Baseball America is about to release their top ten prospects for this year. Here is last year's list.
1. Nick Blackburn, rhp
2. Joe Benson, of
3. Wilson Ramos, c
4. Tyler Robertson, lhp
5. Anthony Swarzak, rhp
6. Ben Revere, of
7. Jason Pridie, of
8. Brian Duensing, lhp
9. Jeff Manship, rhp
10. Trevor Plouffe, ss
Last year, John Manual put Nick Blackburn at the top of the list and took a lot of flack for it. Despite his apparent belief that he was vindicated by Blackburn's presence in the Twins rotation, the choice of Blackburn may even look worse now than it did then. Unless Baseball America has changed its standards, top tens are a combination of both ceiling and how close players are to being ready. Blackburn was clearly close, the question was his ceiling. And last year didn't answer that question.
Even by the standard is "most likely to be the team's rookie of the year next year", Blackburn wasn't a winner. That award belonged to Denard Span, of whom Manual had this to say
"first-round picks Denard Span (2002) and Matt Moses (2003) were supposed to be ready for big league jobs by now, yet are far from ready."
So who else should have been ahead of Blackburn? Pretty clearly Ben Revere. His 2008 season showed his draft position was not inappropriate and his 2007 year was not a fluke.
Trevor Plouffe is another guy who belonged ahead of Blackburn. He is at that stage where people are calling him a "slap hitter" because he isn't hitting a lot of home runs at age 22. They did the same thing with Torii Hunter at that same age. In fact, their power numbers in their first year at AA were pretty similar with Plouffe having a slight edge. While Hunter always projected to hit for power despite his numbers, Plouffe probably doesn't project to have Hunter's power. And, unlike Hunter, he probably isn't a gold glove. But if he can play shortstop, he is going to be well above average offensively.
I think Swarzak, Robertson and Ramos should have been ahead of Blackburn, although you can make the argument Blackburn, with some major league success, has now surpassed the two pitchers. Based on his brief stint this fall Jose Mijares was probably a step up on Blackburn as a prospect as well. But you can argue a relief pitchers, even a hard throwing left hander, is not as valuable as a starter. Chris Parmelee also belonged on the list, despite his struggles.
All of those players are more valuable than a back of the rotation starter. Manual had the idea Blackburn was more than that. And nothing he has done so far shows it.
Finally there was this little tidbit:
" Minnesota has had more success of late drafting and developing pitchers than hitters."
Last year's Twins included Cuddyer, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Span. The rotation had Baker, Slowey, Perkins and Blackburn. And the bullpen had Crain. Which group of players would you take? What's more, every one of the pitchers was a college kid, while the everyday players were drafted out of high school. And that is the actual distinction. The Twins have had quicker success of late from players drafted out of college. Not exactly worth remarking on.
There was a time when Baseball America's ranking pretty accurately reflected the views of professional baseball evaluators. That time, as Manual made clear, is past. They recently seem to have shifted their target audience to pseudo-sophisticated fans - sharing the same shallow, impatient analysis as most of the other baseball media. Entertaining as Baseball America's top tens are, they don't really give us a very good idea of the real state of the Twins system. When a writer says things like "I rank this guy higher than the organization does", you wonder what he is thinking or if he isn't and its just ego talking.
Showing posts with label Baseball America. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baseball America. Show all posts
Monday, November 24, 2008
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Twins Top 10 - 1999 Retrospective
I did a retrospective last year of the Twins Top 10 for 1998. I want to do the same thing for 1999. Again I am going to look beyond prospect lists at the time to the players who played in the Twins minor leagues in 1998 and later contributed at the major league level. Here is that list:
GCL (Rookie)
Tommy Watkins IF (18)
Luis Rodriguez IF (18)
E-Twins (Rookie)
Michael Restovich OF (19)
Grant Balfour P (20)
Kevin Frederick P (21)
Saul Rivera P (20)
Fort Wayne (Low-A)
Michael Cuddyer IF (19)
Matt LeCroy C (22)
Michael Ryan IF (20)
Juan Rincon (19)
Brad Thomas (20)
Fort Myers (High-A)
Luis Rivas IF (18)
Cleatus Davidson IF (21)
Matt LeCroy C (22)
Matt Kinney P (21)
New Britain (AA)
Cristian Guzman IF (20)
Jacque Jones OF (23)
Chad Allen OF (23)
Doug Mientkiewicz 1B (24)
Torii Hunter OF (22)
Chad Moeller C (23)
John Barnes OF (22)
Mike Lincoln P (23)
JC Romero P (22)
Joe Mays P (22)
Salt Lake City (AAA)
Corey Koskie IF (25)
Brian Buchanan OF (24)
AJ Pierzinsky C (21)
Benj Sampson P (23)
Mark Redman P (24)
Todd RItchie P (26)
Travis Miller P (25)
Based on their actual performances in the major leagues, here is a list of the Twins top ten future major league players after the 2008 season:
Torii Hunter
AJ Pierzynski
Jacque Jones
Cristian Guzman
Michael Cuddyer
Corey Koskie
Juan Rincon
Doug Mientkiewicz
Mark Redman
Luis Rivas
The other candidates to be on that list would be Joe Mays, Todd Ritchie, JC Romero and Matt LeCroy. Compared to the 1997 list, only David Ortiz had graduated to the majors. Guzman came over in the Knoblauch trade and replaced him on the list. It says something about the 1998 draft that not one player made the list. Saul Rivera is really the only player the Twins took in that draft that has had more than a brief stint in the major leagues.
So how does the actual outcome compare to the evaluations at the time?
Baseball America's Top Ten for 1998-99
Misses: Restovich, LeCroy, Mills, Lincoln
GCL (Rookie)
Tommy Watkins IF (18)
Luis Rodriguez IF (18)
E-Twins (Rookie)
Michael Restovich OF (19)
Grant Balfour P (20)
Kevin Frederick P (21)
Saul Rivera P (20)
Fort Wayne (Low-A)
Michael Cuddyer IF (19)
Matt LeCroy C (22)
Michael Ryan IF (20)
Juan Rincon (19)
Brad Thomas (20)
Fort Myers (High-A)
Luis Rivas IF (18)
Cleatus Davidson IF (21)
Matt LeCroy C (22)
Matt Kinney P (21)
New Britain (AA)
Cristian Guzman IF (20)
Jacque Jones OF (23)
Chad Allen OF (23)
Doug Mientkiewicz 1B (24)
Torii Hunter OF (22)
Chad Moeller C (23)
John Barnes OF (22)
Mike Lincoln P (23)
JC Romero P (22)
Joe Mays P (22)
Salt Lake City (AAA)
Corey Koskie IF (25)
Brian Buchanan OF (24)
AJ Pierzinsky C (21)
Benj Sampson P (23)
Mark Redman P (24)
Todd RItchie P (26)
Travis Miller P (25)
Based on their actual performances in the major leagues, here is a list of the Twins top ten future major league players after the 2008 season:
Torii Hunter
AJ Pierzynski
Jacque Jones
Cristian Guzman
Michael Cuddyer
Corey Koskie
Juan Rincon
Doug Mientkiewicz
Mark Redman
Luis Rivas
The other candidates to be on that list would be Joe Mays, Todd Ritchie, JC Romero and Matt LeCroy. Compared to the 1997 list, only David Ortiz had graduated to the majors. Guzman came over in the Knoblauch trade and replaced him on the list. It says something about the 1998 draft that not one player made the list. Saul Rivera is really the only player the Twins took in that draft that has had more than a brief stint in the major leagues.
So how does the actual outcome compare to the evaluations at the time?
Baseball America's Top Ten for 1998-99
- Michael Cuddyer, 3b
- Mike Restovich, of
- Cristian Guzman, ss
- Luis Rivas, ss
- Matt LeCroy, c
- Ryan Mills, lhp
- Jacque Jones, of
- Doug Mientkiewicz, 1b
- Corey Koskie, 3b
- Mike Lincoln, rhp
Misses: Restovich, LeCroy, Mills, Lincoln
Saturday, November 01, 2008
What's a Top Ten Prospect
Originally published February 2008
This is the time of year when all the prospect guru's start publishing their top ten prospects.
Baseball America (BBA) is probably the most well-respected of these lists. Its one of the few publications that really goes out and gets new, independent information about every team's players. Their writers talk to scouts and baseball developement staff to identify the best prospects. That said, the lists also reflect the judgments of the particular BBA staff.
John Sickels is another source of indpendent judgments. He does a lot of research to publish his book of prospects every year. Unlike BBA writers, who are constantly on deadline to produce articles for the magazine, Sickels actually has time to do "scouting trips" to watch prospects and make his own judgements. Of course, as a one guy show, he has doesn't have the resources to see everyone. And he is not a professional scout. So he may give too much weight to his own opinions and players he has seen personally and less weight to the opinions of those who get paid to identify the best players before its obvious to everyone.
Beyond those two, most of the other lists are rehashes of one another with a particular writer's biases about what is valuable. The SABR guys will add a stats overlay, people who are convinced pitching is important will emphasize pitching, people who think hitting is most important will grab people identified as the best hitters, etc. But most of these lists are based on reading BBA, Sickels and the blogsphere. They may or may not reflect the opinion of most scouts. In fact, in an effort to be interesting, they often have a bias toward having a semi-contrarian opinion.
Occasionally, they go beyond condensing others information and stray into outright plagiarism. One prominent Twin's blogger's list a few years ago was clearly just a rewrite of BBA's. He changed the order some and then rewrote the descriptions like a kid rewriting an encyclopedia entry for his school report.
There are also some local bloggers who take the time to talk to their local team's scouts and player development personell. They develop their own top ten lists for their favorite team. Those lists reflect a lot of input. While their judgments of prominent prospects may not be as well-informed as the national list makers, they often do a better job on players who are less prominent. If you are looking for hidden gems, these lists will often have them first.
Unfortunately, there are also lists that are based on little more than looking at the local leader boards for the minor leagues. Usually these stat-based lists are obvious, including players who are over-age for their league or harshly judging highly touted young prospects who have been less than successful while playing at a high level at an early age. These are the folks that projected Torii Hunter as a "slap hitter" while he was in the minor leagues because his power had yet to show itself.
The larger issue for every prospect list is that what makes a player a "top prospect" is often a moving target. Baseball America says its lists are based on a balance between a prospect's ceiling and how likely they are to reach it. So what you have is a subjective balance between two subjective evaluations. In short, these top ten lists are almost all art and no science. The result is that, while top ten lists are fun, they need to be taken with a very large grain of salt.
Last week I looked back on Baseball America's top ten from ten years ago. The conclusion was that the order of the top ten was not very informative. Having followed BBA's lists for the last 20 years, that was not a surprise to me. While identifying that a player has major league potential is fairly easy, distinguishing how much of that potential each prospect will achieve isn't.
That doesn't mean there aren't players who stand out. There are. And most of those players go on to have great careers. But beyond a handful of truly special players with polished skills, the difference between number one and number 10 on most prospect lists is not very meaningful in the long run. It is likely that even a team's "top prospect" will not end up its best player.
The other thing to remember is that none of these list builders get paid to be right. If they are paid at all, its to be entertaining. And when they miss, they can quickly excuse their failure by pointing to the reality I just described that everyone misses. But major league scouts do get paid to be right. They don't have a job when they consistently under perform their peers. So when John Manuel at Baseball America makes Nick Blackburn the Twins number one prospect, and then admits he has him rated higher than the Twins, you have to wonder what he is thinking. If the team that has developed a player for five years isn't convinced, why should anyone else be?
That is one of the traps BBA falls into a lot. Over the years their lists are peppered with players who had one good season. When a player leaps from career minor leaguer to top ten prospect in one season, take it with a grain of salt. Player's tools don't usually develop that way. While they do have breakouts, it is not usually totally un-foreseen. They are players who have always had the potential and finally realize it.
An example from the BBA list ten years ago would be Chad Allen who is listed as the Twins 4th best prospect. Allen had a major league career, so you wouldn't call him a complete bust. But he was never in the same class as Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, Corey Koskie or even Matt LeCroy, no matter where he appeared on the BBA top ten prospect list. My guess is Nick Blackburn ends up a similar case of overreaching.
On the other end of the spectrum is last year's draft choices. It is a rare player who changes his potential in the course of the summer after he has been drafted. With good reason, BBA usually lists the top draft choice from the previous draft in its top ten. It doesn't mean much about the player, but it tells you something about the strength of the rest of the list. If a player taken number 20 in the draft is immediately the team's best prospect, you know their farm system is not very strong. If the top ten includes a bunch of supplemental first round draft choices from the most recent draft, that is a clue that there wasn't a lot of competition for the list. Of course, it may be a player is better than his draft position. But that isn't usually something you find out over the course of their first summer.
So the basics of looking at prospect lists.
1) There really isn't much difference between number one and number ten on a list
2) Watch out for breakouts, don't pay much attention to recent drafts
3) Be very careful of being fooled by derivative lists and stat-based lists that appear on the internet. If a list doesn't reflect conversations with baseball development staff, it probably doesn't have much meaning.
Finally there is the recent trend of top 30 lists. To be blunt, these are little more than a laundry list of all a team's prospects. The rankings are pretty much meaningless and the difference between the bottom ten and the next 20 prospects won't mean much a year from now.
So as you hear about how the Twins didn't get the Mets "top prospect" for Santana, the appropriate response is really "so what". They got four of the Mets top ten and all four of them could turn out to be better than the guy at the top of the list.
John Sickels 2008-2009
Seth Speaks 2008-2009
Twinkie Town 2008-2009
Baseball America's Twins Top Ten 2007-2008
Josh's Top 50 Twins 2007-2008
Baseball America 2006-2007
Baseball America 2005-2006
This is the time of year when all the prospect guru's start publishing their top ten prospects.
Baseball America (BBA) is probably the most well-respected of these lists. Its one of the few publications that really goes out and gets new, independent information about every team's players. Their writers talk to scouts and baseball developement staff to identify the best prospects. That said, the lists also reflect the judgments of the particular BBA staff.
John Sickels is another source of indpendent judgments. He does a lot of research to publish his book of prospects every year. Unlike BBA writers, who are constantly on deadline to produce articles for the magazine, Sickels actually has time to do "scouting trips" to watch prospects and make his own judgements. Of course, as a one guy show, he has doesn't have the resources to see everyone. And he is not a professional scout. So he may give too much weight to his own opinions and players he has seen personally and less weight to the opinions of those who get paid to identify the best players before its obvious to everyone.
Beyond those two, most of the other lists are rehashes of one another with a particular writer's biases about what is valuable. The SABR guys will add a stats overlay, people who are convinced pitching is important will emphasize pitching, people who think hitting is most important will grab people identified as the best hitters, etc. But most of these lists are based on reading BBA, Sickels and the blogsphere. They may or may not reflect the opinion of most scouts. In fact, in an effort to be interesting, they often have a bias toward having a semi-contrarian opinion.
Occasionally, they go beyond condensing others information and stray into outright plagiarism. One prominent Twin's blogger's list a few years ago was clearly just a rewrite of BBA's. He changed the order some and then rewrote the descriptions like a kid rewriting an encyclopedia entry for his school report.
There are also some local bloggers who take the time to talk to their local team's scouts and player development personell. They develop their own top ten lists for their favorite team. Those lists reflect a lot of input. While their judgments of prominent prospects may not be as well-informed as the national list makers, they often do a better job on players who are less prominent. If you are looking for hidden gems, these lists will often have them first.
Unfortunately, there are also lists that are based on little more than looking at the local leader boards for the minor leagues. Usually these stat-based lists are obvious, including players who are over-age for their league or harshly judging highly touted young prospects who have been less than successful while playing at a high level at an early age. These are the folks that projected Torii Hunter as a "slap hitter" while he was in the minor leagues because his power had yet to show itself.
The larger issue for every prospect list is that what makes a player a "top prospect" is often a moving target. Baseball America says its lists are based on a balance between a prospect's ceiling and how likely they are to reach it. So what you have is a subjective balance between two subjective evaluations. In short, these top ten lists are almost all art and no science. The result is that, while top ten lists are fun, they need to be taken with a very large grain of salt.
Last week I looked back on Baseball America's top ten from ten years ago. The conclusion was that the order of the top ten was not very informative. Having followed BBA's lists for the last 20 years, that was not a surprise to me. While identifying that a player has major league potential is fairly easy, distinguishing how much of that potential each prospect will achieve isn't.
That doesn't mean there aren't players who stand out. There are. And most of those players go on to have great careers. But beyond a handful of truly special players with polished skills, the difference between number one and number 10 on most prospect lists is not very meaningful in the long run. It is likely that even a team's "top prospect" will not end up its best player.
The other thing to remember is that none of these list builders get paid to be right. If they are paid at all, its to be entertaining. And when they miss, they can quickly excuse their failure by pointing to the reality I just described that everyone misses. But major league scouts do get paid to be right. They don't have a job when they consistently under perform their peers. So when John Manuel at Baseball America makes Nick Blackburn the Twins number one prospect, and then admits he has him rated higher than the Twins, you have to wonder what he is thinking. If the team that has developed a player for five years isn't convinced, why should anyone else be?
That is one of the traps BBA falls into a lot. Over the years their lists are peppered with players who had one good season. When a player leaps from career minor leaguer to top ten prospect in one season, take it with a grain of salt. Player's tools don't usually develop that way. While they do have breakouts, it is not usually totally un-foreseen. They are players who have always had the potential and finally realize it.
An example from the BBA list ten years ago would be Chad Allen who is listed as the Twins 4th best prospect. Allen had a major league career, so you wouldn't call him a complete bust. But he was never in the same class as Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, Corey Koskie or even Matt LeCroy, no matter where he appeared on the BBA top ten prospect list. My guess is Nick Blackburn ends up a similar case of overreaching.
On the other end of the spectrum is last year's draft choices. It is a rare player who changes his potential in the course of the summer after he has been drafted. With good reason, BBA usually lists the top draft choice from the previous draft in its top ten. It doesn't mean much about the player, but it tells you something about the strength of the rest of the list. If a player taken number 20 in the draft is immediately the team's best prospect, you know their farm system is not very strong. If the top ten includes a bunch of supplemental first round draft choices from the most recent draft, that is a clue that there wasn't a lot of competition for the list. Of course, it may be a player is better than his draft position. But that isn't usually something you find out over the course of their first summer.
So the basics of looking at prospect lists.
1) There really isn't much difference between number one and number ten on a list
2) Watch out for breakouts, don't pay much attention to recent drafts
3) Be very careful of being fooled by derivative lists and stat-based lists that appear on the internet. If a list doesn't reflect conversations with baseball development staff, it probably doesn't have much meaning.
Finally there is the recent trend of top 30 lists. To be blunt, these are little more than a laundry list of all a team's prospects. The rankings are pretty much meaningless and the difference between the bottom ten and the next 20 prospects won't mean much a year from now.
So as you hear about how the Twins didn't get the Mets "top prospect" for Santana, the appropriate response is really "so what". They got four of the Mets top ten and all four of them could turn out to be better than the guy at the top of the list.
John Sickels 2008-2009
Seth Speaks 2008-2009
Twinkie Town 2008-2009
Baseball America's Twins Top Ten 2007-2008
Josh's Top 50 Twins 2007-2008
Baseball America 2006-2007
Baseball America 2005-2006
Monday, March 03, 2008
Looking Back at Top 100's
Below is the 1998 BBA Top 100. I am going back ten years because it takes that long before you know who really turned out and who didn't. I am not going to go through the entire list - but that guy at the top stands out. Ben Grieve - the best prospect in baseball? What were they thinking?
And the answer is that they were thinking quite clearly. The reality is there is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to baseball prospects. As I have written before, the major leagues play a different game than the minor leagues. And sometimes the flaws don't show up immediately even at the major league level. Grieve was noted for his "patience". Unfortunately for him, major league pitchers throw a lot more strikes and Grieve didn't get good results when swinging at them.
For Twins fans remembering that Sidney Ponson, Ray Ortiz and Dennis Reyes were all once top prospects may make them a lot more patient with the Twins farm system's productivity. You can add Darnell McDonald to that list of curious acquisitions. Or Enrique Wilson, who some Twins fans mourned the loss of for years after he was traded away. And lets not forget how much heat the Twins took from some fans when they failed to get Rickey Ledee in the Knoblauch deal. Or that having lost Travis Lee in the draft looked like a real disaster in 1998, not so much in 2008.
You might want to notice some players who were missing from this list. Torii Hunter for instance. But I am not going to try to go back and create that list because it would be almost as long as the one below. The reality is that while top 100 lists are fun for fans and writers, they should not be mistaken for the scouting lists that every team maintains. Most of the best players will make the list eventually, even if it is just before they win a major league job. But the fact that a player is or isn't on it one year doesn't guarantee anything.
And that is important for Twins fans to remember this year when only three Twins prospects made the list, two of them just acquired in the Santana trade. The Twins have a lot of depth in their system. And that depth will likely produce more major league players than having a handful more players on this years Top 100.
1. Ben Grieve, of, Athletics
2. Paul Konerko, 1b/3b, Dodgers
3. Adrian Beltre, 3b, Dodgers
4. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3b, Pirates
6. Matt White, rhp, Devil Rays
7. Kris Benson, rhp, Pirates
8. Travis Lee, 1b, Diamondbacks
9. Carl Pavano, rhp, Expos
10. Miguel Tejada, ss, Athletics
11. Todd Helton, 1b, Rockies
12. Mark Kotsay, of, Marlins
13. Chad Hermansen, 2b, Pirates
14. Brad Fullmer, 1b, Expos
15. Juan Encarnacion, of, Tigers
16. Matt Clement, rhp, Padres
17. Ruben Mateo, of, Rangers
18. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
19. Richard Hidalgo, of, Astros
20. Sean Casey, 1b, Indians
21. Darnell McDonald, of, Orioles
22. Brian Rose, rhp, Red Sox
23. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners
24. Matt Anderson, rhp, Tigers
25. Eric Milton, lhp, Twins
26. Russell Branyan, 3b, Indians
27. Bruce Chen, lhp, Braves
28. Scott Elarton, rhp, Astros
29. Grant Roberts, rhp, Mets
30. Eric Chavez, 3b, Athletics
31. Cesar King, c, Rangers
32. Dermal Brown, of, Royals
33. Eli Marrero, c, Cardinals
34. Mike Caruso, ss, White Sox
35. Ryan Minor, 3b, Orioles
36. Troy Glaus, 3b, Angels
37. Rolando Arrojo, rhp, Devil Rays
38. Roy Halladay, rhp, Blue Jays
39. Braden Looper, rhp, Cardinals
40. Ruben Rivera, of, Padres
41. Francisco Cordero, rhp, Tigers
42. A. J. Hinch, c, Athletics
43. Carlos Lee, 3b, White Sox
44. Luis Rivera, rhp, Braves
45. John Patterson, rhp, Diamondbacks
46. Ricky Ledee, of, Yankees
47. Derrek Lee, 1b, Marlins
48. Alex Gonzalez, ss, Marlins
49. Ben Davis, c, Padres
50. Willie Martinez, rhp, Indians
51. Michael Coleman, of, Red Sox
52. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
53. Ben Petrick, c, Rockies
54. Jason Grilli, rhp, Giants
55. Luis Rivas, ss, Twins
56. Magglio Ordonez, of, White Sox
57. Julio Ramirez, of, Marlins
58. Ryan Brannan, rhp, Phillies
59. Mike Judd, rhp, Dodgers
60. Ed Yarnall, lhp, Mets
61. Enrique Wilson, 2b, Indians
62. Damian Jackson, ss, Reds
63. Corey Lee, lhp, Rangers
64. Lance Berkman, of, Astros
65. Abraham Nunez, ss, Pirates
66. Joe Fontenot, rhp, Marlins
67. Shawn Chacon, rhp, Rockies
68. Robbie Bell, rhp, Braves
69. Brent Butler, ss, Cardinals
70. Preston Wilson, of, Mets
71. Mike Lowell, 3b, Yankees
72. Rafael Medina, rhp, Marlins
73. Jarrod Washburn, lhp, Angels
74. Ramon Hernandez, c, Athletics
75. Ramon Oritz, rhp, Angels
76. Wade Miller, rhp, Astros
77. Karim Garcia, of, Diamondbacks
78. Sidney Ponson, rhp, Orioles
79. Robinson Checo, rhp, Red Sox
80. Lorenzo Barcelo, rhp, White Sox
81. Derrick Gibson, of, Rockies
82. Gil Meche, rhp, Mariners
83. Javier Vazquez, rhp, Expos
84. David Ortiz, 1b, Twins
85. Nelson Lara, rhp, Marlins
86. Juan Melo, ss, Padres
87. Todd Dunwoody, of, Marlins
88. Chris Reitsma, rhp, Red Sox
89. Valerio de los Santos, lhp, Brewers
90. Jeff Wallace, lhp, Pirates
91. Dennis Reyes, lhp, Dodgers
92. Orlando Cabrera, 2b, Expos
93. George Lombard, of, Braves
94. Lariel Gonzalez, rhp, Rockies
95. Geoff Jenkins, of, Brewers
96. Geoff Goetz, lhp, Mets
97. Daryle Ward, 1b, Astros
98. Jackson Melian, of, Yankees
99. Kevin Witt, 1b, Blue Jays
100. Chris Enochs, rhp, Athletics
And the answer is that they were thinking quite clearly. The reality is there is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to baseball prospects. As I have written before, the major leagues play a different game than the minor leagues. And sometimes the flaws don't show up immediately even at the major league level. Grieve was noted for his "patience". Unfortunately for him, major league pitchers throw a lot more strikes and Grieve didn't get good results when swinging at them.
For Twins fans remembering that Sidney Ponson, Ray Ortiz and Dennis Reyes were all once top prospects may make them a lot more patient with the Twins farm system's productivity. You can add Darnell McDonald to that list of curious acquisitions. Or Enrique Wilson, who some Twins fans mourned the loss of for years after he was traded away. And lets not forget how much heat the Twins took from some fans when they failed to get Rickey Ledee in the Knoblauch deal. Or that having lost Travis Lee in the draft looked like a real disaster in 1998, not so much in 2008.
You might want to notice some players who were missing from this list. Torii Hunter for instance. But I am not going to try to go back and create that list because it would be almost as long as the one below. The reality is that while top 100 lists are fun for fans and writers, they should not be mistaken for the scouting lists that every team maintains. Most of the best players will make the list eventually, even if it is just before they win a major league job. But the fact that a player is or isn't on it one year doesn't guarantee anything.
And that is important for Twins fans to remember this year when only three Twins prospects made the list, two of them just acquired in the Santana trade. The Twins have a lot of depth in their system. And that depth will likely produce more major league players than having a handful more players on this years Top 100.
1. Ben Grieve, of, Athletics
2. Paul Konerko, 1b/3b, Dodgers
3. Adrian Beltre, 3b, Dodgers
4. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3b, Pirates
6. Matt White, rhp, Devil Rays
7. Kris Benson, rhp, Pirates
8. Travis Lee, 1b, Diamondbacks
9. Carl Pavano, rhp, Expos
10. Miguel Tejada, ss, Athletics
11. Todd Helton, 1b, Rockies
12. Mark Kotsay, of, Marlins
13. Chad Hermansen, 2b, Pirates
14. Brad Fullmer, 1b, Expos
15. Juan Encarnacion, of, Tigers
16. Matt Clement, rhp, Padres
17. Ruben Mateo, of, Rangers
18. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
19. Richard Hidalgo, of, Astros
20. Sean Casey, 1b, Indians
21. Darnell McDonald, of, Orioles
22. Brian Rose, rhp, Red Sox
23. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners
24. Matt Anderson, rhp, Tigers
25. Eric Milton, lhp, Twins
26. Russell Branyan, 3b, Indians
27. Bruce Chen, lhp, Braves
28. Scott Elarton, rhp, Astros
29. Grant Roberts, rhp, Mets
30. Eric Chavez, 3b, Athletics
31. Cesar King, c, Rangers
32. Dermal Brown, of, Royals
33. Eli Marrero, c, Cardinals
34. Mike Caruso, ss, White Sox
35. Ryan Minor, 3b, Orioles
36. Troy Glaus, 3b, Angels
37. Rolando Arrojo, rhp, Devil Rays
38. Roy Halladay, rhp, Blue Jays
39. Braden Looper, rhp, Cardinals
40. Ruben Rivera, of, Padres
41. Francisco Cordero, rhp, Tigers
42. A. J. Hinch, c, Athletics
43. Carlos Lee, 3b, White Sox
44. Luis Rivera, rhp, Braves
45. John Patterson, rhp, Diamondbacks
46. Ricky Ledee, of, Yankees
47. Derrek Lee, 1b, Marlins
48. Alex Gonzalez, ss, Marlins
49. Ben Davis, c, Padres
50. Willie Martinez, rhp, Indians
51. Michael Coleman, of, Red Sox
52. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
53. Ben Petrick, c, Rockies
54. Jason Grilli, rhp, Giants
55. Luis Rivas, ss, Twins
56. Magglio Ordonez, of, White Sox
57. Julio Ramirez, of, Marlins
58. Ryan Brannan, rhp, Phillies
59. Mike Judd, rhp, Dodgers
60. Ed Yarnall, lhp, Mets
61. Enrique Wilson, 2b, Indians
62. Damian Jackson, ss, Reds
63. Corey Lee, lhp, Rangers
64. Lance Berkman, of, Astros
65. Abraham Nunez, ss, Pirates
66. Joe Fontenot, rhp, Marlins
67. Shawn Chacon, rhp, Rockies
68. Robbie Bell, rhp, Braves
69. Brent Butler, ss, Cardinals
70. Preston Wilson, of, Mets
71. Mike Lowell, 3b, Yankees
72. Rafael Medina, rhp, Marlins
73. Jarrod Washburn, lhp, Angels
74. Ramon Hernandez, c, Athletics
75. Ramon Oritz, rhp, Angels
76. Wade Miller, rhp, Astros
77. Karim Garcia, of, Diamondbacks
78. Sidney Ponson, rhp, Orioles
79. Robinson Checo, rhp, Red Sox
80. Lorenzo Barcelo, rhp, White Sox
81. Derrick Gibson, of, Rockies
82. Gil Meche, rhp, Mariners
83. Javier Vazquez, rhp, Expos
84. David Ortiz, 1b, Twins
85. Nelson Lara, rhp, Marlins
86. Juan Melo, ss, Padres
87. Todd Dunwoody, of, Marlins
88. Chris Reitsma, rhp, Red Sox
89. Valerio de los Santos, lhp, Brewers
90. Jeff Wallace, lhp, Pirates
91. Dennis Reyes, lhp, Dodgers
92. Orlando Cabrera, 2b, Expos
93. George Lombard, of, Braves
94. Lariel Gonzalez, rhp, Rockies
95. Geoff Jenkins, of, Brewers
96. Geoff Goetz, lhp, Mets
97. Daryle Ward, 1b, Astros
98. Jackson Melian, of, Yankees
99. Kevin Witt, 1b, Blue Jays
100. Chris Enochs, rhp, Athletics
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Twins Starting Pitching 2008
The Minnesota Twins have been known for their pitching over the last few years. It looks like that will change in 2008. It is only a matter of time before Johan Santana is traded. And Santana was really the only established starter the Twins have after losing Carlos Silva as a free agent. So here are the prospects in order of certainty that they will be in the rotation to start the season:
Scott Baker - A second round draft choice, Baker started last year at AAA after failing in an earlier opportunity in 2006. By the end of last season he had established himself as a mid-rotation starter. He will never be the staff ace, but his results actually improved as the season went along. A very good sign for a young pitcher.
Boof Bonser - Bonser has lost some weight over the off-season. He had problems last season pitching beyond the 5th inning. Whether the weight loss will correct that is an open question. Bonser has decent stuff, but he needs to pitch deeper into games. You just can't afford a starter who consistently relies on the bullpen to bail him out with less than 6 innings pitched.
Francisco Liriano - Some people would put Liriano at the top of this list. Certainly if he is completely recovered he has the highest upside of any Twins pitcher (not named Santana). But, while most pitchers eventually recover from Tommy John surgery, the question is whether he will be completely recovered and back in form to start the season. The other issue, one that a lot of Twins fans choose to ignore, is that Liriano really hadn't established himself as a major league starter when he got hurt. He had a good hot streak in 2006, but he still has only 20 career major league starts. That isn't enough to really evaluate what his results will be when hitters have seen him several times. He may be ready to replace Santana as the staff ace, but he could also struggle and/or spend the year at AAA.
Kevin Slowey - Slowey got a shot last year and got shot down and ended up back at AAA for most of the year. The Twins are really counting on him to have learned from the experience. The results he got after being recalled in September were encouraging. His upside is another mid-rotation starter.
Glen Perkins - Perkins got hurt last year and missed most of the year. There seems to be some opinion that he is not really a starter and will end up in the bullpen. He is another guy who pencils in as a mid-rotation starter. Maybe he ends up in the bullpen as Joe Nathan's replacement if Nathan gets traded, but given the uncertainties of the Twins starting pitching he is likely going to be given a full shot at winning a spot in the rotation. He has the advantage of being a lefty.
Nick Blackburn - Blackburn has come a long way in one season. Before last year, he looked like his upside was a long minor league career - a short minor league career being more likely. He was recently named the top Twins prospect by Baseball America. That seems like a huge stretch of over-exuberance. Despite BBA writer John Manuel's claims to the contrary, Blackburn's likely upside is a bottom of the rotation starter unless he turns out to have the control of Brad Radke. He was sent to Arizona this fall, apparently with instructions to work on changing speeds. That is not a good sign for a guy who lacks a dominating pitch.
Brain Duensing - Duensing is another mid-rotation guy. Like Perkins, he is a lefty which gives him an advantage to start. He has zero major league experience and chances are he will start the season at AAA.
Zach Day - Day has recovered from rotator cuff surgery. He is a long-shot, but if he is healthy he could win a spot as the veteran the rotation. His upside is probably a number five starter who gives you some innings.
Brian Bass - Bass spent last year at the Twins AAA affiliate after signing as a minor league free agent. Then he pitched well in winter ball in Venezuela, was re-signed and added to the major league roster in November. He is likely a longshot for the rotation. His upside is similar to Nick Blackburn's. They are the same age, although Bass signed out of high school so he has more professional experience.
Matt Guerrier - Guerrier is almost certain to be in the bullpen. But he may be given a shot at the rotation if the younger guys prove they aren't ready.
That sounds like the Twins will be very thin on starting pitching in 2008. That is probably why they seem to be insisting that they get at least one major league ready pitching prospect
in return for Santana.
A rotation of Baker, Bonser, Slowey, Day and Bass? Scary.
Edit: Add Humber to that list.
Scott Baker - A second round draft choice, Baker started last year at AAA after failing in an earlier opportunity in 2006. By the end of last season he had established himself as a mid-rotation starter. He will never be the staff ace, but his results actually improved as the season went along. A very good sign for a young pitcher.
Boof Bonser - Bonser has lost some weight over the off-season. He had problems last season pitching beyond the 5th inning. Whether the weight loss will correct that is an open question. Bonser has decent stuff, but he needs to pitch deeper into games. You just can't afford a starter who consistently relies on the bullpen to bail him out with less than 6 innings pitched.
Francisco Liriano - Some people would put Liriano at the top of this list. Certainly if he is completely recovered he has the highest upside of any Twins pitcher (not named Santana). But, while most pitchers eventually recover from Tommy John surgery, the question is whether he will be completely recovered and back in form to start the season. The other issue, one that a lot of Twins fans choose to ignore, is that Liriano really hadn't established himself as a major league starter when he got hurt. He had a good hot streak in 2006, but he still has only 20 career major league starts. That isn't enough to really evaluate what his results will be when hitters have seen him several times. He may be ready to replace Santana as the staff ace, but he could also struggle and/or spend the year at AAA.
Kevin Slowey - Slowey got a shot last year and got shot down and ended up back at AAA for most of the year. The Twins are really counting on him to have learned from the experience. The results he got after being recalled in September were encouraging. His upside is another mid-rotation starter.
Glen Perkins - Perkins got hurt last year and missed most of the year. There seems to be some opinion that he is not really a starter and will end up in the bullpen. He is another guy who pencils in as a mid-rotation starter. Maybe he ends up in the bullpen as Joe Nathan's replacement if Nathan gets traded, but given the uncertainties of the Twins starting pitching he is likely going to be given a full shot at winning a spot in the rotation. He has the advantage of being a lefty.
Nick Blackburn - Blackburn has come a long way in one season. Before last year, he looked like his upside was a long minor league career - a short minor league career being more likely. He was recently named the top Twins prospect by Baseball America. That seems like a huge stretch of over-exuberance. Despite BBA writer John Manuel's claims to the contrary, Blackburn's likely upside is a bottom of the rotation starter unless he turns out to have the control of Brad Radke. He was sent to Arizona this fall, apparently with instructions to work on changing speeds. That is not a good sign for a guy who lacks a dominating pitch.
Brain Duensing - Duensing is another mid-rotation guy. Like Perkins, he is a lefty which gives him an advantage to start. He has zero major league experience and chances are he will start the season at AAA.
Zach Day - Day has recovered from rotator cuff surgery. He is a long-shot, but if he is healthy he could win a spot as the veteran the rotation. His upside is probably a number five starter who gives you some innings.
Brian Bass - Bass spent last year at the Twins AAA affiliate after signing as a minor league free agent. Then he pitched well in winter ball in Venezuela, was re-signed and added to the major league roster in November. He is likely a longshot for the rotation. His upside is similar to Nick Blackburn's. They are the same age, although Bass signed out of high school so he has more professional experience.
Matt Guerrier - Guerrier is almost certain to be in the bullpen. But he may be given a shot at the rotation if the younger guys prove they aren't ready.
That sounds like the Twins will be very thin on starting pitching in 2008. That is probably why they seem to be insisting that they get at least one major league ready pitching prospect
in return for Santana.
A rotation of Baker, Bonser, Slowey, Day and Bass? Scary.
Edit: Add Humber to that list.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Twins Top 10 - 1998 Retrospective
As Baseball America releases its top ten prospect list for 2008, its useful to look back and see who the top prospects were in the Minnesota system after the 1997 season. Not the guys everyone was excited about at the time, but who are the players who have been the most productive major leaguers. The Twins first round choices in the draft in 1997 were Michael Cuddyer and Matt LeCroy weren't officially signed until after the season so they didn't play. But I included them on the list because both made the Baseball America's list.
To start with, I looked at each level and found the players in the Twins system who became even marginal major leaguers for a very brief period. Michael Ryan and Brad Thomas are probably a stretch even at that low bar. And I used the level that they played at most. Some of these guys got brief promotions.
At AAA:
Todd Walker
Mark Redman
Travis Miller
At AA:
David Ortiz
Torii Hunter
Corey Koskie
Doug Mientkiewicz
Javier Valentine
Benj Sampson
At High- A Fort Myers
Chad Allen
Jacque Jones
AJ Pierzynski
Low A - Fort Wayne
Chad Moeller
Luis Rivas
Rookie - Elizabethton
Mike Ryan
JC(Juan) Romero
Brad Thomas
Gulf Coast
Grant Balfour
Juan Rincon
Didn't Play:
Cuddyer
LeCroy
Based on their actual performances in the major leagues, here is a list of the Twins top ten future major league players after the 2007 season:
Torii Hunter
David Ortiz
AJ Pierzynski
Jacque Jones
Michael Cuddyer
Corey Koskie
Juan Rincon
Doug Mientkiewicz
Mark Redman
Luis Rivas
There are really only two other candidates to be on that list, Matt LeCroy and Travis Miller.
Here are the top ten prospects in the Twins system after the 1997 season accoring to Baseball America in 1998:
1.Luis Rivas, SS
2.David Ortiz, 1B
3.Michael Cuddyer, SS
4.Chad Allen, OF
5.Torii Hunter, OF
6.Dan Serafini, LHP
7.Jacque Jones, OF
8.Corey Koskie, 3B
9.Matthew LeCroy, C
10.Mike Lincoln, RHP
Missing: Rincon, Redman, Mientkiewicz, Pierzynski,
Misses: Allen, Serafini, Lincoln, LeCroy
That is a pretty good record, considering the uncertainties with prospects. But its also important to remember that while we call it Baseball America's list, it is more likely the list of one of their writers with some input from others. John Manuel did this year's list and I don't think he was around in 1998.
The other thing is that if you look at the order of that BBA list, you don't want to make much of the differences between the number one guy and all the rest. Occasionally there is a real "can't miss" guy like Joe Mauer at the top. But usually these are really lists of prospects with little real difference between the number one player and the number ten. So when John Manuel says Nick Blackburn is the best prospect in the Twins' system, take it with a grain of salt. It means Blackburn has about a 50-50 shot of having a major league career.
To start with, I looked at each level and found the players in the Twins system who became even marginal major leaguers for a very brief period. Michael Ryan and Brad Thomas are probably a stretch even at that low bar. And I used the level that they played at most. Some of these guys got brief promotions.
At AAA:
Todd Walker
Mark Redman
Travis Miller
At AA:
David Ortiz
Torii Hunter
Corey Koskie
Doug Mientkiewicz
Javier Valentine
Benj Sampson
At High- A Fort Myers
Chad Allen
Jacque Jones
AJ Pierzynski
Low A - Fort Wayne
Chad Moeller
Luis Rivas
Rookie - Elizabethton
Mike Ryan
JC(Juan) Romero
Brad Thomas
Gulf Coast
Grant Balfour
Juan Rincon
Didn't Play:
Cuddyer
LeCroy
Based on their actual performances in the major leagues, here is a list of the Twins top ten future major league players after the 2007 season:
Torii Hunter
David Ortiz
AJ Pierzynski
Jacque Jones
Michael Cuddyer
Corey Koskie
Juan Rincon
Doug Mientkiewicz
Mark Redman
Luis Rivas
There are really only two other candidates to be on that list, Matt LeCroy and Travis Miller.
Here are the top ten prospects in the Twins system after the 1997 season accoring to Baseball America in 1998:
1.Luis Rivas, SS
2.David Ortiz, 1B
3.Michael Cuddyer, SS
4.Chad Allen, OF
5.Torii Hunter, OF
6.Dan Serafini, LHP
7.Jacque Jones, OF
8.Corey Koskie, 3B
9.Matthew LeCroy, C
10.Mike Lincoln, RHP
Missing: Rincon, Redman, Mientkiewicz, Pierzynski,
Misses: Allen, Serafini, Lincoln, LeCroy
That is a pretty good record, considering the uncertainties with prospects. But its also important to remember that while we call it Baseball America's list, it is more likely the list of one of their writers with some input from others. John Manuel did this year's list and I don't think he was around in 1998.
The other thing is that if you look at the order of that BBA list, you don't want to make much of the differences between the number one guy and all the rest. Occasionally there is a real "can't miss" guy like Joe Mauer at the top. But usually these are really lists of prospects with little real difference between the number one player and the number ten. So when John Manuel says Nick Blackburn is the best prospect in the Twins' system, take it with a grain of salt. It means Blackburn has about a 50-50 shot of having a major league career.
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