Sunday, May 31, 2015

Twins Record is No Fluke

The last couple posts I compared how the Twins pitching and hitting had changed this season compared to 2014, based on the number of runs teams scored by game. To repeat that information through 46 games:

Twins Scoring:

14 games >=6
21 games 3-5 runs
11 games <=2

18 games >=6 runs
14 games 3-5 runs
14 games<=2 runs

Twins Opponents Scoring:

19 games >= 6 runs
18 games 3-5 runs
9 games <=2 runs

11 games >=6 runs
17 games 3-5 runs
18 games <=2 runs

The Twins at this point in the season last year were a .500 team. But if you look at their numbers, they had been held to 2 or fewer runs 2 more times than their opponents and their opponents had scored 6 or more runs 5 more times than the Twins. They probably should have been about 7 games under .500 if they had not gotten some breaks.

In 2015, by contrast to 2014, the Twins have held their opponents to 2 or fewer runs 4 more times than their opponents have and allowed 6 or more runs 7 fewer times. That would put them about 9 games over .500. Very close to where they actually are.

At least based on this comparison, it does not appear that the Twins are living on borrowed time. Instead the improvement in their pitching really has transformed them into a team capable of contending. Its certainly possible that they will once again collapse, but, unlike 2014, there isn't any real reason to expect it.

1 comment:

Paul Brewer said...

Welcome back. I was afraid you had died.

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