The Infield

The first question about the Twins infield is how many will there be - five or six? Five places appear set, Morneau, Hudson, Punto, Harris and Hardy. The question then is whether they will keep Tolbert or Casilla or neither. Complicating that decision is that Casilla is out of options, which means he can't be sent to the minor leagues without passing through waivers. It is highly unlikely that would happen. Tolber still has options, so he can be sent to the minor leagues. The other complication, is that they likely need for at least one of these guys to be able to spell Denard Span. The alternative is to have Michael Cuddyer playing center field.

One of the key questions in spring training is which JJ Hardy shows up, the emerging star of a couple years ago or the guy who was sent to the minors last season. If it looks at all likely that last year was not a fluke, the Twins are going to want a lot of flexibility in the infield.  Hardy suffered on offense and , reportedly, on defense as well last year. That means Thome may get more pinch hitting opportunities and a backup shortstop may be a bigger part of the Twins plans.

The second question is how third base is split between Punto and Harris. Punto is a better defender and more flexible than Harris. If Harris is on the bench, the Twins are probably going to want a second guy who can play second base and run a little. Punto can fill those roles.

The final question is Alexi Casilla. Its not really that he needs to emerge this spring, if the Twins expected that they wouldn't have dealt for Hudson. Its whether they are ready to give up on him and/or can't find anyone willing to give them something in return. Casilla can play second and shortstop - although he has no real experience at short in the major leagues. Third base or the outfield would be wholly new experiences. It will be interesting to see if he is taking balls at those positions in spring training. If not, I suspect they are showcasing him for a trade, rather than considering him for a roster spot. They do have Harris and Punto who can play at those positions, so Casilla will likely not be a first choice in any case.

Tolbert can play second, third and short. He has played the outfield, but would need to do a lot more to get ready to play center field. But he really is the quintessential utility guy in a way Casilla isn't.

Given the decision to let Pridie go, I think the Twins are preparing to start the year with six guys in the infield. Unless they can make a trade, I think Casilla is the most likely choice with Tolbert at AAA. But there are still a lot of questions to be answered.

Second Catcher

The Twins spring training is not likely to be very eventful. There are only a handful of roster spots really in play. The first is the second catcher. There are some people who see this as a backup position, but its not. Mauer will likely start about three quarters of the games if he remains healthy. The second catcher will be in the lineup for the remaining quarter. That is about as much as a starting pitcher. Of course the catcher has less impact on the game than the pitcher, but it is still a lot more impact than a backup at other positions will have unless there is an injury.

Defense is the first priority in choosing a catcher. That is because it is the most important defensive position on the field after the pitcher. Like the pitcher, the catcher is involved with every pitch. The mental aspects, the ability to call a game and work with pitchers, are probably the most important parts of this job and almost impossible for fans to really evaluate. Along with that are the physical challenges like blocking pitches and throwing out base runners. And, perhaps most importantly, the catcher has to be durable, capable of performing with lots of minor aches and pains over an entire season. Obviously the latter is less an issue for a guy who only catches every fourth day. Of course the guys who aren't durable are going to get weeded out in the minor leagues and moved to another position. But it is important to remember durability is an issue when people talk about Wilson Ramos. He has not really shown he can do the job over an entire season.

The three realistic candidates for the second catcher job are Morales, Butera and, maybe, Ramos. Each brings something a little different to the job.

I think many people saw Morales as having the job at the end of last year. Mike Redmond was allowed to leave, in part, because the Twins had confidence Morales was ready to step in. Unfortunately, Morales had wrist surgery and may not be ready at the start of the season. The Twins seem to think he will be, Morales sounds skeptical. Morales has had a series of injuries over the last couple years that have set him back. But I am not sure that is really a sign of fragility, it may just be bad luck. Morales bat is pretty solid, although his career numbers are probably misleading. His defense is more in question, but it appears the Twins think it is at least adequate to the task now that he is fully recovered from his ankle injury from a couple years ago.

Even before Morales was hurt, Butera was his main competition for the second catcher position. Butera is a "catch and throw" guy who is valued for his defense. His bat is highly questionable and the only real question is whether it is so bad as to prevent him from playing in the major leagues. If he can hit .225-.250, his defense will probably allow him to make a career for himself as a second catcher. Certainly for a team like the Twins that tend to always rely on young pitchers to play key roles, a quality defensive catcher is going to be valued.  Ideally you would want Butera's defense with Morales bat, which brings us to Wilson Ramos.

There is no question Ramos has a combination of offensive and defensive that are the makings of a major league starting catcher. In any other organization, teams would be looking ahead to the day when he was ready to play in the big leagues. For obvious reasons, the Twins aren't. The problem is not Ramos tools, but whether he is really ready for the big leagues and whether his development would be strunted by spending 3/4 of the year on a major league  bench instead of catching every day in the minors. Ramos has barely over 300 at bats above A-ball. Given the Twins have two other catchers with major league skills, I think it is unlikely they are going to rush Ramos to the big leagues. In fact, its likely he will start the year back at AA if Morales is ready to catch at the start of the season. 

There are several other catchers, not on the roster, who are in camp. That is mostly because they need catchers to work with all the pitchers during spring training. Danny Lehman is the only one of these guys who may have a shot at the big leagues this year. He is probably next in line if Morales and Butera were both hurt and Ramos is deemed not yet ready. But I suspect the Twins would be looking to make a trade if that situation lasted very long. Lehman is really an organization player who would have to be in the right place at the right time to get a major league job even for a short period.

Which  brings us to a final comment. Because of his limited bat, there are people who think Butera has little value. Some even suggested the Twins release him to make room for Orlando Hudson or Jim Thome. The reality is that major league quality defensive catchers are hard to find. In 2004, when Joe Mauer got hurt, it was Henry Blanco a catch and throw guy that was behind the plate as they went to the playoffs. He hit only .206 and the Twins were very happy to have him. He disappointed them when he signed elsewhere after the season. Catching is a defensive position.

Who goes to provide roster space for Hudson?

The signing of Orlando Hudson means the Twins need to open another roster spot. When Jim Thome signed, Steven Tolleson was taken off the roster and claimed on waivers by Oakland. Now it looks like the Twins will likely lose another player. The ideal way to avoid that is with a trade.  The Twins have some surplus in a couple places, the major league infield and pitching. Of course, almost anyone could be traded if there is a team that is looking to make a deal but here are the likely trade candidates:

Glen Perkins - The Twins seem to have soured on Perkins and the only thing that has held up a trade is the unwillingness of other teams to give full value. If they could move Perkins for real value, I think he would be tops on their list. But that hasn't happened yet and it seems unlikely to happen in a couple days unless they already had a deal in the works.

Alexi Casilla - Casilla is out of options and the Twins infield is full of players. He won't get through waivers, so he can't just be taken off the roster without losing him. I don't think the Twins have given up on him yet, but if they could get something in return they would probably do a deal for him.

Matt Tolbert - Tolbert is not out of options, which means he can be used to provide depth at Rochester, much as he was last year. He is also the sort of player someone who needs a utility infielder might deal a prospect for. I think it is unlikely, but not out of the question.

Jesse Crain - The Twins have some depth in their bullpen and Crain has not been consistent. I think it is a real longshot that they would deal him, but again not impossible. In truth, you could add most of the bullpen to the list with that caveat, not impossible.  But I don't think its likely the Twins are going to reduce their pitching depth unless, like Perkins, they are really disenchanted with a player.

If they can't make a deal, the Twins will have to take someone off their roster. I think this is the most likely outcome and the candidates are almost all minor league players. Here is how I see them in order of likelihood with Hughes very much the most likely candidate if they have to go this route:

Luke Hughes - Hughes is a guy without a position. He isn't really an infielder and his bat doesn't play at a corner outfield spot. He has played several positions in the minors, but has really never developed at any of them. He does have some power and giving that up is difficult. Its that power that would make him a target on the waiver wire.

Trevor Plouffe - I think Plouffe has a future, but its not clear the Twins do and their opinion is the one that counts. I wonder if he has some makeup problems, because he seemed to make a lot of progress at the end of last year. And then the Twins went out and committed to JD Hardy. It seems doubtful they would let a former number one prospect go, but they have limited options.

Jason Pridie - Pridie is the Twins fourth outfielder and really the only guy who can play center if Denard Span is out for an extended period. That said, the Twins have made noises about going with three outfielders and Jason Kubel as the backup. They would use Cuddyer, Punto and/or Tolbert as emergency backups. But if Pridie is taken on waivers, its not clear there is anyone in the minors ready to step into the center field role if Span went down for an extended period. The idea of Cuddyer out in center field every day is scary.

There are some other highly unlikely candidates:

Joe Mauer - if they can't sign him, they might just release him to avoid the distraction. They would still have Drew Butera, who is a good defensive catcher, healthy and ready to step in.

Justin Morneau - Thome can play first

Orlando Hudson - This would be an oops we goofed moment.

Brendan Harris - Another oops we goofed moment.

Nick Punto - Smith may be really tired of Gardy and releasing Punto might get him to quit.

JD Hardy - Another oops, we goofed moment.

Michael Cuddyer - Unlikely, they need someone who can play center field.

Denard Span - This would open a spot so Michael Cuddyer can play center, or maybe Delmon Young.

Delmon Young - Smith may really want the whole Garza trade to just go away and get rid of this reminder that he ever made it.

Jason Kubel - Thome can DH

Crede

According to this article in the STRIB the Twins have some doubts about Crede. A lot of people, including me, have expected the Twins to look at Crede as an alternative to Harris at third base. But, on consideration, the addition Jim Thome makes that a lot less likely. The Twins are rightly concerned about Crede's inability last year to stay in the lineup. These were aches and pains of age and minor injuries, in addition to the time he spent on the disabled list. With only one backup infielder, if Crede is unavailable you can't use Thome to pinch hit for any of the infielders including the backup. Unlike last year,  the Twins don't have the flexibility to adjust to a part time player if Crede again is plagued by minor injuries. Given that, its not surprising they are backing away from him as an option.

The story also reports Liriano feels ready to go. It makes the point, however, that past velocity reports out of the Dominican about Liriano have been exaggerated. Obviously if Liriano is back to his form of few years ago the Twins are much better team both during the season and for the playoffs. The excitement, and optimism, of spring training's approach is starting to grow.

Twins Treatment of Perkins Showed Lack of Class

Perkins finally told his side of the story about his demotion this fall in an interview with Joe Christiansen at the STRIB. There is nothing really new there, but it caused me to put together all we know and it does not make the Twins management look good.

Perkins was put on the DL after complaining about arm problems. He went down to Fort Myers for rehab and then pitched in a couple minor league games there. From all appearances he was trying to get himself ready to help the Twins in the stretch run. (Whether he would have actually helped can be debated - the Twins didn't thinks so.) The Twins doctors told him his arm was healthy and Perkins prepared to go to Rochester for a tuneup. Suddenly Perkins discovered that instead of getting him healthy to help his team, the Twins were trying to get him healthy so they could take him off the DL and then off the major league active roster. By doing that they avoided paying him a major league salary in September and they prevented him from qualifying for arbitration.

Not surprisingly, Perkins was upset and he didn't trust the judgments he had been given by the Twins medical staff.  Was his arm really healthy, or just healthy enough to get him off the DL long enough to send him to Rochester? So Perkins demanded and got another medical opinion. The Twins management portrayed this as more problems with Perkins. As they did his filing a grievance over the affair.

Bill Smith says every thing they did was within the rules. And I believe him. But one reason I am a Twins fan is that it is not only a good baseball organization, but has been a classy baseball organization that treated people fairly. I am not sure that is true any more. They didn't show much class here.

What does Twins Arbitration Spending Say

Many Twins fans have been frustrated over the years by the team's unwillingness to invest in high-priced free agents. Since the mid-90's, when they gave multi-year contracts to favorite sons like Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor and Terry Steinbach, the Twins have not signed a free agent to a large multi-year contract (Mike Lamb doesn't count).

Many people have anticipated that the opening of the new stadium and increased revenue would finally make it possible for the Twins to add a premiere free agent. I think the recent decisions on arbitration, along with the investment in international signing bonuses, indicates that is not going to happen. Instead of going into the free agent market, it appears the Twins are going to use the extra revenue to extend the stay of their own veterans. In the past, several of the veterans, like Crain and Harris, would have been allowed to quietly leave. Now the Twins are willing to invest in keeping them around a couple more years. That may not be as dramatic as signing a celebrity player, but it will make the Twins a much better team in the long run. Especially with their increased commitment to prospect signing bonuses.

Joe Mauer is going to get a huge long term contract. That approach, keeping its good young players around longer, rather pulling in people from outside, looks like the direction the team is headed. No one else is going to get a Mauer-like contract, but the Twins are likely to give longer commitments to players who have proved themselves. That might not have meant signing Santana or Hunter when their contracts expired, but it might have meant adding a year of two to those contracts or extending their contracts for a couple years before they expired.

In the long run, the Twins are going to remain a team that puts together its core of players internally and by dealing for young players who have not fulfilled their potential. The free agent market is going to continue to be used to plug in players around that core, not add stars to it. That will disappoint some people, but we will get the benefits that come from focusing on building the team for the long run rather than making a big, immediate splash.

Why Joe Mauer is not a Number Two Hitter

As it has become more apparent that the Twins are unlikely to add a number two hitter from the free agent pool, there has been some speculation that Joe Mauer would be moved into that role. Its hard for me to believe that Gardy would seriously consider that, but his alternatives right now are Hardy, Punto and Harris. Hardy has been a number two hitter most of his career, but he didn't really have the bat (or OBP) for it last year. My guess is he is the default, but it will depend on spring training performance once the coaching staff has had a good look at him. Both Punto and Harris have been tried in the number two spot. In some ways, Punto's OBP, speed and ability to work pitchers makes him the ideal number two guy. But it seems he is not comfortable in that role. Harris likewise has not really shown much there and lacks any of the normal skills you look for.

The result is that some in the blogsphere are speculating about moving Mauer up to number two. The common way that works seems to be that everyone else moves up a spot behind him so Morneau is the number three hitter and Kubel or Cuddyer are in the cleanup and number five spots. For purposes of this article, I am going to assume that is the way the rest of the order will go. Obviously there are other alternatives.

The primary argument for this idea is that Mauer will get more at bats and would get on base more often than anyone else. Part of this is the mistaken impression people have that how often a player gets on base is the most important factor in determining how often a player scores. But the actual data shows a wide variation in how often players score once they are on base. There are two factors in that. One is that some runners will advance themselves further than others, either by hitting for power or by better base running. The second factor, not surprisingly, is who is hitting behind them.

The argument against Mauer results from that second factor. Mauer's combination of average and power make him one of the Twins key players in bringing other runners around the bases. The number two and three hitters will have 162 plate appearances in the first inning, about one quarter of their total. If the guy batting second has an average OBP of .340, in the first inning Mauer will have 55 more runners on base when hitting third - 48+ runners with an OBP over .300. And the problem doesn't end with Mauer. Morneau batting third is also going to have fewer runners on base when he comes to bat than he would in the number 4 spot. The player in the cleanup role, whether Cuddyer or Kubel, may see more base runners since the cleanup hitter gets to hit in the first inning whenever even one of the first three guys gets on base. In the fifth spot and lower they will miss some of those opportunities.

The Twins number two hitters had 16 more plate appearances than the number three hitter over the course of last season, so Mauer would get on base about 6 more times in the number two spot compared to 5 times by an average number two hitter. You see similar result for Morneau, but the bulk of the plate appearances the alternative number two hitter would have had in that spot end up going to the 5th and 6th hitters - i.e. Delmon Young - assuming the alternative hitter does not appear in the order until after them.

So moving Mauer and Morneau to the number two and three spots shifts a lot of the RBI opportunities from Mauer and Morneau to Cuddyer, Kubel and Young. And, overall, you get only a handful of extra base runners. That tradeoff does not seem likely to improve the Twins run production.