Immediate Prospects - Next Year's Twins ROY

Looking at the Nick Blackburn controversy raises an interesting question. Who are the top ten prospects to provide the Twins immediate help next year. Blackburn would have been near the top of that list last year, even if he was nowhere near the top prospect in the Twins system. So lets look at next year based on three criteria: How close is a player to being ready to help. What is the player's upside next year. Opportunity will also need to be a factor, but the fact that a player looks blocked wouldn't eliminate them from the list since injuries happen. Not being considered are players like Drew Butera who are only likely to get a September callup.

Here is the list of potential "Nick Blackburns" next year ranked in the order of how likely they are to be the Twins' rookie of the year:

1. Jose Mijares - Some folks have already handed him a spot in the bullpen. That may be too enthusiastic, but he clearly has a good shot.
   
2. Phil Humber - He's out of options. He is almost certain to make the roster and he is probably ready to contribute.
   
3. Randy Ruiz - right handed bat off the bench
   
4. Jose Morales - If he fully recovers and can catch, he is probably the first choice if one of the catchers go down.
   
5. Bobby Korecky - Good shot  at filling out the bullpen at some point if there is an opening
   
6. Jason Pridie - Blocked, but ready to contribute if the opportunity presents itself.
   
7. Mathew Macri - Backup infielder and right handed bat
   
8. Alejandro Machado - His chances depend on his arm. If he fully recovers he has a shot at the shortstop position if the Twins don't fill it.
   
9. Trevor Plouffe - Like Machado, his chances depend on who the Twins sign to play shortstop. By mid-season, Plouffe will probably be ready to step up to the major leagues.
   
10. Kevin Mulvey - Potential bullpen help or starter
    

Others who merit consideration;
Brian Duensing - Potential bullpen help or starter
Tim Lahey - Potential bullpen help similar to Korecky, but not on roster
Armando Gabino - Potential bullpen help, on the roster but probably not ready until mid-season
Anthony Swarzak - Potential starter who could be ready by mid-season
Zachary Ward - Potential bullpen help who could be ready by mid-season
Ryan Mullins - lefty out of the bullpen, he will need to break out to be ready by mid-season

There are also a few players in the lower minors who could  break out. Steve Tolleson's performance in the AFL indicated his bat was ready, but his glove still needs work. Likewise Jeff Manship could develop quickly and fill a bullpen or rotation spot if one opens up.  Carlos Gutierrez is the guy who could break through from last year if he stays in the bullpen. But the Twins seemed determined to make him a starter and that will probably take more than a season.

Comparing the offers

There are a lot of disappointed sports talk show fans out there as a result of the Santana trade. The question is - did the Twins take the best deal. Obviously, if high-profile prospects is the measure then no. But I don't think that is the measure.

All prospect evaluations face the same dilemma - ceiling versus certainty. When ranking a prospect's value how much weight do you put on their eventual potential as big leaguers and how much weight do you place on the likelihood they will ever reach that potential. Players who are certain major league players are no longer prospects. The jump from AAA to the big leagues is huge and even guys labeled "can't miss" sometimes do. So there is uncertainty with any prospect, but that doesn't mean the risk is the same.

The other part of that delemma is that the further a player is from the majors, the wider the range of his potential. What this means is that there are a lot more "potential hall-of-famers" in A ball than there are at AAA. As players move up the development ladder their real potential becomes a lot clearer.

The flip side of that, is that the more realized a player's potential, the more expensive he becomes in trade. Teams don't knowingly trade away the next Willie Mays. The Twins grabbed future stars like Liriano and Santana by recognizing their potential and then having them develop. You can say they got lucky. But the reality is that they recognized the potential. We tend to forget the players where that potential was recognized but never realized. Prospects are a numbers game. If you have enough of them, you will "get lucky" occasionally. But if you have prospects whose upside is mediocre major leaguer, even when you get lucky they won't really help you win any World Series..

So how did the rumored trades compare:

Yankees: Hughes, Cabrera, Tabata

Red Sox: Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterston

Red Sox: Lester, Crisp, Lowrie

Mets: Gomez, Humber, Mulvey, Guerra


Lets start with the center fielders: Gomez, Cabrera, Crisp and Ellsbury.

Cabrera, Crisp and Ellsbury are all clearly more major league ready than Gomez. Cabrera and Crisp would be placeholders in center field for the Twins. Good players, but ones that would not really be the core of a championship team and would likely get shoved aside at some point the way Crisp already has been by Ellsbury in Boston. Of the two prospects, Ellsbury is clearly furthest along but he doesn't have Gomez speed, arm or defense. Nor does it look like he has Gomez power potential. What he does have is a much more advanced approach at the plate. He is also two years older than Gomez.


Hughes, Lester, Humber, Masterson, Mulvey

Hughes is clearly the top dog here. A potential ace and likely number two starter, he was the centerpiece of the Yankees offer. Lester is also a top pitching prospect who is close to being ready in the big leagues. The other pitchers included in the trades are all mid-range prospects with varying pedigrees. Humber, who was the third player taken in the 2004 draft, is probably the most intriguing since he is coming back from Tommy John surgery. If he fully recovers and shows the stuff that made him a high draft choice he could equal Hughes or Lester. Mulvey and Masterson appear to be mid-rotation option. Part of the numbers game for Twins rotation spots that includes a lot of other Twins prospects who are close to the majors.

Lowrie -
None of the other deals really had anyone comparable to Lowrie. And that may be just as well. The reports are that he isn't an everyday shortstop, he may not be a second baseman either and his bat may not be enough to make him a third baseman. But it is that bat, and his potential for versatility, that makes him valuable. Lowrie is the sort of player that could be valuable to a team like the Twins that often seems to need a guy to hold down a spot until a better prospect is ready. And is a solid bat on the bench the rest of the time.

Guerra - Guerra is a high-upside, big risk young pitching prospect. He could be the next Francisco Liriano, he could be the next Scott Tyler. The odds, as always with A-ball pitching prospects, are better for the latter. But Guerra's upside makes him the sort of player that can make a good trade great. The deals with the Red Sox and Yankees do not seem to include this kind of raw talent.

There is a lot of speculation about what deals were really still on the table when the Twins reached their agreement with the Mets. But I think if you look at the players they got, this trade is a classic Twins deal. Heavy on potential rather than immediate help. And for a small market team that is really the only way you win championships. You don't do it by letting other teams do your player development. You have to stockpile guys who have talent and then develop it.

Santana Deal

So the Twins finally pulled the trigger. Like most deals the Twins make, fans listening to the talk shows will be outraged at the failure to get more. When Frank Viola was traded, David West was supposed to be the center of the trade. But the real quality players were Rick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani. When Knoblauch was dealt, there were fans who couldn't believe the Twins failed to get the Yankees "top prospect", Rick Ledee. Rick Ledee? And there was outrage that A. J. Pierzynski only netted a reliever and a couple prospects (Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser respectively).

We won't know for a few years whether this deal worked out for the Twins. None of the players they get are likely to be better than Santana while they play for the Twins. Whereas arguably each of those other deals actually brought back players as good or better than the player who was given up. But the reality is the Twins can't afford the risk of signing Santana to a huge contract for six years. The Mets can.

So who are these guys and why should we be excited:

Carlos Gomez - An extremely speedy outfielder who was playing in the major leagues last year at age 20. Sometimes those players fail. But usually a guy who can hold his own as a major leaguer at that age will get better and better. He has been described as a five tool player who is already an above average center fielder defensively and will develop some power. A little like a young Torii Hunter, though probably not quite in that league defensively. The Twins now have three young outfielders who are candidates for center field Gomez, Pridie and Span. Its likely at least one of them will develop into an above average major league center fielder. Gomez is probably the most likely contender to do that this year.

Philip Humber - Humber was a number one draft pick (third overall) in the 2004 draft. Last year was his first full season since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Its hard to know what the Twins got here. The news reports about the trade talk about him as a back of the rotation starter, but the scouting reports and his draft position would indicate he is a lot more than that if healthy. I look for him to take a spot in the rotation out of spring training. I think he has the best shot at having an immediate impact.

Kevin Mulvey - Mulvey was the Mets first choice in the 2006 draft. He was the 62nd player taken, in the second round. He is the typical college draftee at that position. His upside is a solid back of the rotation starter who will give you a lot of innings. That assumes that he has major league command of his pitches. He is probably pretty similar to Kevin Slowey, albeit a year behind him in development.

Deolis Guerra - This is clearly the guy with the highest upside. A 6'5" pitcher with great stuff but a long way from the major leagues. Lets hope it is fun to watch him develop. It could just as easily be painful to watch him fail.

This deal looks like it lacks a "can't miss" player. But then even the "can't miss" guys sometimes do, so having several chances is probably more important. Gomez, Humber and Guerra all look like players who have the possibility to develop into core players of a championship team. But, whatever you make of this trade, it looks like the Twins would have been a better team with Santana. This is taking what the market has to offer rather than rolling the dice on winning this year.

Now the question is what can they get for Joe Nathan. Because without Santana, Hunter and Silva this team is going to have to get some real breakthroughs to be competitive. Nathan is not going to make much difference.