The discussion in the Twins blogsphere is all about what the Twins should do about a closer for next year. Many of these bloggers start with the idea that closers are overpaid, not that important and misused. Ignore them. Whether they are right or wrong, all their ideas about what the Twins should do flow from this basic disagreement with baseball professionals responsible for putting together a team. They are almost guaranteed to be disappointed by the ultimate decision.
You can see that in the evaluations of Matt Capps. Some people have even claimed that the Ramos-for-Capps trade has already been a net loss for the Twins. To arrive at that conclusion you have to believe that Matt Capps had nothing to do with the Twins winning the division in 2010. Because that is the only way Wilson Ramos would have contributed more as a backup catcher on a losing team last year is if Capps contributed almost nothing to the Twins in 2010. In fact, you could make the case that Capps had more value in 2011 than Ramos would have provided as a backup catcher, given the alternatives. Which is not to claim the trade will turn out that way. Ramos may eventually become a star, but that hasn't happened yet.
If you look at the prices being paid for closers signed to multi-year agreements, the one-year commitment to Capps last year is looking better and better. Far from being overpaid, Capps was relatively cheap for a proven closer. Joe Nathan cost Texas a $14.5 million guarantee. That's more per year than Capps made last year and double the total financial commitment. Whether Capps can get a similar deal after his performance last season is questionable. Its important to remember Nathan is almost 10 years older than Capps and coming off an injury, but he has a longer track record of success.
Some people have suggested the Twins would be better off to take the draft choice they will receive if Capps signs elsewhere. There is no doubt that is true on one level. But only if they think they can sign someone else who is comparable at the same overall cost. Given that supplemental draft choices cost money in the form of a bonus and often don't work out despite investment in their development, that draft choice probably is not a major factor in the decision.
It looks like Capps, as a known quantity, is the Twins first choice. I suspect they will move on only if it looks like he is going to command more than a two year contract at a Nathan-level annual salary.