan
Steve Carlton
Roger Clemens
Tom Glavine
Randy Johnson
Rick Sutcliffe
Greg Maddux
Gaylord Perry
Of course all those pitchers also pitched before Morris began his career or after he ended it. But, not only did Morris never once win the Cy Young award, he only got 6 first place votes over his entire career. In short, during his entire career he was never considered the best pitcher even in the American League.
The only way you can claim Morris was the "best of his era" is by making that question the same as asking who was the best pitcher who started his career in 1977 and ended it in 1994. There isn't really much, if any, competition for that title.
Nolan Ryan
Steve Carlton
Roger Clemens
Tom Glavine
Randy Johnson
Rick Sutcliffe
Greg Maddux
Gaylord Perry
Of course all those pitchers also pitched before Morris began his career or after he ended it. But, not only did Morris never once win the Cy Young award, he only got 6 first place votes over his entire career. In short, during his entire career he was never considered the best pitcher even in the American League.
The only way you can claim Morris was the "best of his era" is by making that question the same as asking who was the best pitcher who started his career in 1977 and ended it in 1994. There isn't really much, if any, competition for that title.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Which Twins Pitchers "Gave their team a chance to Win" in 1012
One of the cliches that you will hear from the Twins is about wanting starters who will "give their team a chance to win" each time they take the mound. Obviously the pitcher is only one part of winning and losing.
But I thought it would be interesting to look at last year's starters through the prism of whether the Twins won. Here they are in order of team winning percentage:
Sam Deduno 8-7
Scott Diamond 14-13
Cole De Vries 8-8
PJ Walters 6-6
Nick Blackburn 8-11
Carl Pavano 4-7
Francisco Liriano 6-11
Esmerling Vasquez 2-4
Liam Hendricks 5-11
Jason Marquis 2-5
Brian Duensing 3-8
Anthony Swarzak 0-5
There has been talk of putting either Duensing or Swarzak into the rotation. But, as you can see, the Twins lost a lot of games last year with those two starting. A higher percentage than with any of the other starters. Likewise there are a lot of complaints about Nick Blackburn, but the Twins actually won a higher percentage of games when he was starting than with most of their other starters.
I think what this really shows is that no matter who was on the mound, the Twins weren't winning often enough to be in the pennant race. Terry Ryan has said that while pitching was clearly a big problem, it wasn't the only problem. This may just confirm that. But it clearly means that simply finding five Scott Diamonds isn't going to make them competitive.
Perhaps Vance Worley is better than any of the guys the Twins put out there last year. Its also possible that some of the other players above, including Diamond, will be better next season.
The Twins had a combined record of 25-45 with the pitchers who started the year in the rotation, Blackburn, Pavano, Liriano, Hendricks and Marquis. Next year's group can't do much worse.
Sam Deduno 8-7
Scott Diamond 14-13
Cole De Vries 8-8
PJ Walters 6-6
Nick Blackburn 8-11
Carl Pavano 4-7
Francisco Liriano 6-11
Esmerling Vasquez 2-4
Liam Hendricks 5-11
Jason Marquis 2-5
Brian Duensing 3-8
Anthony Swarzak 0-5
There has been talk of putting either Duensing or Swarzak into the rotation. But, as you can see, the Twins lost a lot of games last year with those two starting. A higher percentage than with any of the other starters. Likewise there are a lot of complaints about Nick Blackburn, but the Twins actually won a higher percentage of games when he was starting than with most of their other starters.
I think what this really shows is that no matter who was on the mound, the Twins weren't winning often enough to be in the pennant race. Terry Ryan has said that while pitching was clearly a big problem, it wasn't the only problem. This may just confirm that. But it clearly means that simply finding five Scott Diamonds isn't going to make them competitive.
Perhaps Vance Worley is better than any of the guys the Twins put out there last year. Its also possible that some of the other players above, including Diamond, will be better next season.
The Twins had a combined record of 25-45 with the pitchers who started the year in the rotation, Blackburn, Pavano, Liriano, Hendricks and Marquis. Next year's group can't do much worse.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Kevin Correa = Scott Diamond
You can make what you want of this, but last year Kevin Correia and Scott Diamond had remarkably similar results.
In terms of innings pitched, Diamond ranked 80th and Correia 81st among major league pitchers.
Diamond faced 714 batters and got 173 innings pitched. Correia faced 728 batters and got 171 innings pitched.
Diamond gave up 184 hits, Correia 176.
Diamond struck out 90 and Correia 89.
The only large differences are that Correia walks a lot more batters, 46 compared to 31 for Diamond. And, probably at least partially as a result, Diamond gave up fewer earned runs, 68 compared to Correia's 80.
To be blunt, none of those differences are really very meaningful The obvious advantage Diamond has is that he is young and therefore likely to improve. The advantage Correia has is that he has a longer track record and last year was not far from his career norms. But, based solely on their performance last year, these two can be expected to produce at about the same level.
As I said at the beginning, you can make what you want of that. I think it ought to temper any certainty you have about Diamond or doubts you might have about Correia.
In terms of innings pitched, Diamond ranked 80th and Correia 81st among major league pitchers.
Diamond faced 714 batters and got 173 innings pitched. Correia faced 728 batters and got 171 innings pitched.
Diamond gave up 184 hits, Correia 176.
Diamond struck out 90 and Correia 89.
The only large differences are that Correia walks a lot more batters, 46 compared to 31 for Diamond. And, probably at least partially as a result, Diamond gave up fewer earned runs, 68 compared to Correia's 80.
To be blunt, none of those differences are really very meaningful The obvious advantage Diamond has is that he is young and therefore likely to improve. The advantage Correia has is that he has a longer track record and last year was not far from his career norms. But, based solely on their performance last year, these two can be expected to produce at about the same level.
As I said at the beginning, you can make what you want of that. I think it ought to temper any certainty you have about Diamond or doubts you might have about Correia.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Twins Pitching Takes Shape
From their reaction, some Twins fans have been in denial about the real state of the Twins starting pitching. The idea seems to be that the Twins need to sign a high quality free agent and then fill out the rotation around them with guys from their system. But that isn't really true. The Twins went into the off-season needing at least two and probably three starters from outside the organization.
So far they have added two starters Vance Worley and Kevin Correia. I haven't heard that they are done and they still have a roster spot open. But whether they like it or not they may not be able to sign another pitcher. Given the demand for pitching, the high prices teams are willing to pay and the fact that the Twins are not a particularly desirable landing place for a free agent, they may not have any good options.
I did an analysis of the Twins pitching earlier. But here is what Twins rotation looks like this:
Scott Diamond
Vance Worley
Kevin Correia
Failing to add another starter means filling out the rotation with two of the following:
Roster:
Cole De Vries
Liam Hendriks
Kyle Gibson
Trevor May
Pedro Hernandez
Bullpen Conversions:
Brian Duensing
Anthony Swarzak
Non-roster:
Sam Deduno
Emiliano Vazquez
PJ Walters
Nick Blackburn
That long list includes only three pitchers who have not had past opportunities and failed, Gibson, May and Hernandez. I think Gibson is the only one of those three with any realistic chance to be in the rotation out of spring training and he is a long shot.
You can make the argument that De Vries and Deduno did not really "fail" their opportunities so much as looking like not very inspiring solutions. As a 5th starter, one of them might be acceptable. As the only two candidates for the 4th and 5th starter slots they really aren't.
Of course you can project one of those other guys stepping up to take a spot. But it isn't really realistic to rely on pitchers who have had a hard time getting five innings per start in their brief major league careers. What's more realistic is that, in desperation, they rush a prospect (Gibson) or step into the bullpen to pull out Duensing or Swarzak for another shot as a starter. Thus weakening the bullpen and/or sacrificing the future, while giving the rotation just another weak spot.
If you want to understand the signing of Correia understand just how thin the options are at the end of the list even after he was signed. The Twins really need one more starter so that Deduno and De Vries are fall back options for the 5th spot instead guys who are penciled into the rotation unless someone unseats them in spring training. Correia may not be the answer, but he is certainly a better option as the third or fourth starter than Deduno and De Vries.
They probably paid too much for him. But I suspect that goes with the Twins territory these days. Money is about all they have to offer. Moreover, Correia signed for about 1/15th the money Greinke got. He may have been a bargain in this market.
So far they have added two starters Vance Worley and Kevin Correia. I haven't heard that they are done and they still have a roster spot open. But whether they like it or not they may not be able to sign another pitcher. Given the demand for pitching, the high prices teams are willing to pay and the fact that the Twins are not a particularly desirable landing place for a free agent, they may not have any good options.
I did an analysis of the Twins pitching earlier. But here is what Twins rotation looks like this:
Scott Diamond
Vance Worley
Kevin Correia
Failing to add another starter means filling out the rotation with two of the following:
Roster:
Cole De Vries
Liam Hendriks
Kyle Gibson
Trevor May
Pedro Hernandez
Bullpen Conversions:
Brian Duensing
Anthony Swarzak
Non-roster:
Sam Deduno
Emiliano Vazquez
PJ Walters
Nick Blackburn
That long list includes only three pitchers who have not had past opportunities and failed, Gibson, May and Hernandez. I think Gibson is the only one of those three with any realistic chance to be in the rotation out of spring training and he is a long shot.
You can make the argument that De Vries and Deduno did not really "fail" their opportunities so much as looking like not very inspiring solutions. As a 5th starter, one of them might be acceptable. As the only two candidates for the 4th and 5th starter slots they really aren't.
Of course you can project one of those other guys stepping up to take a spot. But it isn't really realistic to rely on pitchers who have had a hard time getting five innings per start in their brief major league careers. What's more realistic is that, in desperation, they rush a prospect (Gibson) or step into the bullpen to pull out Duensing or Swarzak for another shot as a starter. Thus weakening the bullpen and/or sacrificing the future, while giving the rotation just another weak spot.
If you want to understand the signing of Correia understand just how thin the options are at the end of the list even after he was signed. The Twins really need one more starter so that Deduno and De Vries are fall back options for the 5th spot instead guys who are penciled into the rotation unless someone unseats them in spring training. Correia may not be the answer, but he is certainly a better option as the third or fourth starter than Deduno and De Vries.
They probably paid too much for him. But I suspect that goes with the Twins territory these days. Money is about all they have to offer. Moreover, Correia signed for about 1/15th the money Greinke got. He may have been a bargain in this market.
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