Nishioka

The "Phony Fan" over at the STRIB apparently is arguing the Twins should give up on Tsuyoshi Nishioka (I read the lead, but never waste time reading the rest of his stuff). Does this really make sense, given the amount of money to the Twins have invested in him?

Clearly if what we have seen of Nishioka is what we get, then he is at best a mediocre utility infielder. But its far more likely that he is a young player struggling in his first year in the big leagues. In addition to the typical struggles of any young player, he has had to adapt to a new culture and differences in the game he has played all his life. All while relying on a translator to communicate with coaches and teammates.

Far from giving up on him, it makes a lot more sense to see who shows up in Spring Training. The young, uncertain player who struggles with the games basics. Or the guy who excelled with a couple gold gloves and a batting championship in his native Japan. It appears to me that, at minimum, Nishioka has the defensive tools to play second and shortstop in the big leagues. That would make him a very expensive utility player. On the other hand, his bat and speed could turn him into asset on offense.

Far from giving up on Nishioka, I am curious what he will do next year. I am not ready to hand him a job, but he certainly should be "in the mix".

Arizona Fall League - Updated

Update

Seth Strohs reports that the Arizona Fall League Rosters will be announced today. The way the rosters are chosen is that each of the teams sharing a roster choose which positions they want to fill. So who the Twins send in part depends on which roster spots are available to them. In practice that probably means they can choose a roster position for their priority players, but some players may get a spot because that position was available. Usually the split is 3 pitchers and 3 position players.

The Twins seem to have used the AFL for a couple of purposes. One, of course, is to give experience to players against better competition. This means some of the Twins better prospects will be chosen. The other is to evaluate players who are on the border to be protected from the rule 5 draft by being added to the major league roster. Most of the players come from AA or AAA. I think they are only allowed to send one player who hasn't played above A ball. There are usually a few surprises with players chosen who had been below the radar. Which means this list of candidates will likely miss someone:

AAA

Kyle Gibson (very unlikely with his injury)

Carlos Gutierrez

AA

Joe Benson

Chris Parmelee

Brian Dozier

Chris Herrman

Tyler Robertson

Deinys Suarez

Dakota Watts

Bobby Lanigan

Brett Jacobson

David Bromberg

A

Aaron Hicks

Danny Rams

Alex Wimmers

Shooter Hunt

My guesses:

Carlos Gutierrez

Joe Benson

Brian Dozier

Bobby Lanigan

Brett Jaconson

Danny Rams

Like I said above, its likely there will be a surprise or two, at least a surprise to me.

Update:

Seven players were chosen. Here they are with comments.

Cole DeVries

At 26, I thought DeVries was a bit too old to be sent to the AFL. This is probably an indication that they are at least considering adding him to the roster to protect him from the rule 5 draft. DeVries is a reliever who split time between Rochester and New Britain the last two seasons. He cut down his walks considerably this year. He's a Minnesota native.

Scott Diamond

Diamond is an obvious choice. He will likely compete for a rotation spot next spring, although he is a long-shot in that competition.

Bruce Pugh

Pugh is another guy who will be eligible for the rule 5 draft if he isn't added to the roster. He is a reliever who can strike batters out.

Bret Jacobson

Jacobson came to the Twins in the Hardy trade. Another guy who will be rule 5 eligible. Obviously the Twins liked his arm, but his numbers at New Britain didn't make him a can't miss prospect.

Brian Dozier

Dozier's bat is his tool, he hit at both Fort Myers and New Britain this year. He has played shortstop in the minor leagues, but he is more likely to be at second in the major leagues. He's in the AFL to work on his defense. He may have outside shot at winning a roster spot next spring, but I doubt it.

Chris Herrman

Herrman is a C/OF. It will be interesting to see how that strange combination plays out in the AFL. His status is a lot like Dozier's, only he is further away from the big leagues.

Aaron Hicks

Hicks has not played above A ball, but he has been rated the Twins top prospect. In the AFL, he is going to get his first chance against a high level of competition. Like Dozier and Herrman, he isn't there really to prove anything but to learn and develop.

Pitching is usually pretty weak in the AFL since teams don't send their top prospects. You can see that reflected in the 4 pitchers the Twins sent. All four are guys who are there to prove something to the organization. By contrast, the three position players are really there to continue learning the game. Dozier is the only one whose status in the organization is going to be affected by how he performs. And then not very much.

What Went Wrong with Twins?

There is a lot of finger pointing in the Twins blogsphere about whose "fault" it is that the Twins have struggled this year. First, let me be clear that I thought this might be the best Twins team ever. That was probably unrealistic even if everything went right. But very little went right.

Here is a list of potential culprits as identified by various bloggers and sports talk shows:

• Twins management, specifically these moves:
  • JJ Hardy trade
  • Signing Nishioka
  • Not keeping Guerrier, Rauch and Crain or adding replacements
  • Trading Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps last year
  • Signing Pavano
• Twins conditioning and medical staff
• Twins scouting department
• The middle infield
• Lack of minor league depth
• Ron Gardenhire
• Joe Mauer

Of course all of these ignore the real culprits, under-performing players and injuries. Of course, under-performing depends on what level of performance was expected and you can blame Twins management for over-estimating their players. But its not clear that an accurate assessment of players before the season would have changed the outcome. Lets look at what happened.

During a recent game a tweet got passed around pointing out that Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer were in the Twins lineup together for the first time since early April. Of course those four players were part of the core the Twins were building their offense around - essentially they constituted the middle of the Twins order. Even the guy who was supposed to provide some depth, Jim Thome, missed part of the year on the DL.

What I found interesting was that the other two players who were expected to provide the core of the offense, Denard Span and Delmon Young, weren't in that lineup even then. Span is on the DL, while Young had been traded. The reality is that for most of the year, the Twins had a substantial number of guys in their lineup who were expected to spend the year at AAA. Hughes, Tosoni, Revere, Rivera and Plouffe got way too many plate appearances. And that doesn't count Repko and Tolbert, who were on the roster for their gloves, not their bats.

In short, its really impossible to know how good the Twins offense would have been had they not been decimated by injuries. No team is going to have that many major league quality players at AAA or on the bench who are ready to step into the middle of the lineup and produce. In fact, few would have even one the quality of Jim Thome.

But the production was not just down because replacements didn't produce. Delmon Young was hurt part of the time. But when he was in the lineup, his production was way down from last year. Morneau and Mauer were often hobbled by injuries when playing and didn't produce anything like the offense everyone expected. Nishioka was a huge disappointment, both as a number two hitter and in the field. Danny Valencia predictably regressed from his stellar season and Casilla struggled mightily for the first month of the season. Only Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel really produced as expected when healthy.

In short, the Twins offense was destroyed by injuries to all its key players and no one stepped up with a career year to help carry the team. The idea that Twins management could have prepared for that is, I think, ludicrous.

Of course, offense wasn't the Twins only problem. In fact, it probably wasn't the biggest problem. The defense, including pitching, was just as bad. And that was not caused chiefly by injuries. Baker and Liriano are now hurt. And Nathan, Slowey and Perkins all missed significant time on the DL. But that doesn't explain the overall poor results.

The main problem was with the starting rotation. The Twins went into spring training with six starters, giving Gardenhire the luxury of selecting the best five for the rotation. Slowey was the loser in that competition, struggled in the bullpen, unexpectedly I think, and ended up injured. He was then optioned to Rochester. That eliminated the depth, although the Twins got unexpected help from Anthony Swarzak as Slowey's replacement.

Unfortunately the winners of the competition mostly struggled. There will be a lot of opinions about which starters the Twins should have in the rotation next year, but you can make a case for and against everyone with the possible exception of Pavano. Again, its hard to say what the Twins management could have done to prevent this or even to see it coming. The signing of Pavano is a clear indication that they had some doubts about the other candidates for the rotation. But it wasn't realistic to replace three or four other starters with better candidates. I think they expected Kyle Gibson to be ready to help by the end of the season, but he came up sore-armed. Likewise Alex Wimmer, their 2010 first round draft choice, ended up on having control problems and spent most of the season on the DL at Fort Myers.

The failure of the rotation put pressure on an already thin bullpen. You kind of knew the Twins were in trouble when Matt Capps, their closer, was regularly warming up in the 8th inning. Predictably, those extra innings caught up with him and Joe Nathan regained his closer spot. The Twins expectations for Glen Perkins turned out to be right on the money as he stepped right into the role as setup guy. The only real disappointment in the bullpen was Mijares. The larger problem was that the veterans they grabbed to fill out the bullpen mostly struggled. They settled on Dumatrait as the best of the lot, but not before Hoey and Hughes had failed.

The minor leagues didn't produce any great replacements. Alex Burnett continues to entice with his stuff, but he again showed he isn't really ready to take on a central role. Manship and Slama were hurt. Gutierrez continued to struggle with his control Again Anthony Swarzak was the one bright spot and he was used more as a middle reliever than late inning guy.

There is an interesting chicken-egg question here. There was a time when Twins starters were limited to around 100 pitches. This year, I think in part because he lacked confidence in his bullpen options, Gardenhire was having starters throw a lot more pitches. But with the starters struggling, more pitches didn't necessarily mean getting deeper into games. The result was that the burden on the bullpen also increased. Particularly on the guys who had Gardy's confidence. Nathan is really the only pitcher who seemed to be protected from overuse.

To put some numbers on that, last year the Twins pitchers faced an average of 37.7 batters per game, a total of 6106. So far in 2011 they have faced 38.3 batters per game, on target for 6205. I don't know if that is a significant difference in terms of work load, but it amounts to pitching almost 3 extra games.

In any case, would having invested more money in keeping guys like Crain and Rauch around have helped? No doubt. Its hard to see how that would have been a better use of money than resigning Pavano if everything worked the same. But if a deeper bullpen had picked up innings from the starters who had then in turn performed better, reducing the burden on key members of the bullpen, they may well have had better results.

Could a better medical and training staff have prevented the injuries? I think that is highly doubtful. They certainly weren't going to prevent Span from getting a concussion or Mornea continuing to suffer from the results of his concussion last year. There is nothing with the other injuries to indicate that they could have been prevented. The Twins were just snake-bit this year. That said, Morneau, Span and Mauer's injuries all have the danger of being chronic problems. There is nothing the Twins medical staff can do about that.

The complaints about the Twins scouting department seem mostly related to trades. But the Garza-Young trade was hardly a scouting failure. Every scout in baseball thought, and many may still think, Young was a future star. Phil Humber's performance to start the season showed the Twins scouts didn't miss when he was included in the Santana deal. He just didn't develop quickly enough for the Twins to get the benefits of his talent. And Delios Guerra has thrived since moving to the bullpen at New Britain. The Hardy deal was clearly a budget decision, he was going to be non-tendered if they couldn't trade him. Hoey looks like he may never develop, but he has the kind of arm you take a gamble on. Nishioka looks like he is overmatched, but scouting the Japanese leagues has been notoriously tough.

In terms of the minor leagues, a lot of the past complaints about the Twins are once again being disproved. It looks like both Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe are going to be major league contributors, despite the negative reviews the Twins have received over the past couple years for drafting them.

While the middle infield has been a problem this year, you can attribute that mostly to injuries. When hs is in the lineup, Casilla is a solid major league player, despite his early season struggles. Nishioka was a problem. But the reality is the middle infield was not the even close to being the Twins biggest problem. They could have contended with the players they have.

Complaints about minor league depth are actually kind of strange. Revere, Hughes, Plouffe, Tosoni, Swarzak, Burnett and Rivera all contributed at the major league level. None of them are ROY candidates. None of them are middle of the order bats. None of them are the team's new ace pitcher. But no team has a stable of those kinds of players waiting to step into the major league lineup. And every team will suffer when half its lineup is still learning the major league game.

Can Ron Gardenhire be blamed for this year's debacle? I don't think so. But that said, I think his weaknesses are starting to show. Its not enough to talk the talk, you have to walk the walk. The reason the Twins had a reputation for defense and doing the "little things" right was that every player in the organization knew they couldn't play for Tom Kelly if they didn't learn those things. Minor league managers and coaches may still tell players that if they want to play for Ron Gardenhire, they are going to have to do the little things right. But the players will quickly catch on if that is just lip service. When a team makes mental mistakes, those are things a manager can and should fix. Complaining about them in the media is not the answer.

The other problem with Gardenhire is that he manages to much day to day. Players need days off before they recognize it, not afterwards. And tired players are much more likely to get injured. Gardenhire seems to ride players hard with guys like Cuddyer, Kubel, Morneau and Span in the lineup every day until they break down. The same thing happened with the pitching staff this year. The argument that pitchers should be able to go more than 100 pitchers is an interesting mind game on the internet. But the Twins have had a lot of success working with that limit. Pitchers perform better and they break down less. But that means sacrificing immediate results for long term health. That is not Gardy's style.

Joe Mauer. Yep. Its all his fault. He is overpaid. He is injury prone. He isn't a team leader ... I think there is something to all of those and the Twins success depends on Joe Mauer being healthy and productive. He is not only the face of the Twins, he is the central core of core players who can make the Twins a special team. The danger is that, like Kirby Puckett, health problems make him just a giant drag on the budget. If that happens, the Twins are going to have another decade of struggles like the 90's.

It seems like everything that could go wrong this year, did go wrong. Whether the Twins can turn that around in a single year is an open question. Aside from injuries, the Twins central problem this year was their pitching. Their success next year will depend on Twins management making the right decisions this winter to correct that. There are no clear answers as to who to keep, who should go or what additions will make a difference. But that's what they get paid for.

Twins 2012 Retool or Rebuild?

The 2011 season is all but over and the Twins are now faced with where to go for next year. The question is whether they have a core of players that they can build a contender from for next year with some retooling. If they can't, then the alternative is to rebuild for the future beyond next year.

For the Twins to be competitive next year, Mauer and Morneau need to stay relatively healthy and productive. There are plenty of reasons to think that won't happen, but there are plenty of reasons to think it will as well. I think any plan has to assume they will be healthy. If their careers are over, there is going to be a long wait until guys in A ball, like Sano and Hicks, are ready to replace them as the core of a championship team.

Assuming Mauer and Morneau are productive, is it possible to put together the other pieces to be competitive? At catcher, with Mauer as the everyday guy, Butera's defense makes him a solid backup as long as he is limited to 30-40 starts. They have Morneau at first base, but he probably needs to be rested regularly to stay healthy and productive.

The middle infield has two questions and a bunch of answers, most of them not good. Casilla is likely going to take one of the two infield positions. This year's partner, Nishioka, was clearly not ready for the big leagues. It will be interesting to see how he does after a winter off. But it looks like he is likely to be a very expensive utility player, at best.

The other options are Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes and Matt Tolbert. Plouffe has a plus bat at second or shortstop, but its not clear he isn't better suited at a corner outfield spot. Hughes glove might work at second, but again his strength is his bat. I think Tolbert's value is almost entirely his ability to play several positions. Its not clear there is a spot for him if they have Nishioka in the utility role. Dozier, the shortstop this year at AA, is a very longshot to help. The reports are that he is likely more a second baseman than a shortstop, but it appears his bat plays there.

Valencia is going to be back at third base. He is not the star some people thought he was last year. Instead he is a mediocre bat and glove at third base. That would have been fine if he had been batting 8th all year.

It looks like Revere and Span (if healthy) are set for two outfield spots. Cuddyer and Kubel are both free agents. Either one would take the last spot if they are signed during the off-season. Cuddyer seems the more likely signing. His right handed bat, ability to play several positions and clubhouse presence all give him an advantage over Kubel. Kubel is the better hitter.

Jason Repko is a pretty good fourth outfielder who can play all the outfield positions. But with Revere able to backup Span in center field, Repko's glove becomes less important. Tosoni does not look like he is ready yet, but its sometimes surprising what a winter will do for a young player. Plouffe may be the leading contender for right field if he isn't in the infield and none of the free agents return.

Joe Benson will always intrigue fans because of his tools, but his strikeouts at AA are an indication he is not ready to handle major league pitching. Chris Parmelee is another possibility. But he is more first baseman than right fielder. Both probably need AAA seasoning before being tried at the major league level. There really aren't any other outfielders in the system that look like they are going to be everyday major league players.

Thome will likely not be back, regardless of whether the Twins want him or not. Next year's Twins do not look like a sure-ticket to the playoffs.

The Twins have seven potential starting pitchers, Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing and Swarzak. They have a couple longshots at AAA in Diamond and Gibson, but neither is likely to start in the rotation next year. With the exception of Pavano and possibly Baker, the other five are all going to have to pitch well in spring training to win a spot.

Capps is a free agent next year. Nathan has a team option, that they might surprise everyone by picking up given his recent performance and their thin bullpen. Perkins and Mijares are likely to return. Its possible Mijares has worn out his welcome, but not likely. I think whether Dumatrait and James are in spring training will depend on whether the Twins need their roster spots to protect prospects from the Rule 5 draft. Burnett will likely be in the mix. along with Oliveros, Hoey and Gutierrez. As will Manship, Slama and the losers in the rotation competition.

As always, there are a bunch of longshots who will have a chance to shine in spring training. Delios Guerra has been outstanding in his relief role at AA. Diamond may get another shot. Deinys Suarez, their Cuban refugee, may be given a look as well.

So where does that leave us? Frankly, I think the Twins are at a halfway mark that justifies neither going "all in" nor folding. That means gambling they will get positive answers to questions other than Mauer and Morneau staying healthy.

The first gamble is the starting staff. Without more than one or two starters set, spending a lot of money and/or prospects on filling one more spot with an "ace" doesn't seem to make sense. Instead they need to gamble that guys like Liriano, Baker, Slowey and Blackburn will come through. That is the same gamble they lost this year. But adding one more starter is not going to change the odds that much.

The second gamble is the middle infield. Counting on Casilla for one spot is a gamble in itself. They probably need to add some options for that other spot, whether that means making a trade or signing a veteran free agent.

The third gamble is to bring back both Kubel and Cuddyer, at the right price. It would fill out the outfield and DH slots, provide some depth at first base and solidify the middle of the order. I have never been big fans of either one, but if they lose both those guys, its hard to imagine the team contending. Valencia and Plouffe are not the 5 and 6 hitters on a championship team. If they lose Kubel and Cuddyer, they will have to find replacements.

Count me as skeptical that an aggressive re-working of the team over the off-season will make them contenders. The improvement is going to have to come mostly from within. Staying healthy is an important part of that. But they will also need for some of their young players to step up.

Managing the Disabled List

Last night, the Twins had Joe Mauer playing right field because they were out of position players. This resulted in a bunch of outlandish twitter comments, including some from the usually reasonable SethSpeaks (SethTweets on Twitter). The substance of the commentary was that Twins management was incompetent or that the Twins medical staff was incompetent, or both. What actually happened was a perfect storm. But it raised interesting questions about the management of the disabled list.

The starting point for the disabled list is that once a player is put on it, they have to wait 15 days from their last appearance before they can be activated. So you don't put players on the list if you think they will recover in a short period. In fact, part of the Twins problems last night can be traced to the decision to put Jason Repko on the DL, with a minor injury rather than optioning him to Rochester. Repko is likely able to play, but he can't since he is on the DL.

The Twins have had three players out with what appeared to be temporary injuries. Denard Span with concussion systems, Michael Cuddyer with a stiff neck and  Matt Tolbert with a sprained wrist. In addition, Jason Kubel was gone last night dealing with family issues. That left the Twins with only nine position players. 

On Tuesday, Michael Cuddyer was ready to return to the lineup Wednesday. Then on Wednesday he couldn't play after his neck took a significant turn for the worse overnight. At that point, the Twins called up Luke Hughes for Thursday's game. The plan was to DL either Cuddyer or Span, depending on which seemed to be further away from playing. Unfortunately, Hughes missed his plane. The result was that Joe Mauer was in the outfield and the injured Matt Tolbert was the only player on the bench. Tolbert apparently can play defense, but not swing the bat.  

So what were the Twins alternatives? They could have put Cuddyer, Tolbert and Span on the DL earlier. Or at least, that seems to be the argument SethSpeaks was making. That the "Twins medical staff" was somehow responsible for the players not recovering or for not accurately predicting how soon  they would be ready. I don't think that is real. Cuddyer appeared ready, Span's headaches could disappear in a day and it appears even now they think Tolbert will be ready in days, not the two weeks he would have to stay on the DL.

Which brings us to the larger problem. The Twins currently have only two other position players on the major league roster, Rene Rivera and Joe Benson. Opening a roster spot for any other position player would require releasing one of the pitchers at Rochester. So sitting a bunch of players for a couple weeks with minor injuries because you are uncertain how quickly the will recover could leave the roster in chaos for weeks, rather than just one game.  

Of course some of this is Joe Benson. He hit a couple home runs a couple days agao and now the bloggers all think he is ready to play in the big leagues. The fact that those two home runs are half his hits in the last couple weeks. Benson's average for August is below the Mendoza line, but before those home runs he had two hits in the previous ten games and was hitting under .100. He has also been striking out in one of every three plate appearances. Giving him his first taste of the big leagues at a point where he has been struggling mightily to hit AA pitching is just a bad idea. Even worse, under the circumstances he would not be able to sit on the bench and watch, no matter how over-matched he is. It appears they are already doing that with Rene Tosoni, who clearly had no business being in the lineup against a CC Sabathia. 

I understand that Twitter is really just quick takes on a situation. And the idea of Mauer out in right field is both frustrating and a little embarrassing. But last night was a perfect storm. You can blame Hughes for missing his plane, but the idea that the situation can be used to blame the Twins as an organization is pretty silly. You can't DL players every time they have  a sore wrist, a sore neck or a headache.

September Call-ups

Major league rosters expand at the end of the month. That allows teams to add any player on the 40 player roster to the active roster. Players called up in September are not eligible to play in the playoffs, although machinations around injuries sometimes allow teams to get around this. It appears very unlikely that will be an issue for the Twins this year in any case.

The starting point for callups is players already on the roster, since players called up have to be on the 40 player roster. While players can be added to the roster, recent draftees are rarely are until they need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. This is why, even before his injury, it was unlikely Kyle Gibson was going to be a September callup. I think the same is true of Liam Hendriks. One player who is not on the roster now, who I think is very likely to get a callup, is Carlos Gutierrez. He has to be protected from the Rule 5 draft and he is a reliever which means there will be plenty of opportunities for him to play.

There are four categories of players who often get called up by the Twins. One is minor league veterans of the Twins system who are getting rewarded for their performance in the minors. I don't think there is anyone who really fits that profile this year. The second category is players who have been in the major leagues, but got caught in the numbers game and sent to the minors. I think we can expect to see Luke Hughes, Rene Rivera* and Jason Repko back in the big leagues. Although Repko's spot may depend on having outfield at bats available and Denard Span's health. The third category is players who provide depth, but that is more likely when the team is in contention. When the team is out of contention, those spots are more likely to get filled by the last category, young players the Twins want their manager and coaches to see in major league competition. This year, that list is probably pretty short, since most of the young prospects who are ready for that test got the opportunity during the regular season.

For everyday players, Chris Parmelee is a possible callup if they think they can provide at bats at first base. This probably becomes more likely if Thome is sent to a contender since that would allow Morneau and Mauer to DH more often. Its also possible they will want to see Joe Benson try to hit major league pitching. But the outfield already looks pretty crowded. Brian Dinkelman seems like a long shot for the same reason.

On the pitching side there is a long list of possible callups. In addition to Guttierez, I think Scott Diamond is a very likely callup. I would also not be surprised to see Deolis Guerra called up. He has been pitching out of the bullpen and is out of options after this year. I think they will want to see the guy they got for Delmon Young, Lester Oliveros. And they may also want to see more of Jim Hoey. Chuck James is another guy they may call up. They need to decide whether he is worth a roster spot this winter.

The players I really want to see are Guttierez, Guerra and Parmelee. They are the three players with upside who may contribute to the Twins over the next five to ten years.

*correction: Rene Rivera, not "Ben Revere" as originally posted.