Can Mauer still hit .400?

As a starting point, lets just say that anyone, even Joe Mauer, hitting over .400 is highly unlikely. So when we ask the question, the obvious, simple, answer is no. But we aren't really talking about something that is likely. We are asking a question about whether the highly improbable is still possible.

If we assume that Mauer gets 500 at bats he will need 200 hits to hit .400. He currently has 139 hits in 363 at bats. so he would have to hit 61 for 137 (.446) to make the 200 for 500 mark and hit .400.  So far this year, Mauer has yet to sustain anything like that number for a full calendar month. He hit .414 when he came back in May. On the other hand, he is hitting .485 so far this month (as of August 19th). So while the idea remains highly improbable, he probably is closer to it than he was back in June when people were already talking about it with four months still to go in the season. 

Anyone Notice the Twins Offense?

The collapse of the Twins starters has obscured the fact that the Twins offense is in overdrive. They scored 6 runs in last night's game and that is about average for the month of August.  They have now scored 103 runs in 17 games this month. That is almost a full run higher than their season average. For the season, the Twins lead the Central Division in scoring, just ahead of the Cleveland Indians. Which makes even clearer that the real struggles of this team are caused by pitching failures, in case anyone doubted it.  But if the pitching can get on track, the Twins offense may still be able to carry the team into the playoffs.

What is Wrong with the Twins Pitching

In truth, we should have expected this. The Twins started the year with five young pitchers in the rotation. None of them had more than one full season of major league success. And there were really no pitchers ready immediately behind them. We saw that when R.A. Dickey stepped up to take a start early in the year. But while some setbacks were expected, three of the "young five" are now on the DL and the performance of the rotation does a lot to explain the Twins struggles to stay in the pennant race. Its been a lot worse than we should have expected.

So is there a reason? I think its possible that in an effort to save the bullpen, starters have been left in the game too long. That has an immediate impact when they stop getting hitters out, but it also has a cumulative impact as the workload starts to wear them down.  Ironically, the result is even more pressure on the bullpen making it in turn even less reliable.

Here is a comparison of the 2008 and 2009 season for the "young five", Baker, Liriano, Perkins, Slowey and Balckburn

2008 the five made 128 starts and threw over 100 pitches in 39 games.

2009 the five have made 93 starts and already have thrown over 100 pitches in 38 games.

Perkins is the only one of the "young five" whose highest pitch count this year has not exceeded last year's top count and his equaled last season.

In short, the "young five" have been asked to do much more this year. It is not unlikely, it was too much. And that may explain the current state of the rotation.

Consistency

"They can't stick with this rotation — Blackburn, Swarzak, Perkins, Baker, Liriano — and expect the sort of consistency it takes to make the playoffs."

That quote from Joe Christiansen's blog is a great example of how "serious" baseball fans can still completely misunderstand the nature of the game. Would replacing Swarzak in the rotation with  Washburn, much less Jon Garland,  suddenly make Blackburn Baker, Perkins and Liriano more consistent? You can replace Liriano instead, but that does nothing on the days, like yesterday, when Swarzak pitches.

Some people take this even further, arguing the Twins should make a priority of replacing Keppel, Duensing or Dickey with a better mopup pitcher.  The problem the Twins have with pitching is not going to be fixed with a single trade, the bottom line is they guys they have are going to have to get better and more consistent. 

There is no doubt that adding a veteran ace would help the pitching staff, including the bullpen. But adding a mediocre, inconsistent veteran isn't going to change anything. 

Of course, Joe Christiansen is just trying to keep the media's "the Twins need to make a trade" narrative going. The formula of every blogger: stir pot, watch traffic increase.

Stir.  

Where Twins were Drafted

When you look at where players on the Twins current roster were drafted it gives you a pretty good idea of what to expect from players drafted in the second day of the draft. The Twins roster has 15 players taken in the top 200 (12 of them in the top 100) and 6 taken during the remainder of the draft. The rest of the roster is made up of players who were signed as free agents, including Mike Redmond who fell through the entire draft. Even among the top 100 the vast majority of players never appear in the major leagues, but after that the odds after 200 are literally less than one in a hundred if the Twins' roster is representative.

Top 100:

Mauer

Morneau

Cuddyer

Young

Span

Buscher

Perkins

Baker

Slowey

Crain

Swarzak

Dickey

100-200:

Crede

Harris

Nathan

200-300:

300-400:

Guerrier

Kubel

400-500:

Tolbert

600-700:

Punto

700-800:

Henn

800-900:

Blackburn

900-1500:

Undrafted:

Ayala

Liriano

Mijares

Casilla

Gomez

Redmond

Now in minors or released:

Top 100:

Humber

Morales

Duensing

700-800

Breslow

The Draft

The baseball draft is this week and the blogs are lighted up with discussion of who the hometown team will choose. Before people get too excited there are several things to keep in mind about the baseball draft:

1) If a draft produces one above average major league regular, it was a success. Even if taken in the first round, the majority of players taken in the draft will likely never appear in the major leagues, not even for a brief stint.  On the other hand, the first round is going to produce most of the real stars. After about the first 100 players drafted, the odds are very low a player will ever make it to the major leagues. But the odds they will be an everyday player are even lower. The likelihood they will be a star are minimal. Take a look at the Twins lineup and you have Span, Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer who were all taken in the top 100. As were Perkins, Baker and Slowey. Its obviously not impossible to find a top player later in the draft, Joe Nathan being an example. The Twins did that with Brad Radke and it looks like they may have done it again with Jason Kubel and maybe even Nick Blackburn. But those are rarities, if you find one of those it is a huge bonus.

There will be close to 1500 players drafted. About 200 players will make their major league debut each year and some of those 200 didn't go through the draft.  Many of them only get a brief September callup as a reward for minor league service.

2) We don't really know how much impact the quality of a teams minor league development determines their success compared to the quality of their pre-draft scouting. Its perfectly possible that if two teams both chose the same player, one would end up with an all-star and the other with a failure. So you can point to the success of a player like Brad Radke who was chosen later in the draft but its not clear how much his success depended on having the right coaching in the Twins minor leagues.

3) It will be five years before the players drafted this week are likely to provide significant major league value. And it will be 10 years before we will have a clear idea about how successful a draft was in terms of the major league careers that resulted. Michael Cuddyer is a good case in point. In 2007, 9 years after he was drafted, he finally established himself as a major league regular. Its now 11 years later, and people are still pondering how good a major league player he will ultimately become. You could say the same thing for Jason Kubel, next year will be ten years from his draft. 

Five years is usually just the starting point for contributions. From the 2004 draft Glen Perkins and Matt Tolbert had made the major leagues at the start of the season. Anthony Swarzak can be added to that list now. But there are a lot of players taken in 2004, like Trevor Plouffe and Rene Tosoni, in the minor leagues who are still seen as future major leaguers. The 2005 draft has already produced Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey. But aside from Brian Duensing's brief stint this year, those are the only players the Twins have taken since 2004 who have produced at the major league level. 

4) While we tend to focus on the expectation that a draft will produce stars, or at least a major league regular, many players are taken because they have one plus major league tool that may allow them to develop into a role player. And many players don't have even that. They are taken as "organizational" players to fill out minor league rosters. Occasionally one of those guys matures into a major league player. but usually they hit a plateau end up being sent home at some point when younger players, who still have a chance to get better, come along. 

In short, every draft is going to have a lot of failures and only a very few successes. That is true, despite the fact that 30 teams have invested in heavily vetting every young player drafted. Its fun to look at Baseball America or John Sickels predictions, but its important to remember they are basically amateurs with one opinion who are rewarded by fans being interesting. The draft itself is the collective wisdom of 30 teams of experienced baseball people who are evaluated based on their success.

The Twins Bullpen

There seems to be a lot of angst about the Twins bullpen out there right now. And maybe there is some reason for that since they have already sent two guys to the minor leagues. But its not like the bullpen has been blowing a lot of games. They have taken only two losses, all the rest have been lost by the starters. Part of the reason for the disparity between perception and reality is that they have allowed some inherited runners to score, leaving the starter holding the bag. That is part of what happened with Baker the other night. But the numbers don't lie. It hasn't been the bullpen that has been responsible for the Twins losses - its been the starters.

With the addition of Crain and Mijares whatever problems there have been in the bullpen may be in the past. Guerrier appears to be settling in as well. It seems that it always takes a month or so before the bullpen roles get defined.  Those roles are becoming clearer. Dickey is the mop-up guy and his knuckleball is really ideal for that rubber armed role. Breslow is back to being a second left hander. Last year he exceeded expectations, but the role of LOOGY may be a more appropriate. Ayala is really the only guy whose role is still wide open. He was seen as an 8th inning buy, but unless he can get his sinker to sink, he may turn out to be this year's free agent failure. That will probably depend on the development of some alternatives at AAA. Right now no one is pounding on the door ready to take a job.

Which is the real problem we need to be concerned about. For all the talk about the Twins system's wealth of pitching, right now they are very thin behind both their starters and their bullpen. They need to keep the major league players healthy at least until some of the young guys show they are ready to step up later in the year.  Otherwise it could be a long year.