Twins Record is No Fluke

The last couple posts I compared how the Twins pitching and hitting had changed this season compared to 2014, based on the number of runs teams scored by game. To repeat that information through 46 games:

Twins Scoring:

2014
14 games >=6
21 games 3-5 runs
11 games <=2

2015
18 games >=6 runs
14 games 3-5 runs
14 games<=2 runs


Twins Opponents Scoring:

2014
19 games >= 6 runs
18 games 3-5 runs
9 games <=2 runs

2015
11 games >=6 runs
17 games 3-5 runs
18 games <=2 runs

The Twins at this point in the season last year were a .500 team. But if you look at their numbers, they had been held to 2 or fewer runs 2 more times than their opponents and their opponents had scored 6 or more runs 5 more times than the Twins. They probably should have been about 7 games under .500 if they had not gotten some breaks.

In 2015, by contrast to 2014, the Twins have held their opponents to 2 or fewer runs 4 more times than their opponents have and allowed 6 or more runs 7 fewer times. That would put them about 9 games over .500. Very close to where they actually are.

At least based on this comparison, it does not appear that the Twins are living on borrowed time. Instead the improvement in their pitching really has transformed them into a team capable of contending. Its certainly possible that they will once again collapse, but, unlike 2014, there isn't any real reason to expect it.

Twins Offense is About the Same as Last Year

Yesterday I did a comparison of the Twins pitching based on how they have done in limiting runs in individual games. I thought looking at how the Twins offense had done would be useful. I am looking at the first 46 games so that the numbers can be compared to yesterday's pitching numbers.

2015:

18 games >=6 runs
14 games 3-5 runs
14 games<=2 runs


2014

14 games >=6
21 games 3-5 runs
11 games <=2

While the Twins have scored 6 or more runs four more times this year, they have also scored 2 or fewer runs three more times. There has been really little difference in the offenses contribution to winning individual games.

Simple Comparison Shows Reason for Twins Improvement

Here is a comparison of how many runs the Twins' pitchers have allowed in games this year compared to last year:

2015
11 games >=6 runs
18 games <=2 runs
17 games 3-5 runs

2014
19 games >= 6 runs
9 games <=2 runs
18 games 3-5 runs

In short Twins pitchers have given up 6 or runs in a game 8 fewer times while limiting the other team to 2 or less runs 9 more times. I don't think you need to look any further to understand why the Twins record was 23-23 last year and 28-18 this year. In fact, you might ask why the difference isn't even larger.

Its really pretty simple why the Twins are contenders this year. For the first time in many seasons, no one is in the rotation by default. Far from it. Milone is a major league pitcher stuck at AAA only because there is no room for him. And that is even after losing their most accomplished pitcher in Santana. It shows once again that Tom Kelly was right, you are only as good as your next day's pitcher. And that makes the Twins pretty good.