Here are the top ten Twins prospects following the 2012 season. Players taken in this year's amateur draft are NOT included in this list. They simply haven't played a full professional season and until they do we are relying on a very small sample size against suspect competition, both as amateurs and as pros. Guys like taken this season like Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios will likely be on this list next year.
This list is in no particular order - although it isn't really random either. I just don't have enough information to make fine distinctions. The better guys are toward the top and the lesser prospects toward the bottom. In other words, Hicks is a better prospect than Gutierrez, but there isn't much to choose between Hicks and Sano.
Aaron Hicks
Hicks is finally showing why he has been a highly touted prospect since he was drafted in 2008. He is one of a crew of athletic outfielders the Twins have drafted that includes this year's first choice Buxton and Twins outfielder Ben Revere.
Miguel Sano
Sano's power makes him special, but he is still raw and strikes out a lot. He also lacks a clear defensive position. If he can learn to play third base well he will be in the big leagues in a hurry. But even if he ends up at first base, his bat will play anywhere.
Kyle Gibson
Gibson is coming of Tommy John surgery. The reports are that he is throwing harder than he was before he went down last year. He is projected as a number two starter and could be in the rotation next spring. He will pitch this fall in the Arizona League.
Oswaldo Arcia
Arcia showed the bat at AA that makes him an exciting prospect. He was New Britain's best hitter, ahead of Aaron Hicks, and its youngest player. He lacks Hicks speed but he has the arm to play right field, but he got most of his at bats as a DH at New Britain.
Travis Harrison
Harrison was the 50th player taken in the 2011 draft. Playing in the Appalachian league he showed good average with decent power for a 19 year old. He will likely need to stay at third base to have a real impact at the big league level. His bat may play at first, but not the way it does at third.
Eddie Rosario
Rosario got moved from the outfield to second base this season. Like Harrison, his major league future depends on being able to stick as an infielder. As an outfielder his bat may not be enough for a corner spot and his defense may not hold up in center, although he played there some this year.
Max Kepler
Kepler showed even more power than Harrison at Elizabethton and is the same age. He has the range and arm to play center field.
Jorge Palanco
Palanco was signed at the same time as Sano, but projected as a slick fielding shortstop rather than a big bat. This was a break out year with the bat for him at Elizabethton. A year younger than his teammates Harrison and Kepler he hit just as well and his defense projects as a plus at either shortstop or second base.
Hudson Boyd
Boyd was the 55th player taken in the draft last year. He pitched well at Elizabethton in his professional debut. He is still a long way from the big leagues, but projects as a number 2 starter.
Carlos Gutierrez
Gutierrez has an outstanding sinker but lacks other pitches and has yet to reach his potential. He projects as a late inning reliever or closer. He was on the minor league DL for most of the year after struggling at the start of the season. If he can stay healthy and harness his fastball he could be a future closer. But this time is running out.
Others considered: Madison Boer, Niko Goodrum, Lester Oliveros, Joe Benson, BJ Hermsen, Chris Hermann, Alex Wimmers
Looking at those ten prospects it is striking how many of them are in the lower half of the system. Gutierrez and Gibson are the only ones who have even reached AAA. Hicks and Arcia are at AA. And four guys were in rookie ball at Elizabethton this year and two in low A ball.
Of course part of that is the Twins have pulled up a lot of the talent in the top levels of the system the last couple years. Guys like Plouffe, Revere, Parmelee and Diamond are no longer prospects. You can add Hendricks and Dozier to that list. The best talent at the top of the system is past the prospect stage to trying to prove themselves at the major league level.
Monday, September 10, 2012
Tuesday, June 05, 2012
Evaluating the Twins Draft
The Twins had five picks in the first 100 places this year. As I pointed out earlier, after the first 100 picks the draft really is a crapshoot. There will be players who make the big leagues but they will be few and far between. In the 130th spot in the draft, three players have made it to the big leagues from the last 20 years. Two of those had three at bats between them. Only Eric Byrnes contributed anything at the big league level.
After taking Byron Buxton in the first round, the Twins seem to have focused on hard throwing pitchers who will move through the system quickly. Even the high school kid, Jose Berrios, taken with the 32nd pick looks like he is pretty polished for a high school pitcher. The three college kids taken with the next three picks, Luke Bard, Mason Melotakis, and JT Chargois, all project as relief pitchers with some closer potential on the upside. Chargois, who mostly played first base in college as well as closing, may not develop as quickly as the others.
Its likely the Twins will give some of these guys a chance to develop the pitches to be starters the same way they did Carlos Gutierrez, a first round pick fin 2008. Guttierez is now a reliever at AAA who has had some injury issues this year, but still projects as a solid bullpen contributor with a great sinking fastball. I would expect the pitchers taken in this draft to end up in that same spot.
The last kid the Twins took with their top 100 picks was Adam Walker, a high school hitter with tremendous power. He lacks a defensive position. He has the speed to play a corner outfield spot, but a below average arm. And there are doubts that he will make enough contact to make use of all that power. He is the kind of high risk - high reward player that makes sense this late in the draft.
In fact, you could say the same of all these guys except Buxton. This was projected as a weak draft and it appears the Twins have gone after players with plus major league skills, rather than load up on guys with at best average major league potential.
The rest of the draft isn't meaningless, but any evaluation of it is. The simple truth is no one taken beyond the first 100 picks is at all likely to provide much benefit at the major league level. They all have that potential, or they wouldn't be drafted, but picking out the ones that will defy that rule is a fools game.
After taking Byron Buxton in the first round, the Twins seem to have focused on hard throwing pitchers who will move through the system quickly. Even the high school kid, Jose Berrios, taken with the 32nd pick looks like he is pretty polished for a high school pitcher. The three college kids taken with the next three picks, Luke Bard, Mason Melotakis, and JT Chargois, all project as relief pitchers with some closer potential on the upside. Chargois, who mostly played first base in college as well as closing, may not develop as quickly as the others.
Its likely the Twins will give some of these guys a chance to develop the pitches to be starters the same way they did Carlos Gutierrez, a first round pick fin 2008. Guttierez is now a reliever at AAA who has had some injury issues this year, but still projects as a solid bullpen contributor with a great sinking fastball. I would expect the pitchers taken in this draft to end up in that same spot.
The last kid the Twins took with their top 100 picks was Adam Walker, a high school hitter with tremendous power. He lacks a defensive position. He has the speed to play a corner outfield spot, but a below average arm. And there are doubts that he will make enough contact to make use of all that power. He is the kind of high risk - high reward player that makes sense this late in the draft.
In fact, you could say the same of all these guys except Buxton. This was projected as a weak draft and it appears the Twins have gone after players with plus major league skills, rather than load up on guys with at best average major league potential.
The rest of the draft isn't meaningless, but any evaluation of it is. The simple truth is no one taken beyond the first 100 picks is at all likely to provide much benefit at the major league level. They all have that potential, or they wouldn't be drafted, but picking out the ones that will defy that rule is a fools game.
Monday, June 04, 2012
Those Twins Draft Picks
We will be hearing a lot of angst about the Twins' first choice of Byron Buxton, a high school outfielder, in the Twins blogsphere for the next four or five years. There will no doubt be one or more college pitchers who will be contributing at the major league level while Buxton develops. It could well be 2020 before Buxton establishes himself as a major leaguer.
The Twins later choices are the kinds of players you expect at that point. Both look to have the stuff to be solid bullpen arms with some potential to develop into starters. Luke Bard, the college pitcher, is a fastball/slider guy who could move through the system like Jesse Crain. Orlando Berrios is a high school pitcher reported to have a good fastball and solid curve. He is a small right hander, which generally models as a bullpen pitcher, but he apparently has a changeup that could develop into a third pitch as a starter.
The difference between these last two picks and the next few picks tomorrow are pretty marginal. Most of them will not contribute much, if anything, at the major league level. But with several picks, the Twins will hope to get lucky on at least one them. After Buxton, its really a numbers game. You take a lot of guys and hope you find a Morneau, Radke or Blackburn in the mix.
The Twins later choices are the kinds of players you expect at that point. Both look to have the stuff to be solid bullpen arms with some potential to develop into starters. Luke Bard, the college pitcher, is a fastball/slider guy who could move through the system like Jesse Crain. Orlando Berrios is a high school pitcher reported to have a good fastball and solid curve. He is a small right hander, which generally models as a bullpen pitcher, but he apparently has a changeup that could develop into a third pitch as a starter.
The difference between these last two picks and the next few picks tomorrow are pretty marginal. Most of them will not contribute much, if anything, at the major league level. But with several picks, the Twins will hope to get lucky on at least one them. After Buxton, its really a numbers game. You take a lot of guys and hope you find a Morneau, Radke or Blackburn in the mix.
Draft Day! Justin Verlander or Adam Johnson?
Today is the first day of the major league draft. There are several things to remember about the major league draft that makes it a little different.
The first thing to realize is that it will likely be about 8 years before we can fully evaluate the results of today's draft. Tom Kelly used to say that it takes 1000 major league at bats before you know what kind of player you have. Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer all hit that 1000 at bat point about eight years after they were drafted. Joe Mauer is an exception who did better than that. Those were all high school players and college players will develop a little quicker than that. Todd Walker hit the 1000 at bat point 5 years after he was drafted and the Twins jettisoned him the next year.
The Twins 2004 draft gives you a pretty good perspective on what to expect. The Twins had three first round draft choices that year. There were two college players from that draft where we can make a pretty good estimate of the results, Glen Perkins and Matt Tolbert. There were also three high school players Trevor Plouffe, Anthony Swarzak and Kyle Waldrop who are still trying to establish themselves. That is pretty typical of most drafts. Some players will move quickly, but there will be others that will move much more slowly.
The second thing to understand is that the round a player was chosen is only a rough indicator of how likely they are to be successful major league players. Jacque Jones was a second round choice, but the 37th player chosen in the draft in 1996. Matt LeCroy, taken two years later in 1998, was a first round choice but the 50th player taken in the draft that year. Much has been made this year of the Twins 3 choices in the first round. Those choices are 2, 32 and 42. While they are all first round choices, that number two choice is dramatically different from the other two. To put that in perspective, look at the outcomes of each choice from ten years 1994-2003:
42: Marlon Anderson is the only player taken who reached 1000 major league at bats. Only four players even appeared in the big leagues. Since 2003, Clay Bucholz and Chris Perez have had some success.
32: No players taken 32 in those ten years reached 1000 major league at bats. Only six players appeared in the big leagues.
2: Six players have over 1000 major league at bats, five with over 3000 at bats. The other four players taken were pitchers Mark Prior, Josh Beckett, Mark Mulder and Adam Johnson. Every player taken appeared in the big leagues and only Adam Johnson would be considered a complete washout (although Ben Grieve and Ben Davis were not exactly huge successes).
So you have nine players taken with the second choice who had some success and only one player from 20 players taken in the other two positions the Twins will draft who even matched the worst of those nine players. It is that second round choice that makes this draft special for the Twins. They haven't drafted anywhere near that high since Joe Mauer was taken with the first choice in 2001. The only other time the Twins drafted higher than number 20 since then was 2008 when they took Aaron Hicks.
Here is how that 14th position played out from 1994-2003:
14: One player taken from 1994-2003 got more than 1000 at bats. Jason Snider and Billy Butler were chosen more recently and have reached 1000 at bats. Jeff Weaver and Ryan Wagner were the only pitchers taken from 1994-2003. Seven players total reached the majors.
If you think the Twins move players slowly, only four players taken with the 20th pick in the last ten years have made it to the major leagues. Three of them are Denard Span, Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee.
Here are the overall results of the 20th spot from 1994-2003
20: Two players with 1000 at bats, including Denard Span. Eric Milton and CC Sabathia were successful pitchers taken number 20. 8 of the ten players reached the big leagues.
To say the baseball draft is a bit of a crap shoot is an understatement. But it is not really true of the first few choices where the Twins are drafting this year. While success is never guaranteed, a second round choice should be expected to contribute at the major league level. When you get beyond the 20th choice, where the Twins have been drafting recently, any real major league success is a pleasant surprise.
Of course the Twins had several high draft choices at the turn of the century and they mostly washed out before they took Joe Mauer. Guys like Adam Johnson, Ryan Mills and BJ Garbe were all among the top ten players taken and none of them produced. Lets hope this year the Twins take a Justin Verlander (the number 2 choice in 2004) not another Adam Johnson, their last number 2 pick in 2000. Either way, the real fun is following these guys progress through the system and then seeing them emerge in the major leagues. And somtimes its the surprises that are the most interesting, like Justin Morneau, rather than the guys talked about on draft day.
The first thing to realize is that it will likely be about 8 years before we can fully evaluate the results of today's draft. Tom Kelly used to say that it takes 1000 major league at bats before you know what kind of player you have. Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer all hit that 1000 at bat point about eight years after they were drafted. Joe Mauer is an exception who did better than that. Those were all high school players and college players will develop a little quicker than that. Todd Walker hit the 1000 at bat point 5 years after he was drafted and the Twins jettisoned him the next year.
The Twins 2004 draft gives you a pretty good perspective on what to expect. The Twins had three first round draft choices that year. There were two college players from that draft where we can make a pretty good estimate of the results, Glen Perkins and Matt Tolbert. There were also three high school players Trevor Plouffe, Anthony Swarzak and Kyle Waldrop who are still trying to establish themselves. That is pretty typical of most drafts. Some players will move quickly, but there will be others that will move much more slowly.
The second thing to understand is that the round a player was chosen is only a rough indicator of how likely they are to be successful major league players. Jacque Jones was a second round choice, but the 37th player chosen in the draft in 1996. Matt LeCroy, taken two years later in 1998, was a first round choice but the 50th player taken in the draft that year. Much has been made this year of the Twins 3 choices in the first round. Those choices are 2, 32 and 42. While they are all first round choices, that number two choice is dramatically different from the other two. To put that in perspective, look at the outcomes of each choice from ten years 1994-2003:
42: Marlon Anderson is the only player taken who reached 1000 major league at bats. Only four players even appeared in the big leagues. Since 2003, Clay Bucholz and Chris Perez have had some success.
32: No players taken 32 in those ten years reached 1000 major league at bats. Only six players appeared in the big leagues.
2: Six players have over 1000 major league at bats, five with over 3000 at bats. The other four players taken were pitchers Mark Prior, Josh Beckett, Mark Mulder and Adam Johnson. Every player taken appeared in the big leagues and only Adam Johnson would be considered a complete washout (although Ben Grieve and Ben Davis were not exactly huge successes).
So you have nine players taken with the second choice who had some success and only one player from 20 players taken in the other two positions the Twins will draft who even matched the worst of those nine players. It is that second round choice that makes this draft special for the Twins. They haven't drafted anywhere near that high since Joe Mauer was taken with the first choice in 2001. The only other time the Twins drafted higher than number 20 since then was 2008 when they took Aaron Hicks.
Here is how that 14th position played out from 1994-2003:
14: One player taken from 1994-2003 got more than 1000 at bats. Jason Snider and Billy Butler were chosen more recently and have reached 1000 at bats. Jeff Weaver and Ryan Wagner were the only pitchers taken from 1994-2003. Seven players total reached the majors.
If you think the Twins move players slowly, only four players taken with the 20th pick in the last ten years have made it to the major leagues. Three of them are Denard Span, Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee.
Here are the overall results of the 20th spot from 1994-2003
20: Two players with 1000 at bats, including Denard Span. Eric Milton and CC Sabathia were successful pitchers taken number 20. 8 of the ten players reached the big leagues.
To say the baseball draft is a bit of a crap shoot is an understatement. But it is not really true of the first few choices where the Twins are drafting this year. While success is never guaranteed, a second round choice should be expected to contribute at the major league level. When you get beyond the 20th choice, where the Twins have been drafting recently, any real major league success is a pleasant surprise.
Of course the Twins had several high draft choices at the turn of the century and they mostly washed out before they took Joe Mauer. Guys like Adam Johnson, Ryan Mills and BJ Garbe were all among the top ten players taken and none of them produced. Lets hope this year the Twins take a Justin Verlander (the number 2 choice in 2004) not another Adam Johnson, their last number 2 pick in 2000. Either way, the real fun is following these guys progress through the system and then seeing them emerge in the major leagues. And somtimes its the surprises that are the most interesting, like Justin Morneau, rather than the guys talked about on draft day.
Sunday, April 08, 2012
Twins Stink!
As one fan put it, "Opening Day! We're going to win 162 games this year!" That fan was mocking themselves, unfortunately the media isn't.
If you read the local media, including the blogsphere, you would think that the Twins had never lost two games before or looked bad doing it. But its funny how bad looking games often turn into losses and vice versa. What have we learned from the first two games of the season? Nothing. And its simply silly to pretend we have.
Of course, some people may have had unrealistic expectations based on spring training. Those are the folks who are alarmed at Francisco Liriano's performance yesterday. They imagined Liriano as a dominant ace and Cy Young candidate. What we saw yesterday was, instead, a typical Liriano. We also have seen the Twins suspect defense at work. Valencia may be a better fielder, but he isn't a gold glove candidate. He is going to miss balls. Same with Willingham out in left field. They didn't sign him for his defense. We haven't yet seen the offense at the level we expected or will need to compete. But we have watched only two games against two pitchers.
We have also seen a typical Gardy move. He started Revere in right field after he put Doumit there for the opener and got burned. Doumit turned a fly ball into a triple. If that ball was caught, the game would likely have been at worst tied. If you were keeping track of games lost by weak defense, the opener was a good start. Despite the defensive misplays yesterday, that game wouldn't be on the list. The defense was worse, but it didn't explain the loss. Instead, Liriano had a signature game.
Fortunately, this is baseball. Liriano will have good days where he looks like "Franchise". He always does. And the Twins will have good days. Every baseball team does. We need to watch a lot more games to have any better idea of the balance between the two than we had three days ago.
There are still 160 games to play. Lets try not to turn each of them into a new defining event for what kind of team the Twins have this year. Oh, wait. Expecting that from the media is the same as expecting Liriano to be consistent. Its wishful thinking.
The roller coaster is the most popular ride in most amusement parks and sports writers are, after all, in the entertainment business. They get paid to attract an audience.
Hang on to your hats! Because if Swarzak pitches well today, there will be calls for him to replace Liriano in the rotation tomorrow. That ought to get someone a few more page hits.
If you read the local media, including the blogsphere, you would think that the Twins had never lost two games before or looked bad doing it. But its funny how bad looking games often turn into losses and vice versa. What have we learned from the first two games of the season? Nothing. And its simply silly to pretend we have.
Of course, some people may have had unrealistic expectations based on spring training. Those are the folks who are alarmed at Francisco Liriano's performance yesterday. They imagined Liriano as a dominant ace and Cy Young candidate. What we saw yesterday was, instead, a typical Liriano. We also have seen the Twins suspect defense at work. Valencia may be a better fielder, but he isn't a gold glove candidate. He is going to miss balls. Same with Willingham out in left field. They didn't sign him for his defense. We haven't yet seen the offense at the level we expected or will need to compete. But we have watched only two games against two pitchers.
We have also seen a typical Gardy move. He started Revere in right field after he put Doumit there for the opener and got burned. Doumit turned a fly ball into a triple. If that ball was caught, the game would likely have been at worst tied. If you were keeping track of games lost by weak defense, the opener was a good start. Despite the defensive misplays yesterday, that game wouldn't be on the list. The defense was worse, but it didn't explain the loss. Instead, Liriano had a signature game.
Fortunately, this is baseball. Liriano will have good days where he looks like "Franchise". He always does. And the Twins will have good days. Every baseball team does. We need to watch a lot more games to have any better idea of the balance between the two than we had three days ago.
There are still 160 games to play. Lets try not to turn each of them into a new defining event for what kind of team the Twins have this year. Oh, wait. Expecting that from the media is the same as expecting Liriano to be consistent. Its wishful thinking.
The roller coaster is the most popular ride in most amusement parks and sports writers are, after all, in the entertainment business. They get paid to attract an audience.
Hang on to your hats! Because if Swarzak pitches well today, there will be calls for him to replace Liriano in the rotation tomorrow. That ought to get someone a few more page hits.
Friday, April 06, 2012
Opening Day - Can the Twins Win the Division?
Its opening day when all fans are optimists about their home team. But is there really a realistic chance for the Twins to win the division? The answer is certainly yes. There are two barriers to them being a contender. But both could be overcome.
The first is the Detroit Tigers. It is very unlikely, even with the best of outcomes, the Twins could beat the team Detroit has on paper. On paper, the Tigers are by far the best team in the division. Its hard to imagine the Twins being able to beat them if the Tigers stay healthy and play up to their ability. But, as we should have learned as Twins fans last year, teams don't always do either of those things. The Twins need to Tigers to stumble to have a shot, but there is nothing unrealistic about that happening.
In addition to the Tigers stumbling, the Twins will need to have some breaks. That includes their core players staying healthy and playing up to their ability. The mantra around Mauer and Morneau being the key to the Twins success remains true. You can add Span to that list. But the Twin offense looks like it can produce some runs and the starting pitching, while hardly outstanding, has five guys who have shown they can keep their team in the game. That combination can win a lot of games.
Is it likely the Twins will win the division? No. Is it realistically possible? Yes. That's why they play the games.
The first is the Detroit Tigers. It is very unlikely, even with the best of outcomes, the Twins could beat the team Detroit has on paper. On paper, the Tigers are by far the best team in the division. Its hard to imagine the Twins being able to beat them if the Tigers stay healthy and play up to their ability. But, as we should have learned as Twins fans last year, teams don't always do either of those things. The Twins need to Tigers to stumble to have a shot, but there is nothing unrealistic about that happening.
In addition to the Tigers stumbling, the Twins will need to have some breaks. That includes their core players staying healthy and playing up to their ability. The mantra around Mauer and Morneau being the key to the Twins success remains true. You can add Span to that list. But the Twin offense looks like it can produce some runs and the starting pitching, while hardly outstanding, has five guys who have shown they can keep their team in the game. That combination can win a lot of games.
Is it likely the Twins will win the division? No. Is it realistically possible? Yes. That's why they play the games.
Parmelee Batting 8th
Ron Gardenhire made a point about his offense by pointing out that Chris Parmelee was going to be batting 8th. Parmelee forced his way onto the roster with this bat last fall and this spring. In Gardenhire's view, that he is batting at the bottom of the order is an indication of how strong his lineup is. I thought it would be interesting to compare today's opening day lineup to last years.
Here is the 2011 lineup:
Span
Carroll
Mauer
Morneau
Willingham
Doumit
Valencia
Parmelee
Casilla
The opening day lineup in 2010 looked like this:
Span
Nishioka
Mauer
Morneau
Young
Cuddyer
Kubel
Valencia
Casilla
The differences:
Carroll vs Nishioka
I am not sure I have higher hopes for Carroll than I did for Nishioka last year. But he will almost certainly, absent injury, produce better results. This will be a definite improvement.
Young vs Willingham
Again, the expectations for Young were much higher than his actual performance. Willingham will likely be an improvement.
Doumit vs. Cuddyer
Doumit has the advantage of being a switch hitter. He doesn't have Cuddyer's power, but he will hit for a slightly better average. Overall, last year's lineup with Cuddyer was stronger. The Twins will be very pleased if they get that kind of production here.
Valencia vs Kubel
Kubel was a much better hitter than Valencia. Its unlikely Valencia will match even Kubel's injury limited season.
Parmelee vs Valencia
This is hard to judge, given Parmelee has limited major league experience. If his bat really warrants his promotion to the big leagues, he should be more productive than Valencia last year. But that isn't guaranteed.
The folks that are coming back in the same spot are Span, Mauer, Morneau and Casilla. If any of them stay healthy, they will be more productive than last year.
In addition to improvements from those four, the Twins can expect better output from Carroll, Willingham and perhaps Parmelee. They will likely get worse production from Valencia and Doumit. Overall, its clear the key to offensive improvement from last year's isn't the off-season acquisitions or the development of young players. Its staying healthy. Big surprise.
Here is the 2011 lineup:
Span
Carroll
Mauer
Morneau
Willingham
Doumit
Valencia
Parmelee
Casilla
The opening day lineup in 2010 looked like this:
Span
Nishioka
Mauer
Morneau
Young
Cuddyer
Kubel
Valencia
Casilla
The differences:
Carroll vs Nishioka
I am not sure I have higher hopes for Carroll than I did for Nishioka last year. But he will almost certainly, absent injury, produce better results. This will be a definite improvement.
Young vs Willingham
Again, the expectations for Young were much higher than his actual performance. Willingham will likely be an improvement.
Doumit vs. Cuddyer
Doumit has the advantage of being a switch hitter. He doesn't have Cuddyer's power, but he will hit for a slightly better average. Overall, last year's lineup with Cuddyer was stronger. The Twins will be very pleased if they get that kind of production here.
Valencia vs Kubel
Kubel was a much better hitter than Valencia. Its unlikely Valencia will match even Kubel's injury limited season.
Parmelee vs Valencia
This is hard to judge, given Parmelee has limited major league experience. If his bat really warrants his promotion to the big leagues, he should be more productive than Valencia last year. But that isn't guaranteed.
The folks that are coming back in the same spot are Span, Mauer, Morneau and Casilla. If any of them stay healthy, they will be more productive than last year.
In addition to improvements from those four, the Twins can expect better output from Carroll, Willingham and perhaps Parmelee. They will likely get worse production from Valencia and Doumit. Overall, its clear the key to offensive improvement from last year's isn't the off-season acquisitions or the development of young players. Its staying healthy. Big surprise.
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