Spots "Locked Down"

We have reached a point in the season, a little over a week from opening day, where impatient beat writers start setting the roster. They talk about about how guys competing have "locked down" a spot on the roster. But, in fact, no spot on the roster is a "lock" until Gardenhire (and Terry Ryan) decide it is. And they have another week to watch players before making that decision. The beat writers and many fans, including me, had Ben Revere set as the left fielder before spring training started. Now, Gardenhire apparently has decided to go in a different direction.

The same thing may, or may not, happen with the bullpen and bench spots over the next week. I have ranked the chances I think different players have for the bullpen and the bench. Some players are clearly "locks". They went into spring training as locks, like the veterans on the team, or they had spots set aside for them to lose only by severely under-performing this spring, like Plouffe and Swarzak.

But, for players in legitimate competition, there is still a week to go. Gardenhire is going to give a lot of weight to how they do this last week against better competition. That is particularly true for the bullpen guys. Reports have Burton and Maloney having broken away from the pack for two of the last three bullpen spots. But we have had those kinds of reports at this time of the year in the past and then the last week happened. Until we hear a player has won a spot from Gardenhire, we ought to have at least a bit of uncertainty. Because its likely Gardenhire still has some uncertainty and he still has a week of games to watch before he has to make final decisions.

Competition for the Twins Bench Jobs

Why is Brian Dinkelman still in the major league camp? There must be a lot of fans asking that question. We got the answer yesterday, he's still in camp because he is a good organization player who is pretty flexible. And that means he can play the last couple innings of a game in left, while Ben Revere gets some time in center field. He isn't competing for a job.

I thought it would be interesting to turn the list of players who are still in camp upside down and ask who is the least likely to make the team? Here is that list, and if you invert it you get the current standings in the race for the last four spots on the roster:

Dinkelman
Towles
Hollimon

Butera
Revere
Burroughs
Parmelee
Hughes


Since the last rankings Dozier, Benson, Florimon and Rivera were sent to the minor leagues. Florimon apparently is going to play at AA. Dozier, Rivera and Benson are likely to be at AAA.

I think Towles and Hollimon are likely in the same spot as Dinkelman. They are bench guys for spring training games, rather than in the competition for a spot on the 25 player roster. That means there are five players competing for 4 spots, assuming Mauer, Morneau, Casilla, Carroll, Valencia, Plouffe, Span, Willingham and Doumit are on the roster.

As I mentioned in a previous post, the decisions on which ones make it probably depend on Morneau and whether they decide to pick someone up on waivers as a backup shortstop. If Morneau DH's, Parmelee is at first and they need to find at bats for Doumit in the outfield. With Doumit in the field he can back up Mauer and Butera becomes less important. If Morneau is at first, Parmelee shares time with Plouffe in the outfield and, with Doumit at DH, there is more need for Butera as a backup catcher.

Either way, I don't see Revere having much of a role, but Gardenhire has seemed to indicate he intends to keep him as a fourth or fifth outfielder. If that is right, then Butera probably doesn't have a job.

Hughes and Burroughs are in competition for the extra infield spot, but if the Twins don't find a utility guy, they are both likely to make the roster.

Wednesday March 28th Update On Twins Bullpen Competition

Swarzak, Gray and Burton helped themselves with good outings today. Swarzak started and gave up three walks, including the last two batters he faced after getting 3.2 innings. Gray and Burton both followed with hitless/walkless performances, Gray going 2.1 innings and Burton 1. After the game Gardenhire apparently confirmed that Swarzak would be on the roster.

Gray got moved up in the rankings based on his performance today into the lead for the 7th spot, assuming Burton and Maloney make the roster. As I said yesterday, I am not sure you can read even that much into results. But Gray is on the roster and out of options, I believe, so he probably has a slight advantage anyway if everything else is equal.

There was also some talk from the beat writers that the Twins might keep another bullpen arm if they put Baker and/or Plouffe on the DL to start the year. That would allow them to delay a final decision for a couple weeks.

Here are the new rankings.

Capps
Perkins
Duensing
Swarzak

Maloney
Burton

Gray
Waldrop
Burnett
Fien

Hendricks

Previous rankings:
March 27th
Rankings 6 - March 25
Rankings 5 - March 24
Rankings 4 - March 22
Rankings 3
Rankings 2
Rankings 1

Bullpen Update - Tuesday March 27th

Wise, as expected, was sent to the minor league camp. Aside from that, there wasn't much that happened today to change the outlook for the bullpen.

With Liam Hendrick putting in 5 innings in relief of Scott Baker, Jeff Manship and Casey Fien were the only bullpen candidates who pitched in the regular game. Both got nicked a bit, but I doubt it was fatal for either one. I don't think either one helped themselves much either based on their results. Fien gave up one run on two doubles in one inning. Manship pitched 1 and 1/3 innings and gave up a hit and a walk.

UPDATE: Apparently Manship's performance was fatal. He was optioned to AAA Tuesday morning.

Based on that, Fien dropped a notch below Gray. Manship dropped behind Waldrop and Burnett mostly because he had an opportunity and didn't completely ace it. The truth is there is very little separating the five guys in the third group and results are probably only a very rough measure of how well they are doing.

Here is my updated rankings after Monday's game in four groups in order of how likely they are to fill out the bullpen:

Capps
Perkins
Duensing

Swarzak
Maloney
Burton

Waldrop
Burnett
Manship - update: optioned to AAA
Gray
Fien

Hendricks

Previous rankings:
Rankings 6 - March 25
Rankings 5 - March 24
Rankings 4 - March 22
Rankings 3
Rankings 2
Rankings 1

Twins Defense

Baseball Outsider is pointing out that the decision to move Jason Willingham to left and, presumably Revere to right field, the bench or AAA, leaves the Twins outfield defense unimproved from last year. The article assumes Ryan Doumit will be out in right field a lot. While I think its more likely that Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee are out there, his basic point is correct. If the Twins pitchers were looking forward to an outfield defense that was going to chase balls down, they aren't going to have it.

This is actually a continuation of the pattern since Tom Kelly left. There are probably only four players on the Twins you would call plus defenders, Mauer, Morneau, Span and Casilla. That list includes what are arguably the threes best offensive players. Carroll, Valencia, Willingham and whoever is in right field are all likely to be at least slightly below average for their position. And, of course, Ryan Doumit is defensively challenged as the backup behind the plate. That's the only reason he was available to the Twins as a free agent.

Aside from Revere, the only players still in camp competing for a job based on their defense are the third catchers and Pedro Florimon as a backup shortstop. Sean Burroughs is probably a plus defender at third base, but if he wins a job it will be as a veteran bat off the bench. Luke Hughes is defensively challenged, no matter where he plays. He will make the roster for his bat. Trevor Plouffe is in the outfield because he can't play shortstop. He may turn into a good defender, but he has almost no experience there right now. Chris Parmelee is not a particularly good defensive first baseman, but he will likely be playing in right field anyway where his defense was marginal even as a minor league player.

There was a point where it looked like the Twins bench might include two defensive specialists, Butera and Florimon along with Hughes and Plouffe as extra bats. With Revere as a regular in left field the Twins had the ability to put a good defensive team on the field. Now, if Parmelee, Hughes and Plouffe are on the roster, there is really only room for one defensive guy. That could be Ben Revere or it could be a third catcher or it could be a defensive infielder. In any case, the need for offense has once again trumped defensive improvements. I am sure we will hear a lot of grumbling from Gardenhire during the season, but the reality is he only values defense in its absence.

Rethinking The Roster Competition

A lot of assumptions, at least my assumptions, were thrown into disarray this weekend when Ron Gardenhire announced Willingham will be the starting left fielder, not right fielder. That left Ben Revere without a position. In addition, Terry Ryan indicated Chris Parmelee's bat had all but forced them to find him a spot on the roster and Parmelee was out in right field for three straight games. Also, Justin Morneau's lack of playing time at first became an issue. If Morneau is the everday DH, then Doumit's only remaining role is backup catcher with possible occasional appearances at first and in the outfield. That leaves a third catcher without much of a role.

So where does that put us?

There are now only nine players with spots set, Mauer, Doumit, Morneau, Casilla, Carroll, Valencia, Span, Willingham and Plouffe. That leaves 12 players competing or 4 openings with numerous possibilities for how they will be filled.

The puzzle is made very complicated by the flexibility of various players, but there are two likely options for how the four players are positioned:

first base,
outfield,
2 utility infielders

outfield,
catcher,
2 utility infielders;

Either way there remains the question of whether one of the two utility guys has to be able to play shortstop.

Here are the players who can play each position, although I doubt Benson or Dozier are really in the competition:

First base:
Parmelee
Hughes
Burroughs

Outfield:
Parmelee
Revere
Dinkelman
Benson

Utility Infielders:
Hughes
Burroughs
Florimon (ss)
Hollimon (ss)
Dozier (ss)

Third Catcher:
Butera
Rivera
Towles


Gardenhire made it clear that Morneau is a key element here. If he plays first, Doumit is the everyday DH and they need a third catcher and outfield space for Parmelee to play. If Morneau is the DH, Doumit is the backup catcher and Parmelee plays first. That leaves an opening in the outfield and no need for backup catcher. Either way, there remains a competition in the infield between Hughes, Burroughs, Florimon and Hollimon for two spots.

Based on that assessment here is how I see the current rankings in order of the likelihood the individuals will be on the roster:

Parmelee
Hughes
Revere
Burroughs
Florimon

Butera
Rivera
Towles
Hollimon
Dinkelman

Dozier
Benson

Five Competing for One Spot in Bullpen?

There are reports that Burton and Maloney are the front runners for two bullpen spots. I think Swarzak is still ahead of both of those two. Brendan Wise has had two rough outings and looks like he is no longer in the competition. That would leave five pitchers competing for one spot.

Saturday, Maloney got out all six batters he faced. Burnett gave up 3 hits, a walk and a run in two innings. Fien gave up a walk and a hit in one inning, but all the damage was done after an error that gave the Cardinals an extra out. Gray started the game and went two innings giving up two runs on two hits and a walk.

Sunday, Burton left the game after a rain delay when he came into the game without finishing a batter. Wise gave up two runs on three hits.

Here is my updated rankings after Sunday's game in four groups in order of how likely they are to fill out the bullpen:

Capps
Perkins
Duensing

Swarzak
Maloney
Burton

Manship
Waldrop
Burnett
Fien
Gray

Wise
Hendricks

Previous rankings:
Rankings 5 - March 24
Rankings 4 - March 22
Rankings 3
Rankings 2
Rankings 1