Major league rosters expand September 1st. This means the Twins can activate anyone on the 40 player roster on September 1st. In the past the Twins have usually waited until the minor league seasons are finished to call up players they just want to take a look at but they will add players immediately if they think can help in the pennant race. So who are the likely call-ups:
Catcher - Morales is the most likely guy here. My bet is they call him up September 1 so that they can DH Mauer without worrying about losing the DH. They might give Butera a callup later given his defensive skills.
Infield - I think Tolbert and Buscher are probably givens. Buscher may even be added August 31st to put him on the playoff roster. Plouffe and Tolleson are both on the roster, but its not clear either one can help in a pennant race. My guess is these guys get call-ups only if the Twins are all but finished when the Rochester season ends.
Outfield - The Twins have a surplus in the outfield already. But they may take one more look at Jason Pridie. Pridie would provide a pinch runner and more flexilbility in how Young and Gomez are used.
Pitching - I think the Twins will add enough pitching so that the bullpen is overstocked. Dickey, Swarzak, Mulvey are already on the 40 player roster and likely to be added for the September run. Given the pitching struggles, any of those three could find themselves on the playoff roster if they get hot in September.
There are a lot of players who are not on the roster that might warrant a look. But there does not appear to be any players on the 40 player roster that the Twins are likely to release in order to provide room for them. Pridie or Dickey would be possibilities if they are ready to give up on them. Deibinson Romero is a young A-ball player who might pass through waivers. Luke Hughes would be the other player they might be ready to give up on. I think all of those are doubtful The most likely scenario is that they wait until the season is over and guys like Crede, Redmond and Cabrera leave as free agents to start promoting players. That means this year September call-ups are going to be limited to the players already on the major league roster.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Monday, August 24, 2009
Playoff Roster - Getting Ready for the World Series
As we approach the end of the month, the Twins will need to make decisions about the makeup of their playoff roster. In theory, the 25 players on the roster on September 1st make up the roster for the playoffs. But, like many major league "rules" this one has a some nuances. Players on the DL September 1st are also eligible for the post season roster and they can be replaced with another player if they are still injured when the playoffs start. A pitcher can only be replaced with another pitcher and a fielder with another fielder. So the decision on how many pitchers to carry on their playoff roster has to be made before September 1st.
The Twins have 12 pitchers and 13 position players right now, but I would expect they would add another position player to the playoff roster. They can get by in the playoffs with four starters. Given the weaknesses in their rotation, finding four, much less five, quality starters is going to be a challenge. Its possible that will lead them to carry an additional reliever, but if their bullpen is getting that much work during the playoffs they probably are in trouble in any case.
The Twins have three pitchers on the DL, but no everyday players. This means that they can decide which pitchers to carry later, but once they set the roster on September 1st they will have to go through the playoffs with the everyday players on that roster, barring any injuries. Here are the current players on the roster:
Mauer
Redmond
Morneau
Casilla
Cabrera
Punto
Harris
Crede
Cuddyer
Young
Gomez
Span
Kubel
So who would you add to that list or change. What seems to be missing on the current roster is a left handed bat off the bench. The only hitters you would likely pinch hit for are Casilla, Harris and Punto. But, once you get to the World Series you are also going to have to pinch hit for pitchers. So, odd as it may seem, the Twins will be setting their roster September 1st wtih one eye on the World Series.
One candidate for the 14 player is Jose Morales. He provides a switch hitter off the bench. They already have Redmond on the bench as a backup catcher and Mauer is going to start every game in the playoffs. Morales is probably a better hitter than Redmond, but he has less major league experience and the Twins are unlikely to remove Redmond from the playoff roster.
Another candidate is Brian Buscher. Gardenhire has already said he expects Buscher to be called up in September. Buscher has not been hitting that well at Rochester., but he does give Gardy an experienced left handed bat on the bench.
Tolbert would also be a candidate. He will also be a September callup, but his role is as a pinch runner and infield backup. I don't think that really fits the need very well with Punto and Harris filling the infield need and Gomez likely being available on the bench during the World Series.
My guess is they will go with Brian Buscher. Of course its possible they will try to grab a veteran bat off waivers.
The Twins have 12 pitchers and 13 position players right now, but I would expect they would add another position player to the playoff roster. They can get by in the playoffs with four starters. Given the weaknesses in their rotation, finding four, much less five, quality starters is going to be a challenge. Its possible that will lead them to carry an additional reliever, but if their bullpen is getting that much work during the playoffs they probably are in trouble in any case.
The Twins have three pitchers on the DL, but no everyday players. This means that they can decide which pitchers to carry later, but once they set the roster on September 1st they will have to go through the playoffs with the everyday players on that roster, barring any injuries. Here are the current players on the roster:
Mauer
Redmond
Morneau
Casilla
Cabrera
Punto
Harris
Crede
Cuddyer
Young
Gomez
Span
Kubel
So who would you add to that list or change. What seems to be missing on the current roster is a left handed bat off the bench. The only hitters you would likely pinch hit for are Casilla, Harris and Punto. But, once you get to the World Series you are also going to have to pinch hit for pitchers. So, odd as it may seem, the Twins will be setting their roster September 1st wtih one eye on the World Series.
One candidate for the 14 player is Jose Morales. He provides a switch hitter off the bench. They already have Redmond on the bench as a backup catcher and Mauer is going to start every game in the playoffs. Morales is probably a better hitter than Redmond, but he has less major league experience and the Twins are unlikely to remove Redmond from the playoff roster.
Another candidate is Brian Buscher. Gardenhire has already said he expects Buscher to be called up in September. Buscher has not been hitting that well at Rochester., but he does give Gardy an experienced left handed bat on the bench.
Tolbert would also be a candidate. He will also be a September callup, but his role is as a pinch runner and infield backup. I don't think that really fits the need very well with Punto and Harris filling the infield need and Gomez likely being available on the bench during the World Series.
My guess is they will go with Brian Buscher. Of course its possible they will try to grab a veteran bat off waivers.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Perkins, Liriano are Twins Last Hope
For the Twins to remain in the pennant race, or get back into it, will depend on their pitching getting back on track. Is there any chance of that happening? I think there is. Right now the Twins have two starting pitchers who will give them a chance to win when they are on the mound - Baker and Pavano. The remaining healthy potential starters are not promising with Blackburn, Swarzak, Duensing, Humber and Manship all struggling with some basic flaws in their ability to get major league hitters out. The next couple weeks will see all of them get a chance to pitch either as starters or in relief of one another.
There are also two guys on the DL, Liriano and Perkins, who have shown the ability to pitch effectively in a pennant race. And RA DIckey just put up a decent outing at AAA. His success depends on his knuckleball and if he has it working again there is no reason he can't be just as effective at the major league level. So there are three guys who are not currently on the 25 player roster who could step in by Labor Day.
Of that first bunch, the most likely to step up is Blackburn. He has been effective in the past, but there are plenty of doubts about his ability to continue that success. Of course there were always doubts about his ability to be successful and he silenced the doubters with his performance. If he is going to hold his position in the rotation, he needs to turn things around soon. Last night was a good start. Once Perkins and Liriano return, the Twins are far more likely to experiment with prospects than give starts to a struggling Blackburn.
Of the prospects, Swarzak has the best stuff but major league hitters have caught up to him. He probably has at least one more start to adjust. Not because he deserves it, but because there are not a lot of other options. Duensing is next in line. He has the advantage that hitters are seeing him for the first time. But any success he has now will likely be tested when they repeatedly play Central Division teams in September. Humber was called up to give them a live arm in the bullpen. He may get a start, but only if the others fail. Same with Manship.
You can add Gabino, a young pitcher who is on the 40 player roster and has been doing well at AAA, to the list of potential experiments but he probably won't get any opportunities to start until the Twins are out of the race. In fact, even that is unlikely. While he has recently had some starts at AAA, he has always been seen as more a reliever at the major league level.
So the Twins success the rest of the way really depends on Perkins and Liriano coming off the DL and pitching effectively. If that happens, the Twins will make a race of it. If it doesn't, well there is always next year.
There are also two guys on the DL, Liriano and Perkins, who have shown the ability to pitch effectively in a pennant race. And RA DIckey just put up a decent outing at AAA. His success depends on his knuckleball and if he has it working again there is no reason he can't be just as effective at the major league level. So there are three guys who are not currently on the 25 player roster who could step in by Labor Day.
Of that first bunch, the most likely to step up is Blackburn. He has been effective in the past, but there are plenty of doubts about his ability to continue that success. Of course there were always doubts about his ability to be successful and he silenced the doubters with his performance. If he is going to hold his position in the rotation, he needs to turn things around soon. Last night was a good start. Once Perkins and Liriano return, the Twins are far more likely to experiment with prospects than give starts to a struggling Blackburn.
Of the prospects, Swarzak has the best stuff but major league hitters have caught up to him. He probably has at least one more start to adjust. Not because he deserves it, but because there are not a lot of other options. Duensing is next in line. He has the advantage that hitters are seeing him for the first time. But any success he has now will likely be tested when they repeatedly play Central Division teams in September. Humber was called up to give them a live arm in the bullpen. He may get a start, but only if the others fail. Same with Manship.
You can add Gabino, a young pitcher who is on the 40 player roster and has been doing well at AAA, to the list of potential experiments but he probably won't get any opportunities to start until the Twins are out of the race. In fact, even that is unlikely. While he has recently had some starts at AAA, he has always been seen as more a reliever at the major league level.
So the Twins success the rest of the way really depends on Perkins and Liriano coming off the DL and pitching effectively. If that happens, the Twins will make a race of it. If it doesn't, well there is always next year.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Can Mauer still hit .400?
As a starting point, lets just say that anyone, even Joe Mauer, hitting over .400 is highly unlikely. So when we ask the question, the obvious, simple, answer is no. But we aren't really talking about something that is likely. We are asking a question about whether the highly improbable is still possible.
If we assume that Mauer gets 500 at bats he will need 200 hits to hit .400. He currently has 139 hits in 363 at bats. so he would have to hit 61 for 137 (.446) to make the 200 for 500 mark and hit .400. So far this year, Mauer has yet to sustain anything like that number for a full calendar month. He hit .414 when he came back in May. On the other hand, he is hitting .485 so far this month (as of August 19th). So while the idea remains highly improbable, he probably is closer to it than he was back in June when people were already talking about it with four months still to go in the season.
If we assume that Mauer gets 500 at bats he will need 200 hits to hit .400. He currently has 139 hits in 363 at bats. so he would have to hit 61 for 137 (.446) to make the 200 for 500 mark and hit .400. So far this year, Mauer has yet to sustain anything like that number for a full calendar month. He hit .414 when he came back in May. On the other hand, he is hitting .485 so far this month (as of August 19th). So while the idea remains highly improbable, he probably is closer to it than he was back in June when people were already talking about it with four months still to go in the season.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Anyone Notice the Twins Offense?
The collapse of the Twins starters has obscured the fact that the Twins offense is in overdrive. They scored 6 runs in last night's game and that is about average for the month of August. They have now scored 103 runs in 17 games this month. That is almost a full run higher than their season average. For the season, the Twins lead the Central Division in scoring, just ahead of the Cleveland Indians. Which makes even clearer that the real struggles of this team are caused by pitching failures, in case anyone doubted it. But if the pitching can get on track, the Twins offense may still be able to carry the team into the playoffs.
What is Wrong with the Twins Pitching
In truth, we should have expected this. The Twins started the year with five young pitchers in the rotation. None of them had more than one full season of major league success. And there were really no pitchers ready immediately behind them. We saw that when R.A. Dickey stepped up to take a start early in the year. But while some setbacks were expected, three of the "young five" are now on the DL and the performance of the rotation does a lot to explain the Twins struggles to stay in the pennant race. Its been a lot worse than we should have expected.
So is there a reason? I think its possible that in an effort to save the bullpen, starters have been left in the game too long. That has an immediate impact when they stop getting hitters out, but it also has a cumulative impact as the workload starts to wear them down. Ironically, the result is even more pressure on the bullpen making it in turn even less reliable.
Here is a comparison of the 2008 and 2009 season for the "young five", Baker, Liriano, Perkins, Slowey and Balckburn
2008 the five made 128 starts and threw over 100 pitches in 39 games.
2009 the five have made 93 starts and already have thrown over 100 pitches in 38 games.
Perkins is the only one of the "young five" whose highest pitch count this year has not exceeded last year's top count and his equaled last season.
In short, the "young five" have been asked to do much more this year. It is not unlikely, it was too much. And that may explain the current state of the rotation.
So is there a reason? I think its possible that in an effort to save the bullpen, starters have been left in the game too long. That has an immediate impact when they stop getting hitters out, but it also has a cumulative impact as the workload starts to wear them down. Ironically, the result is even more pressure on the bullpen making it in turn even less reliable.
Here is a comparison of the 2008 and 2009 season for the "young five", Baker, Liriano, Perkins, Slowey and Balckburn
2008 the five made 128 starts and threw over 100 pitches in 39 games.
2009 the five have made 93 starts and already have thrown over 100 pitches in 38 games.
Perkins is the only one of the "young five" whose highest pitch count this year has not exceeded last year's top count and his equaled last season.
In short, the "young five" have been asked to do much more this year. It is not unlikely, it was too much. And that may explain the current state of the rotation.
Sunday, August 02, 2009
Consistency
"They can't stick with this rotation — Blackburn, Swarzak, Perkins, Baker, Liriano — and expect the sort of consistency it takes to make the playoffs."
That quote from Joe Christiansen's blog is a great example of how "serious" baseball fans can still completely misunderstand the nature of the game. Would replacing Swarzak in the rotation with Washburn, much less Jon Garland, suddenly make Blackburn Baker, Perkins and Liriano more consistent? You can replace Liriano instead, but that does nothing on the days, like yesterday, when Swarzak pitches.
Some people take this even further, arguing the Twins should make a priority of replacing Keppel, Duensing or Dickey with a better mopup pitcher. The problem the Twins have with pitching is not going to be fixed with a single trade, the bottom line is they guys they have are going to have to get better and more consistent.
Some people take this even further, arguing the Twins should make a priority of replacing Keppel, Duensing or Dickey with a better mopup pitcher. The problem the Twins have with pitching is not going to be fixed with a single trade, the bottom line is they guys they have are going to have to get better and more consistent.
There is no doubt that adding a veteran ace would help the pitching staff, including the bullpen. But adding a mediocre, inconsistent veteran isn't going to change anything.
Of course, Joe Christiansen is just trying to keep the media's "the Twins need to make a trade" narrative going. The formula of every blogger: stir pot, watch traffic increase.
Stir.
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