Immediate Prospects - Next Year's Twins ROY

Looking at the Nick Blackburn controversy raises an interesting question. Who are the top ten prospects to provide the Twins immediate help next year. Blackburn would have been near the top of that list last year, even if he was nowhere near the top prospect in the Twins system. So lets look at next year based on three criteria: How close is a player to being ready to help. What is the player's upside next year. Opportunity will also need to be a factor, but the fact that a player looks blocked wouldn't eliminate them from the list since injuries happen. Not being considered are players like Drew Butera who are only likely to get a September callup.

Here is the list of potential "Nick Blackburns" next year ranked in the order of how likely they are to be the Twins' rookie of the year:

1. Jose Mijares - Some folks have already handed him a spot in the bullpen. That may be too enthusiastic, but he clearly has a good shot.
   
2. Phil Humber - He's out of options. He is almost certain to make the roster and he is probably ready to contribute.
   
3. Randy Ruiz - right handed bat off the bench
   
4. Jose Morales - If he fully recovers and can catch, he is probably the first choice if one of the catchers go down.
   
5. Bobby Korecky - Good shot  at filling out the bullpen at some point if there is an opening
   
6. Jason Pridie - Blocked, but ready to contribute if the opportunity presents itself.
   
7. Mathew Macri - Backup infielder and right handed bat
   
8. Alejandro Machado - His chances depend on his arm. If he fully recovers he has a shot at the shortstop position if the Twins don't fill it.
   
9. Trevor Plouffe - Like Machado, his chances depend on who the Twins sign to play shortstop. By mid-season, Plouffe will probably be ready to step up to the major leagues.
   
10. Kevin Mulvey - Potential bullpen help or starter
    

Others who merit consideration;
Brian Duensing - Potential bullpen help or starter
Tim Lahey - Potential bullpen help similar to Korecky, but not on roster
Armando Gabino - Potential bullpen help, on the roster but probably not ready until mid-season
Anthony Swarzak - Potential starter who could be ready by mid-season
Zachary Ward - Potential bullpen help who could be ready by mid-season
Ryan Mullins - lefty out of the bullpen, he will need to break out to be ready by mid-season

There are also a few players in the lower minors who could  break out. Steve Tolleson's performance in the AFL indicated his bat was ready, but his glove still needs work. Likewise Jeff Manship could develop quickly and fill a bullpen or rotation spot if one opens up.  Carlos Gutierrez is the guy who could break through from last year if he stays in the bullpen. But the Twins seemed determined to make him a starter and that will probably take more than a season.

Baseball America's Top Ten

Baseball America is about to release their top ten prospects for this year. Here is last year's list.

1. Nick Blackburn, rhp
2. Joe Benson, of
3. Wilson Ramos, c
4. Tyler Robertson, lhp
5. Anthony Swarzak, rhp
6. Ben Revere, of
7. Jason Pridie, of
8. Brian Duensing, lhp
9. Jeff Manship, rhp
10. Trevor Plouffe, ss

Last year, John Manual put Nick Blackburn at the top of the list and took a lot of flack for it. Despite his apparent belief that he was vindicated by Blackburn's presence in the Twins rotation, the choice of Blackburn may even look worse now than it did then. Unless Baseball America has changed its standards, top tens are a combination of both ceiling and how close players are to being ready. Blackburn was clearly close, the question was his ceiling. And last year didn't answer that question.

Even by the standard is "most likely to be the team's rookie of the year next year", Blackburn wasn't a winner. That award belonged to Denard Span, of whom  Manual had this to say
"first-round picks Denard Span (2002) and Matt Moses (2003) were supposed to be ready for big league jobs by now, yet are far from ready."
So who else should have been ahead of Blackburn? Pretty clearly Ben Revere. His 2008 season showed his draft position was not inappropriate and his 2007 year was not a fluke.

Trevor Plouffe is another guy who belonged ahead of Blackburn. He is at that stage where people are calling him a "slap hitter" because he isn't hitting a lot of home runs at age 22. They did the same thing with Torii Hunter at that same age. In fact, their power numbers in their first year at AA were pretty similar with Plouffe having a slight edge. While Hunter always projected to hit for power despite his numbers, Plouffe probably doesn't project to have Hunter's power. And, unlike Hunter, he probably isn't a gold glove. But if he can play shortstop, he is going to be well above average offensively.

I think Swarzak, Robertson and Ramos should have been ahead of Blackburn, although you can make the argument Blackburn, with some major league success, has now surpassed the two pitchers. Based on his brief stint this fall Jose Mijares was probably a step up on Blackburn as a prospect as well. But you can argue a relief pitchers, even a hard throwing left hander, is not as valuable as a starter. Chris Parmelee also belonged on the list, despite his struggles.

All of those players are more valuable than a back of the rotation starter. Manual had the idea Blackburn was more than that. And nothing he has done so far shows it.

Finally there was this little tidbit:

" Minnesota has had more success of late drafting and developing pitchers than hitters."

Last year's Twins included Cuddyer, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Span. The rotation had Baker, Slowey, Perkins and  Blackburn. And the bullpen had Crain. Which group of players would you take? What's more, every one of the pitchers was a college kid, while the everyday players were drafted out of high school.  And that is the actual distinction. The Twins have had quicker success of late from players drafted out of college. Not exactly worth remarking on.

There was a time when Baseball America's ranking pretty accurately reflected the views of professional baseball evaluators. That time, as Manual made clear, is past. They recently seem to have shifted their target audience to pseudo-sophisticated fans - sharing the same shallow, impatient  analysis as most of the other baseball media. Entertaining as Baseball America's top tens are, they don't really give us a very good idea of the real state of the Twins system. When a writer says things like "I rank this guy higher than the organization does",  you wonder what he is thinking or if he isn't and its just ego talking.

Twins Top Ten (11) Prospects

Here are eleven Twins prospects to watch out for. They are in no particular order, but simply the players I think are likely to contribute the most at the major league level at some point in the next 8 years. Why eleven? I started out to create a top ten but found no compelling reason to leave anyone off this list. I look out 8 years, because most players have reached their peak by the time they are 27. While talented young players sometimes get to the major leagues quickly, it also sometimes takes several more years before they show their full talent.

Ben Revere (OF)
The question with Revere is whether he will develop the power the Twins saw when they drafted him or have to rely on his running game. Either way, he will contribute at the major league level.

Angel Morales (OF)
When drafted, Morales was identified as a slap-hitter in some quarters. He clearly isn't.With his outstanding speed and power, this is a guy who could be as a superstar or a super bust. The question is whether he will make enough contact at higher levels to make use of either one.

Deolis Guerra (P)
Guerra was a touted part of the Santana deal but the Twins turned him into a project, working to improve his delivery. Given their track record of success with pitchers in the minor leagues, you have to expect they know what they are doing.

Wilson Ramos (C)
A power hitting catcher with a plus arm and defensive skills. You can't get much better than that.

Rene Tosoni (OF)
Tosoni was injured this year. But this is a guy who hits for both average and with enough power to take a corner outfield spot.

Tyler Robertson (P)
Robertson remains one of the Twins top young prospects. He may be a few years away but he has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter.

Anthony Swarzak (P)
Swarzak struggled some at AA but did better once promoted. He is probably still at least one full year away from the major leagues. Like Robertson, he has the stuff to take a spot toward the top of the rotation. He also has a curve ball that would work well out of the bullpen.

Trevor Plouffe (SS)
Plouffe is probably still a year away from taking over as the Twins shortstop. He does not look to have star potential, but he will be an above average hitter and more than adequate fielder.

Jose Mijares (P)
Mijares almost had a wasted season last year that he turned to his advantage. He recovered from an auto accident and then showed enough to get a late season callup. Better yet, he showed that he is probably ready to be a key part of a major league bullpen.

Phillip Humber (P)
Humber started out struggling at AAA. But he came back the last half of the season. He is out of options, so he is very likely going to on a major league roster next year. He has potential as a starter, but is blocked on the Twins. It may take him another year, but if he doesn't win a place in the rotation, he will likely end up an 8th inning guy.

Kevin Mulvey (P) Mulvey is younger than Humber and will likely get another year at AAA. He is probably a notch below Robertson and Swarzak in terms of his potential at the major league level. But he has all the tools to be a solid major league starter.

The Twins top three draft choices, Hicks, Gutierrez and Hunt have a shot at making this list next year but a half season after the draft doesn't really tell us anything. The Twins also have plenty of other talented players in their system who are not on this list. But most of those players have flaws that will need to be corrected as opposed to talent that they need to develop.

A good example is Allen de San Miguel. He is probably the best defensive catcher in the Twins system. But he has never been able to hit and he doesn't really project to ever being able to hit in the future. He still might figure it out, but its not just a matter of  giving him time to develop the talent he appears to have.

The players on the list above should contribute at the major league level. If they don't, it will be a result of not reaching their potential.

Twins Bullpen - 2009

There is a lot of angst about the Twins bullpen. It has now reached a point that one of the local Minnesota sports writers is suggesting the Twins should be dealing for "two or three" new relievers next year. That seems like a huge over-reaction to an overworked bullpen.

The reality is that the Twins relief corps has more appearances and faced more batters than it did last year. And last year it was not underworked either. In 2008, with six games remaining, the relievers have made 460 appearances and faced 2032 batters. In 2007, they made 438 appearances and faced 2001 batters. In 2006, it was 421 appearances and 2066 batters and in 2005 it was 396 appearances and 1841 batters. This year's bullpen will have made the most appearances of the Gardenhire era and it will come close or surpass the largest number of batters faced.

That is hardly a surprise. The Twins rotation has been filled with young pitchers who have rarely pitched deep into games. In fact, Slowey and Baker are the only current members of the rotation who have averaged over 6 innings per start, and then only barely. Even "innings eater" Livan Hernandez ended up with only slighty over 6 innings per start after all his early exits at the end of his stint with the Twins.

So where are things for next year? Its likely that, with a year's experience behind them, the young starters will give the Twins more innings and a rested bullpen will be more productive. Aside from that, the Twins also have a lot of possible young pitchers who could step up and make the bullpen that much stronger. Here is what the bullpen looks like for next year:

Returning:
Nathan
Guerrier
Crain
Breslow
Bonser
(Neshek)

Free Agents:
Reyes
Guardado

Prospects:
Humber
Mijares
Korecky

Guerrier, Crain and Bonser all have the experience and talent to be late inning setup guys. As does Neshek if he recovers. Mijares and Humber have the talent but they need experience. The rumor is that Humber is out of options, so they will have to find a place for him either in the bullpen or the rotation. My guess is that the Twins will try to resign Reyes. They might bring Guardado to spring training if he can't find anyone willing to give him a guaranteed contract.

In any case, it does not really look like the Twins have room for one, much less two or three, relievers. If they can find one dependable veteran who can bridge the 8th inning that doesn't cost and arm and leg in prospects or salary then they should make a move. But they are not really desperate for more options in the bullpen. What they really need is less work.