Trades
Looking at the winter, what trades should the Twins investigate in order to improve the team? I think there are four potential moves they could make if they can find the right player:
1) Third base. While many people seem to think this is a prime spot for an offensive improvement, an above average defender at third would be a big boost to the Twins defense. While both Buscher and Harris are defensive liabilities, their bats are acceptable in the 7th spot in the batting order which is where whoever plays third is likely to end up.
2) A veteran ace starter. The Twins rotation lacks an established ace that can provide leadership to the pitching staff. Its unlikely the Twins can get one at an acceptable price, but adding a pitcher at the top of the rotation would add the depth their starting pitching lacks. Especially if they are able to get one without giving up one of their young starters. That is unlikely. But the Twins ought to see what opportunities there are to add to the top of the rotation.
3) Shortstop. If they sign Nick Punto, that may be enough. But there are real doubts about Punto's ability to hold up for an entire year. And Punto's offense, while acceptable in a number 8 hitter, is not great. Can the Twins find someone a little more durable who can improve the offense without sacrificing defense? Again it is unlikely. But they ought to explore options here.
4) Bullpen help. The Twins actually have a lot of depth in their bullpen. The question is whether they have someone who can get them through the 8th inning to Nathan. Looking for options to strengthen the bullpen just makes sense given its difficulties last year. But everyone is looking for pitching and the Twins already have a lot of depth here. They are not going to be helped by adding guys for the end of the bench.
If you look at those four "needs", none of them are really critical with the exception of shortstop. If they don't sign Punto, Harris is not really an acceptable alternative. And Tolbert probably isn't an everyday shortstop either.
Touchables
So what do the Twins have to trade? There is a long list of "untouchables" that various blogs have come up with. But lets start at the other end - who are the players the Twins have available to trade. Because you can't get something for nothing.
Starting with the minor leagues - I think basically everyone who spent most of their time in the minor leagues last year is trade-bait with the exception of Mijares. But none of that bait is likely to land a big fish. Humber, Mulvey, Duensing, Swarzak etc. There is a long list of pitchers the Twins can include in trades, but none of them are in the Garza category where other teams are going to be asking about them.
I think the starting staff is largely off-limits unless they are part of a trade that brings that staff ace in return. They just don't have a lot of pitchers who look like they are knocking on the door to get into the major leagues. And sticking Bonser back in the rotation in order to get a shortstop or third baseman seems to be a bad idea.
Nathan is probably off limits except as part of some mega-deal. I think they could trade anyone else in the bullpen in the right deal. Unless they come up with some additional bullpen help, I think Neshek is probably also off limits if he is considered healthy and untradable if he isn't. They also ought to be reluctant to give up Breslow, Mijares, Crain and Guerrier unless they get some other bullpen help. That leaves Bonser and Humber as guys who are available in trade. Their trade value isn't much different than the minor league pitching prospects.
Harris, Tolbert and Buscher are available in the infield, but they aren't likely to bring much in return. Morneau is untouchable and Cassilla all but untouchable. There really isn't much of value here to deal. Likewise, the catching staff is basically untradable.
The outfield is an interesting situation. As I pointed out in an earlier post what to do here is perplexing. They have five players (including Kubel) and four spots (including DH). Gomez and Young are potential future stars. They could be the heirs to Mauer and Morneau as core players that define the franchise. You don't give up those kinds of players for bullpen help. Span is the Twins leadoff hitter. Its difficult to see how the Twins improve by trading him unless they can get a leadoff hitter in return who can play shortstop or third base. Someone pointed out Kubel's numbers are very similar to Ortiz at the same age. Again, for the right player you could deal him. But you would want some long range value, not a fill-in for next year. That leaves Cuddyer. He wasn't really needed last year for the Twins to be competitive. Whether he would actually provide enough value to attract a shortstop, third baseman or staff ace in trade is doubtful. Trading him for bullpen help seems like a waste.
So there you have it. Four potential needs and almost nothing of real value to give up to fill them. With the exception of the outfield, the Twins just don't have players to trade without opening up another hole. The Twins are one of the youngest teams in baseball and their improvment is mostly going to have to come from those players maturing.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Twin Infield 2009
I think most people think that if the Twins are going to improve their offense and team defense it is going to have to be in the infield. Morneau is obviously set at first and Casilla gave every indication that he is going to be the second baseman and number two hitter. Some fans have suggested moving Casilla to shortstop, but it doesn't look like the Twins are interested in that idea.
So the left side of the infield is really where improvement can be expected. Punto is a free agent, but the Twins are expected to try to resign him. Buscher and Harris were the other two infielders who played most of the year. You can add Tolbert to that mix.
The minor leagues do not have a lot of players who appear ready. Trevor Plouffe is a shortstop and was a first round pick in the draft. But he is young and appears at least a year away. The Twins also have re-signed Alexander Machado, a guy they took in the Rule 5 draft a couple years ago who has been injured the last couple years. He hit well at AAA last year, but he has only played second base since his arm injury. If Punto isn't re-signed, Machado may get a shot at the utility player role, but he is more likely AAA roster filler along with Matt Macri.
There are two different needs here. Punto, if re-signed, is a good defensive shortstop and he had enough bat this last year to hold down the position. Compared to Punto, Harris is bit of a defensive liability at shortstop. He can play the position, but you probably don't want him out there every day. He will need to hit better to hold down a spot anywhere. Buscher's problem is also his glove. If he played gold glove defense, his bat would be enough. But he does not come close. Tolbert is probably not an everyday shortstop and is most likely a utility player. They aren't likely to bring Everett back again, but if they can't sign Punto that may be a possibility.
The opportunities for improvement here are more offense from both shortstop and third base and better defense from third base. I think it is important to remember that whoever plays these two positions they are likely to be the 7th and 8th batters in the lineup. The Twins have Kubel, Young and Cuddyer who can bat in the 5th and 6th spots. Its hard to imagine them picking up a third baseman who is going to be an improvement, much less a shortstop.
So the left side of the infield is really where improvement can be expected. Punto is a free agent, but the Twins are expected to try to resign him. Buscher and Harris were the other two infielders who played most of the year. You can add Tolbert to that mix.
The minor leagues do not have a lot of players who appear ready. Trevor Plouffe is a shortstop and was a first round pick in the draft. But he is young and appears at least a year away. The Twins also have re-signed Alexander Machado, a guy they took in the Rule 5 draft a couple years ago who has been injured the last couple years. He hit well at AAA last year, but he has only played second base since his arm injury. If Punto isn't re-signed, Machado may get a shot at the utility player role, but he is more likely AAA roster filler along with Matt Macri.
There are two different needs here. Punto, if re-signed, is a good defensive shortstop and he had enough bat this last year to hold down the position. Compared to Punto, Harris is bit of a defensive liability at shortstop. He can play the position, but you probably don't want him out there every day. He will need to hit better to hold down a spot anywhere. Buscher's problem is also his glove. If he played gold glove defense, his bat would be enough. But he does not come close. Tolbert is probably not an everyday shortstop and is most likely a utility player. They aren't likely to bring Everett back again, but if they can't sign Punto that may be a possibility.
The opportunities for improvement here are more offense from both shortstop and third base and better defense from third base. I think it is important to remember that whoever plays these two positions they are likely to be the 7th and 8th batters in the lineup. The Twins have Kubel, Young and Cuddyer who can bat in the 5th and 6th spots. Its hard to imagine them picking up a third baseman who is going to be an improvement, much less a shortstop.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Twins Outfield 2009
The Twins outfield situation is one of the most puzzling they have faced in a long time. They have five players who should be regulars in the outfield and they all bring a slightly different set of offensive and defensive skills to the table.
Jason Kubel is the least skilled of all the outfielders, which is why he is the Twins main DH. He isn't a bad outfielder, you could put him at one of the corners without any real concern. But the other outfielders all have above average defensive skills. His presence takes away the option of keeping the other four outfielders in the lineup by rotating them through the DH spot.
Offensively, Carlos Gomez brings the least immediate return of all the oufielders. His offensive potential, however, is almost unlimited. And he has a chance to take Tori Hunter's place as the franchise's best defensive center fielder ever. He isn't there yet, but the tools are. And it is that defense, combined with his offensive potential that keeps Gomez in the lineup.
The other candidate for center field, Denard Span, only gives up a little on defense to Gomez. Offensively he is a lot more polished. Most importantly, he has given the Twins a legitimate leadoff hitter for the first time in a long time. He can get on base and he can run. He even has gap power. Despite outstanding defensive skills, it is Span's offensive role that makes him indispensable.
Which brings us to Michael Cuddyer. It was Cuddyer's injury that gave Span a chance. The question is what to do with him if he is healthy next year. His arm makes him a plus defender in right field. But his range is nowhere near Span's and his return to that spot would mean a real downgrade on defense. He was signed after last season to provide some right-handed power in the middle of the lineup. And the Twins still need him in that role, but where does he play?
Delmon Young established himself as the Twins left fielder this year. And, with Cuddyer out, he gave the Twins a right handed bat in the middle of the order. He didn't hit for the power that people had expected, but that will likely come as he matures. He has above average range, he even played center field in Tampa, and his arm rivals Cuddyer's. His routes to balls still need some work but there appeared to be improvement there even as last year progressed. Like Gomez, Young's potential is almost unlimited.
So there are the choices the Twins are faced with. Do you sit a young player with unlimited potential, like Gomez or Young? Do you weaken your lineup by sitting Span, the only leadoff hitter on the team? Can you afford to lose Cuddyer's bat from the middle of the order? What about Kubel's?
Some people have suggested rotating these players, but that really doesn't solve the problem. It just means they are making the same tradeoffs only on different days. Is there a reason Span is critical to the lineup one day and not the next? I think the answer is no.
The other option is to platoon Cuddyer and Kubel at DH with an occasional rest day for the others depending on the opposing pitching, minor injuries etc. But you are paying Cuddyer an awful lot of money for a limited role against left-handed batters.
As of now, the Twins outfield looks awful deep. A few years ago, people said the same thing when the outfield included Hunter, Jones, Kielty, Ford and Mohr. But, with the exception of Hunter and maybe Jones, none of those players were comparable to the current five guys that are going to be fighting for playing time next year. Of course last year this problem took care of itself. And injuries, or regressions by one of the young players, may do the same thing next season. Too much depth is not the worst problem to have.
Jason Kubel is the least skilled of all the outfielders, which is why he is the Twins main DH. He isn't a bad outfielder, you could put him at one of the corners without any real concern. But the other outfielders all have above average defensive skills. His presence takes away the option of keeping the other four outfielders in the lineup by rotating them through the DH spot.
Offensively, Carlos Gomez brings the least immediate return of all the oufielders. His offensive potential, however, is almost unlimited. And he has a chance to take Tori Hunter's place as the franchise's best defensive center fielder ever. He isn't there yet, but the tools are. And it is that defense, combined with his offensive potential that keeps Gomez in the lineup.
The other candidate for center field, Denard Span, only gives up a little on defense to Gomez. Offensively he is a lot more polished. Most importantly, he has given the Twins a legitimate leadoff hitter for the first time in a long time. He can get on base and he can run. He even has gap power. Despite outstanding defensive skills, it is Span's offensive role that makes him indispensable.
Which brings us to Michael Cuddyer. It was Cuddyer's injury that gave Span a chance. The question is what to do with him if he is healthy next year. His arm makes him a plus defender in right field. But his range is nowhere near Span's and his return to that spot would mean a real downgrade on defense. He was signed after last season to provide some right-handed power in the middle of the lineup. And the Twins still need him in that role, but where does he play?
Delmon Young established himself as the Twins left fielder this year. And, with Cuddyer out, he gave the Twins a right handed bat in the middle of the order. He didn't hit for the power that people had expected, but that will likely come as he matures. He has above average range, he even played center field in Tampa, and his arm rivals Cuddyer's. His routes to balls still need some work but there appeared to be improvement there even as last year progressed. Like Gomez, Young's potential is almost unlimited.
So there are the choices the Twins are faced with. Do you sit a young player with unlimited potential, like Gomez or Young? Do you weaken your lineup by sitting Span, the only leadoff hitter on the team? Can you afford to lose Cuddyer's bat from the middle of the order? What about Kubel's?
Some people have suggested rotating these players, but that really doesn't solve the problem. It just means they are making the same tradeoffs only on different days. Is there a reason Span is critical to the lineup one day and not the next? I think the answer is no.
The other option is to platoon Cuddyer and Kubel at DH with an occasional rest day for the others depending on the opposing pitching, minor injuries etc. But you are paying Cuddyer an awful lot of money for a limited role against left-handed batters.
As of now, the Twins outfield looks awful deep. A few years ago, people said the same thing when the outfield included Hunter, Jones, Kielty, Ford and Mohr. But, with the exception of Hunter and maybe Jones, none of those players were comparable to the current five guys that are going to be fighting for playing time next year. Of course last year this problem took care of itself. And injuries, or regressions by one of the young players, may do the same thing next season. Too much depth is not the worst problem to have.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Twins Rotation - 2009
Barring trade or injury, the Twins rotation for 2009 seems pretty much settled. Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn and Perkins have all earned return engagements. Its hard to imagine any of them losing their spot in the rotation based on spring training performances, either by them or by any potential replacements. I don't recall the last time the Twins had a rotation settled from one through five for the following season. There may not have been a last time because it has never happened before.
Does that mean the Twins will have an outstanding rotation next year? No. They really lack a dominating ace. Baker is getting that buzz now, but he is really just the most dependable of the bunch. Liriano certainly has the talent and with another year into his recovery could take that spot. Slowey is a solid number three starter and Blackburn and Perkins both fill out the rotation. Its possible this crew will develop into a dominating rotation with another year of experience. Its also possible one of them will fall flat on their face next year. But at this point there is not much to do but watch with anticipation as it plays itself out next year
Does that mean the Twins will have an outstanding rotation next year? No. They really lack a dominating ace. Baker is getting that buzz now, but he is really just the most dependable of the bunch. Liriano certainly has the talent and with another year into his recovery could take that spot. Slowey is a solid number three starter and Blackburn and Perkins both fill out the rotation. Its possible this crew will develop into a dominating rotation with another year of experience. Its also possible one of them will fall flat on their face next year. But at this point there is not much to do but watch with anticipation as it plays itself out next year
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Twins Bullpen - 2009
There is a lot of angst about the Twins bullpen. It has now reached a point that one of the local Minnesota sports writers is suggesting the Twins should be dealing for "two or three" new relievers next year. That seems like a huge over-reaction to an overworked bullpen.
The reality is that the Twins relief corps has more appearances and faced more batters than it did last year. And last year it was not underworked either. In 2008, with six games remaining, the relievers have made 460 appearances and faced 2032 batters. In 2007, they made 438 appearances and faced 2001 batters. In 2006, it was 421 appearances and 2066 batters and in 2005 it was 396 appearances and 1841 batters. This year's bullpen will have made the most appearances of the Gardenhire era and it will come close or surpass the largest number of batters faced.
That is hardly a surprise. The Twins rotation has been filled with young pitchers who have rarely pitched deep into games. In fact, Slowey and Baker are the only current members of the rotation who have averaged over 6 innings per start, and then only barely. Even "innings eater" Livan Hernandez ended up with only slighty over 6 innings per start after all his early exits at the end of his stint with the Twins.
So where are things for next year? Its likely that, with a year's experience behind them, the young starters will give the Twins more innings and a rested bullpen will be more productive. Aside from that, the Twins also have a lot of possible young pitchers who could step up and make the bullpen that much stronger. Here is what the bullpen looks like for next year:
Returning:
Nathan
Guerrier
Crain
Breslow
Bonser
(Neshek)
Free Agents:
Reyes
Guardado
Prospects:
Humber
Mijares
Korecky
Guerrier, Crain and Bonser all have the experience and talent to be late inning setup guys. As does Neshek if he recovers. Mijares and Humber have the talent but they need experience. The rumor is that Humber is out of options, so they will have to find a place for him either in the bullpen or the rotation. My guess is that the Twins will try to resign Reyes. They might bring Guardado to spring training if he can't find anyone willing to give him a guaranteed contract.
In any case, it does not really look like the Twins have room for one, much less two or three, relievers. If they can find one dependable veteran who can bridge the 8th inning that doesn't cost and arm and leg in prospects or salary then they should make a move. But they are not really desperate for more options in the bullpen. What they really need is less work.
The reality is that the Twins relief corps has more appearances and faced more batters than it did last year. And last year it was not underworked either. In 2008, with six games remaining, the relievers have made 460 appearances and faced 2032 batters. In 2007, they made 438 appearances and faced 2001 batters. In 2006, it was 421 appearances and 2066 batters and in 2005 it was 396 appearances and 1841 batters. This year's bullpen will have made the most appearances of the Gardenhire era and it will come close or surpass the largest number of batters faced.
That is hardly a surprise. The Twins rotation has been filled with young pitchers who have rarely pitched deep into games. In fact, Slowey and Baker are the only current members of the rotation who have averaged over 6 innings per start, and then only barely. Even "innings eater" Livan Hernandez ended up with only slighty over 6 innings per start after all his early exits at the end of his stint with the Twins.
So where are things for next year? Its likely that, with a year's experience behind them, the young starters will give the Twins more innings and a rested bullpen will be more productive. Aside from that, the Twins also have a lot of possible young pitchers who could step up and make the bullpen that much stronger. Here is what the bullpen looks like for next year:
Returning:
Nathan
Guerrier
Crain
Breslow
Bonser
(Neshek)
Free Agents:
Reyes
Guardado
Prospects:
Humber
Mijares
Korecky
Guerrier, Crain and Bonser all have the experience and talent to be late inning setup guys. As does Neshek if he recovers. Mijares and Humber have the talent but they need experience. The rumor is that Humber is out of options, so they will have to find a place for him either in the bullpen or the rotation. My guess is that the Twins will try to resign Reyes. They might bring Guardado to spring training if he can't find anyone willing to give him a guaranteed contract.
In any case, it does not really look like the Twins have room for one, much less two or three, relievers. If they can find one dependable veteran who can bridge the 8th inning that doesn't cost and arm and leg in prospects or salary then they should make a move. But they are not really desperate for more options in the bullpen. What they really need is less work.
Saturday, July 05, 2008
The Decline of Baseball America
This gem from Jim Callis over at Baseball America shows just how far that venerable publication has fallen:
"I wonder if the Twins regret their decision to trade Johan Santana to the Mets. The difference between Santana and waste of $5 million Livan Hernandez is probably the difference between first and second place in the very winnable American League Central right now. None of the four players Minnesota received in return was a sure thing, and the two high-risk/high-reward prospects (Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra) and the two potential No. 4 starters (Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey) have done nothing to enhance their status since the deal.
But what is more ridiculous is the idea that they would have been as well off with a couple draft choices. That is the kind of silly observation you expect from young bloggers, not professional writers for Baseball America. There was a time when Baseball America put the draft into perspective, but apparently their writers area now just feeding on (or feeding) the hype. Most players taken as compensation picks never even appear in the major leagues. And a number of those that do never amount to much. The Twins have already got more from Gomez than they could expect from the draft choices. I have not heard any Twins fans regretting this trade. Gomez, while showing his inexperience, has been an exciting player and fan favorite. Certainly the Twins would be a better team with Santana, especially while Denard Span was stuck at AAA, but that is obvious. And it may be that at the end of the season they will look back and say "if only we had kept Santana", but that is long way off. Second guessing that decision at mid-season is foolish.
"I wonder if the Twins regret their decision to trade Johan Santana to the Mets. The difference between Santana and waste of $5 million Livan Hernandez is probably the difference between first and second place in the very winnable American League Central right now. None of the four players Minnesota received in return was a sure thing, and the two high-risk/high-reward prospects (Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra) and the two potential No. 4 starters (Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey) have done nothing to enhance their status since the deal.
The Twins would have been better off taking their chances trying to win with Santana this season, even if that meant taking two high draft picks in return when he walked as a free agent. In fairness, I'll admit I didn't envision that the Tigers and Indians could struggle as much as they have"
The Twins "right now" are 12-5 with "waste of $5 million Livan Hernandez" on the mound, including two of the wins in their recent streak. The Mets are 9-7 with Santana on the mound. Of course Santana is the better pitcher, but the Twins scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 of Hernandez losses. It is tough to see how the Twins would have improved from the results they got from Hernandez.But what is more ridiculous is the idea that they would have been as well off with a couple draft choices. That is the kind of silly observation you expect from young bloggers, not professional writers for Baseball America. There was a time when Baseball America put the draft into perspective, but apparently their writers area now just feeding on (or feeding) the hype. Most players taken as compensation picks never even appear in the major leagues. And a number of those that do never amount to much. The Twins have already got more from Gomez than they could expect from the draft choices. I have not heard any Twins fans regretting this trade. Gomez, while showing his inexperience, has been an exciting player and fan favorite. Certainly the Twins would be a better team with Santana, especially while Denard Span was stuck at AAA, but that is obvious. And it may be that at the end of the season they will look back and say "if only we had kept Santana", but that is long way off. Second guessing that decision at mid-season is foolish.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Whole New Team
The current Twins team has almost no relationship to last year's team. Of the 8 everyday players, only three players are back from last year. Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer will be the recognizable faces when the Twins take the field opening day. None of the other players will have played a single game in a Twins uniform before. Harris, Everett, Lamb, Young and Gomez are all new to the franchise. Kubel may add one more Twins "veteran" to the batting order as DH, unless Monroe grabs the opening day spot.
Pitching will be little different. Hernandez, the opening day starter, is new to the organization. Liriano didn't pitch at all last year and the other starters, Baker, Bonser and Slowey, combined for only 64 of the team's 162 starts. So while not as great as the turnover on the field, the pitching staff has little resemblance to last year's.
What this means in practical terms is that this is an entirely new team and last year's record is irrelevant. How good a team is an open question that you can try to answer looking player by player. But good teams are more than the sum of their parts. Players over time learn how to make use of their teammates skills to best effect.
Gomez speed brings a new dimension to the offense that the "veteran" Twins have not really seen on their team before. But that may not be true of players like Young, Monroe or Everett for whom everything is new. Young adds a second right hand bat may make some Twins less vulnerable to lefties. Moving Cuddyer between Mauer and Morneau will give him opportunities to see a lot more lefties. But while those changes may benefit those three players, we don't really know what impact they may have on Young, Lamb, Harris etc.
It will be interesting to watch how the Twins style of play adjusts to the skills of the new players. Not only on offense, but also in the field. The statement "we put it in play and let our fielders do their job" has become a cliche of the Twins pitching staff. As I expressed yesterday, its not so clear that approach makes sense when you second baseman is Brendan Harris and your third baseman is Mike Lamb. That is something we will all find out as the year progresses.
Pitching will be little different. Hernandez, the opening day starter, is new to the organization. Liriano didn't pitch at all last year and the other starters, Baker, Bonser and Slowey, combined for only 64 of the team's 162 starts. So while not as great as the turnover on the field, the pitching staff has little resemblance to last year's.
What this means in practical terms is that this is an entirely new team and last year's record is irrelevant. How good a team is an open question that you can try to answer looking player by player. But good teams are more than the sum of their parts. Players over time learn how to make use of their teammates skills to best effect.
Gomez speed brings a new dimension to the offense that the "veteran" Twins have not really seen on their team before. But that may not be true of players like Young, Monroe or Everett for whom everything is new. Young adds a second right hand bat may make some Twins less vulnerable to lefties. Moving Cuddyer between Mauer and Morneau will give him opportunities to see a lot more lefties. But while those changes may benefit those three players, we don't really know what impact they may have on Young, Lamb, Harris etc.
It will be interesting to watch how the Twins style of play adjusts to the skills of the new players. Not only on offense, but also in the field. The statement "we put it in play and let our fielders do their job" has become a cliche of the Twins pitching staff. As I expressed yesterday, its not so clear that approach makes sense when you second baseman is Brendan Harris and your third baseman is Mike Lamb. That is something we will all find out as the year progresses.
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