There is a lot of angst about the Twins bullpen. It has now reached a point that one of the local Minnesota sports writers is suggesting the Twins should be dealing for "two or three" new relievers next year. That seems like a huge over-reaction to an overworked bullpen.
The reality is that the Twins relief corps has more appearances and faced more batters than it did last year. And last year it was not underworked either. In 2008, with six games remaining, the relievers have made 460 appearances and faced 2032 batters. In 2007, they made 438 appearances and faced 2001 batters. In 2006, it was 421 appearances and 2066 batters and in 2005 it was 396 appearances and 1841 batters. This year's bullpen will have made the most appearances of the Gardenhire era and it will come close or surpass the largest number of batters faced.
That is hardly a surprise. The Twins rotation has been filled with young pitchers who have rarely pitched deep into games. In fact, Slowey and Baker are the only current members of the rotation who have averaged over 6 innings per start, and then only barely. Even "innings eater" Livan Hernandez ended up with only slighty over 6 innings per start after all his early exits at the end of his stint with the Twins.
So where are things for next year? Its likely that, with a year's experience behind them, the young starters will give the Twins more innings and a rested bullpen will be more productive. Aside from that, the Twins also have a lot of possible young pitchers who could step up and make the bullpen that much stronger. Here is what the bullpen looks like for next year:
Returning:
Nathan
Guerrier
Crain
Breslow
Bonser
(Neshek)
Free Agents:
Reyes
Guardado
Prospects:
Humber
Mijares
Korecky
Guerrier, Crain and Bonser all have the experience and talent to be late inning setup guys. As does Neshek if he recovers. Mijares and Humber have the talent but they need experience. The rumor is that Humber is out of options, so they will have to find a place for him either in the bullpen or the rotation. My guess is that the Twins will try to resign Reyes. They might bring Guardado to spring training if he can't find anyone willing to give him a guaranteed contract.
In any case, it does not really look like the Twins have room for one, much less two or three, relievers. If they can find one dependable veteran who can bridge the 8th inning that doesn't cost and arm and leg in prospects or salary then they should make a move. But they are not really desperate for more options in the bullpen. What they really need is less work.
Showing posts with label 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Monday, March 24, 2008
Doesn't Look Good
So the Twins have all but finished their roster to start the season. In past years the Twins have relied on pitching and defense to make up for a mediocre offense. But that has changed. Unfortunately the offense looks like it will still be mediocre, but the pitching and defense look to be even worse.
Lets look at the defense:
Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer are back in their same spots. The new players are Harris/Tolbert, Everett, Lamb, Young and Gomez. Everett projects as an improvement over Bartlett. We will have to wait and see how young does in left field, but he probably won't be much worse than last year's collection in any case. But Harris, Lamb and Gomez are not going to provide the defense the Twins have been used to. Gomez has the range and arm to replace Torii in center field, but he is going to need a few years to add the experience Torii brought to the position. Lamb and Harris are both simply questionable defensive players replacing guys whose defense was a strength.
Much has been made of the Twins young pitching, but it is pretty clear Liriano is not going to immediately provide the ace the staff lacks. Baker may or may not be ready to start the year either. The rest of the pitching staff is mediocre - albeit with a lot of depth. Herandez will give them innings and, along with Bonser, is a solid 4th starter. Slowey did well this spring and may be a decent 4th starter as well. You will notice a pattern here. The Twins have guys who will keep them in the game, but they are not going to put the other team away very often. And they aren't going to have the same defensive support Twins pitchers have enjoyed in the past.
The bullpen is supposed to be a Twins strength. But Guerrier, Rincon and Crain did not shine this spring and they only have one lefty in Reyes. The bullpen still looks good, but not guaranteed to be dominant even with Nathan closing. And the starting staff may make matters worse by forcing the bullpen to eat a lot of innings.
So the question is has the Twins offense improved? Probably a little bit with the potential to be a lot better. They lost Torii Hunter (and Luis Castillo) , but they added Harris, Lamb, Young, Monroe and Gomez. A lot will depend on how the young players develop. Gomez, Young, Kubel, Mauer and even Morneau are all on the spot to create an offense that can carry the team, rather than just support an outstanding pitching staff.
In the end, spring training added more questions than it answered.
Lets look at the defense:
Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer are back in their same spots. The new players are Harris/Tolbert, Everett, Lamb, Young and Gomez. Everett projects as an improvement over Bartlett. We will have to wait and see how young does in left field, but he probably won't be much worse than last year's collection in any case. But Harris, Lamb and Gomez are not going to provide the defense the Twins have been used to. Gomez has the range and arm to replace Torii in center field, but he is going to need a few years to add the experience Torii brought to the position. Lamb and Harris are both simply questionable defensive players replacing guys whose defense was a strength.
Much has been made of the Twins young pitching, but it is pretty clear Liriano is not going to immediately provide the ace the staff lacks. Baker may or may not be ready to start the year either. The rest of the pitching staff is mediocre - albeit with a lot of depth. Herandez will give them innings and, along with Bonser, is a solid 4th starter. Slowey did well this spring and may be a decent 4th starter as well. You will notice a pattern here. The Twins have guys who will keep them in the game, but they are not going to put the other team away very often. And they aren't going to have the same defensive support Twins pitchers have enjoyed in the past.
The bullpen is supposed to be a Twins strength. But Guerrier, Rincon and Crain did not shine this spring and they only have one lefty in Reyes. The bullpen still looks good, but not guaranteed to be dominant even with Nathan closing. And the starting staff may make matters worse by forcing the bullpen to eat a lot of innings.
So the question is has the Twins offense improved? Probably a little bit with the potential to be a lot better. They lost Torii Hunter (and Luis Castillo) , but they added Harris, Lamb, Young, Monroe and Gomez. A lot will depend on how the young players develop. Gomez, Young, Kubel, Mauer and even Morneau are all on the spot to create an offense that can carry the team, rather than just support an outstanding pitching staff.
In the end, spring training added more questions than it answered.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Twins 2008
Twins fans are likely to have their patience tested this season. One look at the rotation tells you that April and May are likely to see a lot of young pitchers trying to demonstrate they belong in a big league rotation. And its very likely some of them will be demonstrating that they don't belong. At least not yet.
But with all the questions in the rotation, there are also a lot of potential answers. And that is true of the position players as well. The Twins talent last year was very shallow. This year, its not. Looking at the team position, by position they have major league players at most positions and young players who might be able to take the job if someone stumbles or gets hurt. In a couple cases, they have players who, by the end of the season, might just be better than the veteran who has the job to start.
Catcher
This was a position of depth last year and it remains that way this year. Mauer and Redmond provide a solid major league catching staff. Behind them are young prospects Jose Morales and Drew Butera, one an offensive catcher, the other defensive. They aren't going to take the major league catchers' jobs. But they provide some real depth in case of injury.
First Base
Here the Twins are thin after Justin Morneau. If he should get hurt, the Twins would be scrambling to find a replacement. This is the thinnest position in the Twins system.
Second Base
Brendan Harris probably has this job to start the season. Punto is the backup. But Alex Casilla may be ready to take the job away from Harris by mid-season.
Shortstop
Clearly Adam Everett will start the season for the Twins at shortstop. His bat will never impress anyone but his defense will. Again, Punto is the backup. But also again there are players in the minor leagues who could take Everett's job, regardless of his defensive skills. Casilla is one guy who could do that. The other is Trevor Plouffe. Its not going to happen to start the season, but by July either of these two could be forcing their way onto the major league roster.
Third Base
Mike Lamb is going to the starter. Chances are he will not hit lefties and Punto will see most of his action at third base against left handed pitchers. The minor league options here are not strong. Buys like Watkins, Basak and Macri are not going to take the job away from Lamb. Cut Harris might if Casilla is ready to take the job at second base.
Utility
Punto will have this job. The minor leagues have players like Basak, Macri, Watkins and Tolbert. None of them have the defensive skills you look for at shortstop. But they give some depth to the infield in case of injuries.
Left Field
Delmon Young is set here. There isn't anyone in the minor leagues who would take this job even if Young was hurt. Jason Kubel is the backup. Craig Monroe can play left. So, probably, can Michael Cuddyer.
Center Field
There are three guys in this competition, and really only one likely winner. Gomez will start the season in center field unless he really struggles in spring training. But Pridie or Span could take the job away from him if he stumbles to start the season.
Right Field
Cuddyer starts here, Young is probably the backup. Monroe can play right and Kubel probably can in a pinch.
Extra Outfielders:
Monroe, Kubel will be available as backups in the outfield. Monroe can play center field, but its possible Pridie could win a roster spot out of spring training as well and give the Twins a true center fielder as a backup to Gomez. Span and Pridie would both be players who might start the season in the minor leagues, but win a bench job sometime during the year.
DH
Kubel will be DH'ing most of the time. He will probably not see much duty against tough left handers. At least, not to start the year.
Summary
The Twins appear to be much deeper than they were last year. They will start the year with some true prospects at AAA, players who should improve and eventually win major league jobs. Combined with the young pitching staff, that may mean a team that is much better by July than it was in April. Its unlikely the young players will develop quickly enough to make the Twins contenders this year. But its not impossible. A lot will depend on how close the Twins can hang in while they are sorting out all the young talent.
But with all the questions in the rotation, there are also a lot of potential answers. And that is true of the position players as well. The Twins talent last year was very shallow. This year, its not. Looking at the team position, by position they have major league players at most positions and young players who might be able to take the job if someone stumbles or gets hurt. In a couple cases, they have players who, by the end of the season, might just be better than the veteran who has the job to start.
Catcher
This was a position of depth last year and it remains that way this year. Mauer and Redmond provide a solid major league catching staff. Behind them are young prospects Jose Morales and Drew Butera, one an offensive catcher, the other defensive. They aren't going to take the major league catchers' jobs. But they provide some real depth in case of injury.
First Base
Here the Twins are thin after Justin Morneau. If he should get hurt, the Twins would be scrambling to find a replacement. This is the thinnest position in the Twins system.
Second Base
Brendan Harris probably has this job to start the season. Punto is the backup. But Alex Casilla may be ready to take the job away from Harris by mid-season.
Shortstop
Clearly Adam Everett will start the season for the Twins at shortstop. His bat will never impress anyone but his defense will. Again, Punto is the backup. But also again there are players in the minor leagues who could take Everett's job, regardless of his defensive skills. Casilla is one guy who could do that. The other is Trevor Plouffe. Its not going to happen to start the season, but by July either of these two could be forcing their way onto the major league roster.
Third Base
Mike Lamb is going to the starter. Chances are he will not hit lefties and Punto will see most of his action at third base against left handed pitchers. The minor league options here are not strong. Buys like Watkins, Basak and Macri are not going to take the job away from Lamb. Cut Harris might if Casilla is ready to take the job at second base.
Utility
Punto will have this job. The minor leagues have players like Basak, Macri, Watkins and Tolbert. None of them have the defensive skills you look for at shortstop. But they give some depth to the infield in case of injuries.
Left Field
Delmon Young is set here. There isn't anyone in the minor leagues who would take this job even if Young was hurt. Jason Kubel is the backup. Craig Monroe can play left. So, probably, can Michael Cuddyer.
Center Field
There are three guys in this competition, and really only one likely winner. Gomez will start the season in center field unless he really struggles in spring training. But Pridie or Span could take the job away from him if he stumbles to start the season.
Right Field
Cuddyer starts here, Young is probably the backup. Monroe can play right and Kubel probably can in a pinch.
Extra Outfielders:
Monroe, Kubel will be available as backups in the outfield. Monroe can play center field, but its possible Pridie could win a roster spot out of spring training as well and give the Twins a true center fielder as a backup to Gomez. Span and Pridie would both be players who might start the season in the minor leagues, but win a bench job sometime during the year.
DH
Kubel will be DH'ing most of the time. He will probably not see much duty against tough left handers. At least, not to start the year.
Summary
The Twins appear to be much deeper than they were last year. They will start the year with some true prospects at AAA, players who should improve and eventually win major league jobs. Combined with the young pitching staff, that may mean a team that is much better by July than it was in April. Its unlikely the young players will develop quickly enough to make the Twins contenders this year. But its not impossible. A lot will depend on how close the Twins can hang in while they are sorting out all the young talent.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Twins 2008
Can the Twins compete in 2008? Both Cleveland and Detroit got noticeably better on paper. But, as everyone knows, the game is played on the field. How do the Twins compare to last year?
To start with its pretty clear their rotation is totally unsettled. They will have to get very lucky with a bunch of talented young pitchers all becoming major league starters at the same time. That is unlikely. But, assuming the young starters come through, what does the rest of the team look like compared to last year:
Catcher: +
Mauer should have a better year than last. Redmond will remain a solid backup. The Twins should be as good or better in 2008.
First Base: +
Morneau had a slight down year last year. As with Mauer, you would expect some improvement and a repeat of his 2006 season is not out of the question.
Second Base: -
Castillo looked like a player starting his decline last year. That doesn't mean the Twins will be better this year. This job is probably Brendan Harris' to lose. He will not match Castillo defensively or offensively. Cassilla could steal the job from Harris, but to do it he will probably have to be an improvement over Castillo last year.
Shortstop: +
Everett's bat will not match Bartlett's, but he will provide better defense at a defensive position. I think that will net out to a little improvement.
Third Base: +
Punto offense was simply unacceptable at third regardless of his defense. The Twins will lose a lot of defense with Lamb, but they will pick up a lot of offense.
Left Field: +
Delmon Young will be a huge improvement over Rondell White, Lew Ford et al. offensively and defensively.
Center Field: -
Gomez defense will make losing Hunter a lot less painful for the pitching staff. His bat will not begin to match Hunters - at least not in 2008.
Right Field: +
Cuddyer should have a better year than last year.
DH: +
Kubel will be better, Monroe will give him a rest against tough lefties.
Bench: +
Redmond
Punto
Monroe
Punto is really at his best as a utility player, Monroe gives the Twins a solid bat on the bench and Redmond has shown he is solid as a backup catcher. I'm guessing there will only be one other bench player. Jones, Pridie, McDonald, Machado ... There is a long list of players who could win a spot with their performance in spring training. But overall, the bench should be better with Monroe and Punto.
Despite losing Torii Hunter and Luis Castillo from last year's opening lineup. The Twins should have a considerably improved everyday lineup this year.
Bullpen: +
Nathan
Neshek -
Rincon +
Guerrier -
Crain+
Reyes
Based on their having good years last year, we can expect some decline from Neshek and Guerrier. Likewise Rincon should rebound and Crain will add another solid arm if he is full recovered from injury. My guess is that there will be seven relievers with Zach Day or one of the losers in the starting rotation competition taking that spot as a inning eater. Given the Twins are going to be sorting through a lot of young pitching, keeping the bullpen fresh is going to be a real challenge. But the bullpen still looks like one of the Twins real strengths, at least as long as Nathan is still around.
The biggest challenge for the Twins is going to be sorting through the young starting pitchers.
You can almost guarantee that a couple of guys who win jobs in spring training will lose them in the first couple months of the season. If that musical chairs continues all summer the Twins will have little or no chance. But if they can settle their starters in the first couple months, they have an everyday lineup that can compete.
To start with its pretty clear their rotation is totally unsettled. They will have to get very lucky with a bunch of talented young pitchers all becoming major league starters at the same time. That is unlikely. But, assuming the young starters come through, what does the rest of the team look like compared to last year:
Catcher: +
Mauer should have a better year than last. Redmond will remain a solid backup. The Twins should be as good or better in 2008.
First Base: +
Morneau had a slight down year last year. As with Mauer, you would expect some improvement and a repeat of his 2006 season is not out of the question.
Second Base: -
Castillo looked like a player starting his decline last year. That doesn't mean the Twins will be better this year. This job is probably Brendan Harris' to lose. He will not match Castillo defensively or offensively. Cassilla could steal the job from Harris, but to do it he will probably have to be an improvement over Castillo last year.
Shortstop: +
Everett's bat will not match Bartlett's, but he will provide better defense at a defensive position. I think that will net out to a little improvement.
Third Base: +
Punto offense was simply unacceptable at third regardless of his defense. The Twins will lose a lot of defense with Lamb, but they will pick up a lot of offense.
Left Field: +
Delmon Young will be a huge improvement over Rondell White, Lew Ford et al. offensively and defensively.
Center Field: -
Gomez defense will make losing Hunter a lot less painful for the pitching staff. His bat will not begin to match Hunters - at least not in 2008.
Right Field: +
Cuddyer should have a better year than last year.
DH: +
Kubel will be better, Monroe will give him a rest against tough lefties.
Bench: +
Redmond
Punto
Monroe
Punto is really at his best as a utility player, Monroe gives the Twins a solid bat on the bench and Redmond has shown he is solid as a backup catcher. I'm guessing there will only be one other bench player. Jones, Pridie, McDonald, Machado ... There is a long list of players who could win a spot with their performance in spring training. But overall, the bench should be better with Monroe and Punto.
Despite losing Torii Hunter and Luis Castillo from last year's opening lineup. The Twins should have a considerably improved everyday lineup this year.
Bullpen: +
Nathan
Neshek -
Rincon +
Guerrier -
Crain+
Reyes
Based on their having good years last year, we can expect some decline from Neshek and Guerrier. Likewise Rincon should rebound and Crain will add another solid arm if he is full recovered from injury. My guess is that there will be seven relievers with Zach Day or one of the losers in the starting rotation competition taking that spot as a inning eater. Given the Twins are going to be sorting through a lot of young pitching, keeping the bullpen fresh is going to be a real challenge. But the bullpen still looks like one of the Twins real strengths, at least as long as Nathan is still around.
The biggest challenge for the Twins is going to be sorting through the young starting pitchers.
You can almost guarantee that a couple of guys who win jobs in spring training will lose them in the first couple months of the season. If that musical chairs continues all summer the Twins will have little or no chance. But if they can settle their starters in the first couple months, they have an everyday lineup that can compete.
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