Top 10 Prospects of 2002 Reviewed

Here is Baseball America's Top Ten after the 2001 season:

2002
1) Joe Mauer
2) Justin Morneau
3) Michael Cuddyer
4) Michael Restovich
5) Adam Johnson
6) Brad Thomas
7) Juan Rincon
8) Rob Bowen
9) Matt Kinney
10)Sandy Tejada

Here is an alternative top ten based on players' performance at the major league level:

1) Joe Mauer
2) Justin Morneau
3) Michael Cuddyer
4) Jason Kubel
5) Juan Rincon
6) Grant Balfour
7) Matt Kinney
8) Bobby Kielty
9) Lew Ford
10) Dustin Mohr

Others considered: Jose Morales, Rob Bowen, Brad Thomas, Mike Ryan , Terry Tiffee

Misses: Bowen, Thomas, Johnson, Restovich, Tejada
Missed: Kubel, Ford, Mohr, Kielty , Balfour

A short summary of this is that Baseball America got the top 3, plus Rincon and Kinney. Kinney really had only one good year and that was with Milwaukie. That said, their only real "missed" players were Kubel and Balfour. Kielty, Mohr and Ford are on the list only because the Twins minor leagues were pretty barren. That isn't really surprising given the young players they had at the major league level. Even the "old" guys, like Lawton, Radke, Koskie and Mientkiewicz, were still under 3o.

Here is a list of most of the young players who eventually appeared in the big leagues who played in the Twins system that year and still had their rookie eligibility. Players over 26 were left off:

Edmonton
John Barnes
Bobby Kielty
Mike Ryan
Todd Sears
Grant Balfour
Adam Johnson
Matt Kinney


New Britain
Michael Cuddyer
Lew Ford
Dustin Mohr
Justin Morneau
Michael Restovich
Grant Balfour
Lew Frederick
Juan Rincon
Saul Rivera
Brad Thomas

Fort Myers
Luis Rodriguez
Juan Padilla
Benj Sampson


Quad Cities
Rob Bowen
Luiz Maza
Josh Rabe
Terry Tiffee
Willy Eyre
Brian Wolf


Elizabethton
Joe Mauer
Trent Oeltjen
Travis Bowyer
Kevin Cameron
JD Durbin

Gulf Coast
Jason Kubel
Jose Morales
Saul Rivera

Are Twins Rebuilding?

The answer to this question is always yes, during every off-season. One of the folks over at the STRIB points out that six of the players who were in the starting lineup for the playoffs in 2010 are gone two years later. But that 2010 playoff lineup had only 5 players from the 2009 lineup. In other words 4 players were gone the next season, not two years later. And Justin Morneau wasn't in either of those playoff lineups.

One reason the Twins have avoided, until last year, big losing seasons is that they do rebuild each off-season, replacing aging players who were likely to get worse with younger ones who are likely to get better. Letting guys like Guerrier, Rauch and Hardy go after last season made sense as part of that strategy.

What is disturbing about this off-season is that is not really what is happening. Instead the Twins are signing aging players to fill gaps. That was the pattern of the late 1990's, a period of futility. When you see the Twins signing old guys like Willingham and Carroll and letting young players like Slowey, Mijares and even Kubel leave, you wonder if those moves really make sense for the future of the team.

Beyond Verlander, what can we expect from the draft

Here are the Twins 2012 draft choices, at least as currently projected (thanks to
North Dakota Fan for this information.):

"Minnesota Twins 2012 MLB Draft Order
First Round: 2nd pick
Supplemental Round: 1st pick (32nd overall), 11th pick (42nd overall)
Second Round: 3rd pick (64th overall), 12th pick (73rd overall) "


I thought it would be interesting to look back and see what players got taken in those spots. The last time the Twins picked near the second spot in the draft was in 2001, the Joe Mauer draft. Mauer, of course was the first pick although a number of people at the time critcized the Twins as cheap for taking him instead of the guy taken in the number two spot. Here are the players who were taken in each of the positions listed above:

2001 Draft:
Mark Prior
*Michael Woods
*Jon Skaggs
Justin Gillman
*Cole Barthel

As it turned out, Prior was the only one of these choices that played in the major leagues. So I looked at the next couple years:

2002 Draft:
B.J. Upton
*Luke Hagerty
*Blair Johnson
Brian McCann
*Taber Lee

2003 Draft:
Rickie Weeks
*Matt Murton
*Shane Costa
Estee Harris
*Jake Fox

Besides the guys taken in the number two spot, Brian McCann is the only player here that would be called a success. Murton and Costa, supplementary choices taken in 2003, also had brief stints in the big leagues.

Finally I looked at 2004 and 2005, the last two times the Twins had this many extra choices:

2004 Draft:
Justin Verlander
*Zach Jackson
*Brett Smith
Hunter Pence
*Jeff Frazier

2005 Draft:
Alex Gordon
Chaz Roe
Clay Buchholz
Kris Harvey
Kevin Slowey

This creates a lot more optimism about the prospects for those later draft choices. Once again the best players by far were the guys taken in that number two spot. But Hunter Pence is a solid major league player, Clay Buchholz is a solid major league starter and Slowey has some success as well.

To put this in perspective here are the draft position and player taken in 2004 and 2005 by the Twins:

(20) Plouffe
(22) Perkins
(25) Waldrop
(35) Fox
(39) Rainville
(61) Swarzak


(25) Garza
(29) Sanchez
(54) Kelly
(73) Slowey
(80) Thompson
(84) Duensing

I am not going to try to evaluate that list except to point out that we don't really know what we got from the 2004 draft even seven years later. I suppose Perkins established himself last year, but Waldrop, Plouffe and Swarzak are all still question marks. You might say the same thing of Duensing, at least to whether he is a starter or just a bullpen arm.

If you look at that list of number two picks, I think the Twins would be happy to have any of them on the roster, with the exception of Prior who was derailed by an injury. If you look at the rest of the choices, its a long shot that any of them will be contributors at the major league level.

You can get a perspective on relative worth by looking at signing bonuses in each slot. Every one of the first 8 picks in last year's draft got a bigger bonus than the combined bonuses paid to the three Twins first round picks. And the Twins paid Harrison and Boyd over slot. By that measure, Twins second choice may be more valuable than all the rest of their choices combined.

Trade Span and Liriano?

Pat Reusse suggests that the Twins may deal Denard Span and Francisco Liriano. Both of these moves have been talked about before and make some sense.

The Twins now have Ben Revere slated to play left field. But his best position is center field, where his defensive prowess makes his offense less critical. That makes Span expendable in some ways. Where Span isn't easily replaceable is in his role as leadoff hitter. The Twins do not really have anyone else with his combination of skills.

One of things that gives Span value is that the Twins have him under contract through 2015 (including an expensive option). That makes him a lot more valuable as trade bait. Closer to Chuck Knoblauch than Johan Santana. If the Twins can get a quality starter in return, they would probably be willing to let Span go. That possibility would make their continued pursuit of Cuddyer and Kubel after signing Willingham more understandable.

Liriano is a tougher sell. He is a free agent after next season, so the Twins interest in moving him is understandable. The real issue is whether they can get anything of value in return. I think this would have to mostly be a salary dump for whatever they can get. I doubt the Twins are going to go there.

What Next for Twins

With Michael Cuddyer gone and Josh Willingham signed, the Twins still have three potential areas to add players before spring training. They need outfield depth, a starting pitcher and multiple openings in the bullpen.

According to current news reports, they are now making a renewed effort to sign Jason Kubel. Willingham is currently slotted as the Twins right fielder, but he has very limited experience there. His range is not good to begin with and a less than stellar arm will be exposed in right field. That was probably at least part of the reason the Twins kept their offer to Cuddyer active after signing Willingham. Kubel could fit into that spot along with some DH duties.

Right now, Ben Revere is slated to be the Twins left fielder. But, while Revere likely has a bright future, he may or may not be ready to play every day. With Kubel in the outfield, Revere's playing time can match his performance with Kubel, Willingham and Doumit sharing the DH duties when Revere is in the outfield.

The most obvious need the Twins have is for another starting pitcher. With Slowey gone and Duensing slated for the bullpen, Pavano, Baker, Liriano and Blackburn are the only experienced starters. Swarzak is a potential 5th starter and there are some minor league players who will get a look. But that really isn't how you want to start spring training. The problem is that starting pitchers are not cheap. They may be able to grab someone who was non-tendered, but more likely a quality starter is going to require giving up some value in a trade.

They have a LOT of players signed who can fill out the bullpen. But the top three spots right now are Capps, Perkins and Duensing. They really need a right handed setup guy to pair with Perkins in the 8th inning. With Swarzak and Duensing working the 7th then the bullpen could be a team strength. But without another solid pitcher to get to Capps, the bullpen looks very weak. Its going to be a very long season if we see Capps warming up again in the 8th inning the way we did last spring.

Twins Roster Moves

The Twins moved three players off their roster, losing two of them in the process. This is in addition to trading a fourth player and adding a guy from the rule 5 draft. How does all this add up and where do the Twins go in the future?

Lets start with the players who are gone. Kevin Slowey and Jose Mijares were both candidates for non-tender. The Twins had decided they were not worth the money they would have to be paid as a result of arbitration. Slowey was traded for a minor league relief pitcher. They couldn't even get that much for Mijares and they finally just made him a free agent. You can call these salary dumps and that would be partially true. But the other reality, I think, is that nothing either one did in spring training was going to relieve the manager's doubts about them based on the last couple years. They needed to go somewhere else if they were going to have a chance to make a major league roster next season.

Jim Hoey came over in a similar deal last year for JJ Hardy. Hardy was a non-tender candidate and the Twins got a couple relievers from Baltimore for him. Hoey's value was he threw hard. His problem was that he didn't throw over the plate often enough. The Twins tried to send him through waivers and the Blue Jays, probably seduced by that fastball, decided he was worth the waiver cost and a roster spot.

The Twins had earlier this fall claimed Pedro Florimon on waivers. They put him back out on the waiver wire and every other team passed on him so they were able to assign him to Rochester. He will probably be invited to spring training. He looks like minor league middle infield depth, something the Twins lack.

Terry Doyle was claimed from the White Sox in the rule 5 draft. Doyle is 26 years old and looks like either a back of the rotation starter or a swing man in the bullpen. There are reports, rumors really, that his fastball was in the mid-90's in the AFL last fall. There are reasons to doubt that, since it has topped out around 90 for most of his career. But the fact that he was still throwing hard after a full minor league season is probably part of his appeal. A big, durable pitcher who can pitch deep into games or pitch out of the bullpens on consecutive days. Either way, he will keep the pressure off the bullpen by pitching a lot of innings. Unlike many rule 5 drafts, this is not a guy they are going to try to hide on the roster for the future. He needs to win a spot.

The result of all these machinations is that that Twins now have three spots open on their roster. One of those is set aside for Michael Cuddyer or someone else to play right field. I suspect the Twins are still looking for another starting pitcher. Terry Ryan said he was going to be looking carefully at players other teams non-tendered. What's a bit of a puzzle is why they needed that third roster spot. The most likely target would be another bullpen pitcher. With a new group of non-tendered free agents available, the rumor mill will be grinding out a lot of flour the next few days.

Matt Capps

Terry Ryan is back. The Twins signed Matt Capps to be their closer for $4.75 million this year. If he's successful, they can keep him for the 2013 season for another $5.75 million. That's a pretty good deal for a guy who is 27 and moving into the prime of his career. Assuming, of course, that he stays healthy and pitches like 2010, not 2011.

There are a bunch of folks who will be upset at the loss of a supplemental draft choice, but players taken that late in the draft don't usually amount to much. And, of course, there are the "closers are overpaid" folks who keep insisting that the closer role isn't really that important. For anyone who remembers Latroy Hawkins' late season meltdown in 2001 that likely cost the Twins the division, that is hard to agree with.

For the Twins the end of the 2013 season is also the end of Justin Morneau's contract. It seems pretty clear the Twins are moving forward with a strategy to compete for the next couple years, not to rebuild. And its also clear, Terry Ryan is still not going to be intimidated by the opinions of sports writers, bloggers and fans.