Marquis, Hendricks, Swarzak or Maloney?

There were several developments recently that have put the Twins starting rotation into a state of flux.

Jason Marguis has been gone for an extended period because his daughter fell of her bike and was seriously injured. Apparently he has been pitching with some high school kids to keep his arm in shape, but unless he returns soon its not likely he will be ready to pitch the first week of the season.

Scott Baker was put on the DL today. This is not all that significant, but it guarantees he will not pitch the home opener. Since the Twins have a day off after their first four games, they won't need a fifth starter until the second time through the rotation. Baker will be eligible to come off the DL before then.

Liam Hendricks had another good outing yesterday, giving up one hit in five innings. And today Anthony Swarzak, who is being stretched out to make him available to start, went six innings and gave up only one run. Earlier this week Matt Maloney, also being stretched out, had a solid outing Thursday but only went three innings.

Its likely Nick Blackburn will take Baker's place for the home opener. The need for Hendricks, Swarzak or Maloney to start depends on whether Marquis is ready to pitch a week from tomorrow in the final game of the Baltimore series. If not the Twins will at least need a spot starter for that game. If Marquis is ready, then it won't be until Sunday April 15th that would need a starter if Baker isn't ready by then.

It seemed likely that Hendricks would take the spot start on Sunday the 8th in Baltimore. But Swarzak's outing today might change that. It might depend on how likely it is that Baker and Marsuis are both going to be available the second time through the rotation. As I said wrote inyesterday's post on the bullpen competition, the decision to keep Hendricks on the roster means one less spot for bullpen candidates.

Twins Bench Competition Over?

Butera was sent to AAA today along with Hollimon. This all but ends the competition for bench spots, unless the Twins go outside the organization for a utility infielder. Dinkelman and Towles are still in the major league camp, but its not likely either one will make the team. The Twins reportedly told Butera they were going with two catchers.

This almost certainly means that Morneau is going to start the year as DH, leaving Doumit playing in the field where he will still be available to backup Mauer. With Morneau at DH, Mauer will also likely have to play some first base and/or outfield if they want to keep his bat in the lineup on days he doesn't catch. So the roster looks like this:

Mauer c/1b/of
Doumit c/1b/of
Morneau DH/1b
Parmelee 1b/of
Casilla 2b/ss
Carroll ss
Valencia 3b
Plouffe rf,lf,1b,2b?
Willingham lf
Span cf
Revere cf, rf, lf
Hughes 2b, 1b, 3b
Burroughs 3b, 1b

Plouffe was supposed to be moved to the outfield, but he is at second base in today's game. So it looks like they may be looking to have him play some infield. I said above that Dinkelman had no chance of making the roster, but Gardy could still surprise us by keeping him as the fourth outfielder/infielder instead of Burroughs or Revere. That seems very doubtful though. The more likely upset of the apple cart would be a legitimate shortstop from outside the organization to use as a utility infielder.

Update: I forgot to mention Brian Dozier. A decision to install him as the regular at shortstop would be another option. I don't think that is likely, but it would leave Carroll and Casilla to share second base and the utility role.

Ranking the Twins Drafts

The Twins will draft second in the June draft, the highest spot they have had since they took Joe Mauer as the number one choice in 2001. I thought it would useful to evaluate the drafts from 1994-2003. I will rank more recent drafts separately since, for the most part, its too early to really evaluate their overall success. Players in parenthesis were taken after the top 100 players.

2001 - Mauer, Morales, (Blackburn)
1999 - Bowen, Morneau
1994 - Walker, Pierzynski, (Koskie)
2002 - Span, Crain, (Neshek)
1997 - Cuddyer, LeCroy, (Romero)
2003 - Baker
1996 - Jones, Allen, (Ryan, Moeller, Lincoln)
2000 - (Kubel)
1995 - Redman, (Mientkiewicz)
1998 -

If you look at the 2004 draft below, you understand why its too early to evaluate recent drafts. The only "proven" players on the list are Tolbert and Perkins. That is assuming last year was proof for Perkins and Tolbert contributed enough to prove anything.

The rankings here, not surprisingly, are almost entirely in chronological order. And its not impossible the 2004 draft will move ahead of the 2005 draft. The players in parenthesis are players who are now recognized as significant prospects but were taken after the first 100 picks.

2005 - Garza, Slowey, Duensing, (Burnett, Tosoni)
2004 - Plouffe, Perkins, Swarzak, Waldrop, (Tolbert)
2006 - Parmelee, Benson, Robertson, (Dinkelman, Manship, Valencia)
2007 - Revere, Rams
2008 - Hicks, Guttierez, Lanigan
2009 - Gibson, (Herrmann, Dozier)
2010 - Wimmers, Goodrum
2011 - Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Boer

If you compare the two lists, the biggest difference is the presence of two MVP's, Mauer and Morneau, on the first list. Hicks is probably the only player on the second list who looks to have that kind of potential. Of course, Morneau didn't look likely to play at that level either shortly after he was drafted.

The real point of this is that the Twins have done a pretty good job with past drafts and it may be as late as 2020 before we can fully evaluate this summer's draft.

Baker and Marquis Scramble Bullpen Competition

The last couple days haven't really sorted anything out. The most important development was that Kyle Waldrop has a sore elbow. It may not be serious, but they are shutting him down and he probably has lost his immediate chance to make the roster.

The other important development was not in the bullpen, but will likely effect decisions there. Both Baker and Marquis now in question for opening day. Baker could start the year on the DL and Marquis on the bereavement list. That would open up two roster spots and Terry Ryan has said they will have 12 pitchers on the roster regardless. One of those could by Liam Hendricks, if they decide they need a starter immediately. But at least one roster spot would go to one of the bullpen candidates.

Maloney was stretched out today and went three innings, giving up a run on 4 hits and a walk. Burton followed him with two innings, giving up one run on a hit and walk. Fien also went two innings, giving up a run on 2 hits, while striking out 3. Burnett went one inning and gave up one unearned run on two hits. This was Burnett's second outing in a row, he gave up a home run and a walk in one inning on Wednesday.

Its possible the bullpen competition is over. If neither Baker nor Marquis are on the opening day roster, there is temporarily room for Gray, Burnett and Fien. But its more likely that Hendricks will take a spot as a starter, so the competition is for one permanent spot and one temporary.

There are a couple other considerations for the temporary spots. Maloney, Gray and Burnett are on the roster. Burton and Fien aren't, but the Twins have room for them. Burnett still has options, I don't believe the others do.

What that means is that Maloney and Gray would need to pass through waivers to be sent to the minors. That is also likely true for Burton and Fien once they are added to the roster. So its unlikely either of those two would win a temporary spot that would expose them to waivers when Baker and Marquis returned. If Burton and Fien make the roster, its likely with the idea they will stay in the majors when Baker and Marquis return. Gray will need to pass through waivers whether now or in the future. And Burnett can be optioned to the minors at any time.

Here is how I think things stand now:

Capps
Perkins
Duensing
Swarzak

Maloney
Burton

Gray
Burnett
Hendricks
Fien

Waldrop

Spots "Locked Down"

We have reached a point in the season, a little over a week from opening day, where impatient beat writers start setting the roster. They talk about about how guys competing have "locked down" a spot on the roster. But, in fact, no spot on the roster is a "lock" until Gardenhire (and Terry Ryan) decide it is. And they have another week to watch players before making that decision. The beat writers and many fans, including me, had Ben Revere set as the left fielder before spring training started. Now, Gardenhire apparently has decided to go in a different direction.

The same thing may, or may not, happen with the bullpen and bench spots over the next week. I have ranked the chances I think different players have for the bullpen and the bench. Some players are clearly "locks". They went into spring training as locks, like the veterans on the team, or they had spots set aside for them to lose only by severely under-performing this spring, like Plouffe and Swarzak.

But, for players in legitimate competition, there is still a week to go. Gardenhire is going to give a lot of weight to how they do this last week against better competition. That is particularly true for the bullpen guys. Reports have Burton and Maloney having broken away from the pack for two of the last three bullpen spots. But we have had those kinds of reports at this time of the year in the past and then the last week happened. Until we hear a player has won a spot from Gardenhire, we ought to have at least a bit of uncertainty. Because its likely Gardenhire still has some uncertainty and he still has a week of games to watch before he has to make final decisions.

Competition for the Twins Bench Jobs

Why is Brian Dinkelman still in the major league camp? There must be a lot of fans asking that question. We got the answer yesterday, he's still in camp because he is a good organization player who is pretty flexible. And that means he can play the last couple innings of a game in left, while Ben Revere gets some time in center field. He isn't competing for a job.

I thought it would be interesting to turn the list of players who are still in camp upside down and ask who is the least likely to make the team? Here is that list, and if you invert it you get the current standings in the race for the last four spots on the roster:

Dinkelman
Towles
Hollimon

Butera
Revere
Burroughs
Parmelee
Hughes


Since the last rankings Dozier, Benson, Florimon and Rivera were sent to the minor leagues. Florimon apparently is going to play at AA. Dozier, Rivera and Benson are likely to be at AAA.

I think Towles and Hollimon are likely in the same spot as Dinkelman. They are bench guys for spring training games, rather than in the competition for a spot on the 25 player roster. That means there are five players competing for 4 spots, assuming Mauer, Morneau, Casilla, Carroll, Valencia, Plouffe, Span, Willingham and Doumit are on the roster.

As I mentioned in a previous post, the decisions on which ones make it probably depend on Morneau and whether they decide to pick someone up on waivers as a backup shortstop. If Morneau DH's, Parmelee is at first and they need to find at bats for Doumit in the outfield. With Doumit in the field he can back up Mauer and Butera becomes less important. If Morneau is at first, Parmelee shares time with Plouffe in the outfield and, with Doumit at DH, there is more need for Butera as a backup catcher.

Either way, I don't see Revere having much of a role, but Gardenhire has seemed to indicate he intends to keep him as a fourth or fifth outfielder. If that is right, then Butera probably doesn't have a job.

Hughes and Burroughs are in competition for the extra infield spot, but if the Twins don't find a utility guy, they are both likely to make the roster.

Wednesday March 28th Update On Twins Bullpen Competition

Swarzak, Gray and Burton helped themselves with good outings today. Swarzak started and gave up three walks, including the last two batters he faced after getting 3.2 innings. Gray and Burton both followed with hitless/walkless performances, Gray going 2.1 innings and Burton 1. After the game Gardenhire apparently confirmed that Swarzak would be on the roster.

Gray got moved up in the rankings based on his performance today into the lead for the 7th spot, assuming Burton and Maloney make the roster. As I said yesterday, I am not sure you can read even that much into results. But Gray is on the roster and out of options, I believe, so he probably has a slight advantage anyway if everything else is equal.

There was also some talk from the beat writers that the Twins might keep another bullpen arm if they put Baker and/or Plouffe on the DL to start the year. That would allow them to delay a final decision for a couple weeks.

Here are the new rankings.

Capps
Perkins
Duensing
Swarzak

Maloney
Burton

Gray
Waldrop
Burnett
Fien

Hendricks

Previous rankings:
March 27th
Rankings 6 - March 25
Rankings 5 - March 24
Rankings 4 - March 22
Rankings 3
Rankings 2
Rankings 1

Bullpen Update - Tuesday March 27th

Wise, as expected, was sent to the minor league camp. Aside from that, there wasn't much that happened today to change the outlook for the bullpen.

With Liam Hendrick putting in 5 innings in relief of Scott Baker, Jeff Manship and Casey Fien were the only bullpen candidates who pitched in the regular game. Both got nicked a bit, but I doubt it was fatal for either one. I don't think either one helped themselves much either based on their results. Fien gave up one run on two doubles in one inning. Manship pitched 1 and 1/3 innings and gave up a hit and a walk.

UPDATE: Apparently Manship's performance was fatal. He was optioned to AAA Tuesday morning.

Based on that, Fien dropped a notch below Gray. Manship dropped behind Waldrop and Burnett mostly because he had an opportunity and didn't completely ace it. The truth is there is very little separating the five guys in the third group and results are probably only a very rough measure of how well they are doing.

Here is my updated rankings after Monday's game in four groups in order of how likely they are to fill out the bullpen:

Capps
Perkins
Duensing

Swarzak
Maloney
Burton

Waldrop
Burnett
Manship - update: optioned to AAA
Gray
Fien

Hendricks

Previous rankings:
Rankings 6 - March 25
Rankings 5 - March 24
Rankings 4 - March 22
Rankings 3
Rankings 2
Rankings 1

Twins Defense

Baseball Outsider is pointing out that the decision to move Jason Willingham to left and, presumably Revere to right field, the bench or AAA, leaves the Twins outfield defense unimproved from last year. The article assumes Ryan Doumit will be out in right field a lot. While I think its more likely that Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee are out there, his basic point is correct. If the Twins pitchers were looking forward to an outfield defense that was going to chase balls down, they aren't going to have it.

This is actually a continuation of the pattern since Tom Kelly left. There are probably only four players on the Twins you would call plus defenders, Mauer, Morneau, Span and Casilla. That list includes what are arguably the threes best offensive players. Carroll, Valencia, Willingham and whoever is in right field are all likely to be at least slightly below average for their position. And, of course, Ryan Doumit is defensively challenged as the backup behind the plate. That's the only reason he was available to the Twins as a free agent.

Aside from Revere, the only players still in camp competing for a job based on their defense are the third catchers and Pedro Florimon as a backup shortstop. Sean Burroughs is probably a plus defender at third base, but if he wins a job it will be as a veteran bat off the bench. Luke Hughes is defensively challenged, no matter where he plays. He will make the roster for his bat. Trevor Plouffe is in the outfield because he can't play shortstop. He may turn into a good defender, but he has almost no experience there right now. Chris Parmelee is not a particularly good defensive first baseman, but he will likely be playing in right field anyway where his defense was marginal even as a minor league player.

There was a point where it looked like the Twins bench might include two defensive specialists, Butera and Florimon along with Hughes and Plouffe as extra bats. With Revere as a regular in left field the Twins had the ability to put a good defensive team on the field. Now, if Parmelee, Hughes and Plouffe are on the roster, there is really only room for one defensive guy. That could be Ben Revere or it could be a third catcher or it could be a defensive infielder. In any case, the need for offense has once again trumped defensive improvements. I am sure we will hear a lot of grumbling from Gardenhire during the season, but the reality is he only values defense in its absence.

Rethinking The Roster Competition

A lot of assumptions, at least my assumptions, were thrown into disarray this weekend when Ron Gardenhire announced Willingham will be the starting left fielder, not right fielder. That left Ben Revere without a position. In addition, Terry Ryan indicated Chris Parmelee's bat had all but forced them to find him a spot on the roster and Parmelee was out in right field for three straight games. Also, Justin Morneau's lack of playing time at first became an issue. If Morneau is the everday DH, then Doumit's only remaining role is backup catcher with possible occasional appearances at first and in the outfield. That leaves a third catcher without much of a role.

So where does that put us?

There are now only nine players with spots set, Mauer, Doumit, Morneau, Casilla, Carroll, Valencia, Span, Willingham and Plouffe. That leaves 12 players competing or 4 openings with numerous possibilities for how they will be filled.

The puzzle is made very complicated by the flexibility of various players, but there are two likely options for how the four players are positioned:

first base,
outfield,
2 utility infielders

outfield,
catcher,
2 utility infielders;

Either way there remains the question of whether one of the two utility guys has to be able to play shortstop.

Here are the players who can play each position, although I doubt Benson or Dozier are really in the competition:

First base:
Parmelee
Hughes
Burroughs

Outfield:
Parmelee
Revere
Dinkelman
Benson

Utility Infielders:
Hughes
Burroughs
Florimon (ss)
Hollimon (ss)
Dozier (ss)

Third Catcher:
Butera
Rivera
Towles


Gardenhire made it clear that Morneau is a key element here. If he plays first, Doumit is the everyday DH and they need a third catcher and outfield space for Parmelee to play. If Morneau is the DH, Doumit is the backup catcher and Parmelee plays first. That leaves an opening in the outfield and no need for backup catcher. Either way, there remains a competition in the infield between Hughes, Burroughs, Florimon and Hollimon for two spots.

Based on that assessment here is how I see the current rankings in order of the likelihood the individuals will be on the roster:

Parmelee
Hughes
Revere
Burroughs
Florimon

Butera
Rivera
Towles
Hollimon
Dinkelman

Dozier
Benson

Five Competing for One Spot in Bullpen?

There are reports that Burton and Maloney are the front runners for two bullpen spots. I think Swarzak is still ahead of both of those two. Brendan Wise has had two rough outings and looks like he is no longer in the competition. That would leave five pitchers competing for one spot.

Saturday, Maloney got out all six batters he faced. Burnett gave up 3 hits, a walk and a run in two innings. Fien gave up a walk and a hit in one inning, but all the damage was done after an error that gave the Cardinals an extra out. Gray started the game and went two innings giving up two runs on two hits and a walk.

Sunday, Burton left the game after a rain delay when he came into the game without finishing a batter. Wise gave up two runs on three hits.

Here is my updated rankings after Sunday's game in four groups in order of how likely they are to fill out the bullpen:

Capps
Perkins
Duensing

Swarzak
Maloney
Burton

Manship
Waldrop
Burnett
Fien
Gray

Wise
Hendricks

Previous rankings:
Rankings 5 - March 24
Rankings 4 - March 22
Rankings 3
Rankings 2
Rankings 1

No Third Catcher?

This may seem odd, but Justin Morneau's health could cost Drew Butera his job as backup catcher. Since he was signed as a free agent, Ryan Doumit's role has been describe as backup catcher and everyday DH. Joe Mauer was expected to DH on most days when Doumit was catching. The likely role of the third catcher was to give one of those two a complete day off, while allowing the other one to DH.

Now there is discussion of Morneau being used extensively, or even exclusively, as a DH. The only way Morneau can DH with both Doumit and Mauer still in the lineup is if one is at first base and the other is behind the plate. If Joe Mauer catches 120+ games, it is doubtful the Twins are comfortable with Doumit playing first base that many times. Doumit's playing time is going to be mostly behind the plate. It also means you can give on of those two a day off by having someone else play first. Enter a variety of options, most notably Chris Parmelee.

In short, with Doumit on the bench, instead of the everyday DH, a third catcher makes a lot less sense. With Parmelee forcing his way on the roster and Morneau's health Butera's job may be disappearing.

Revere to Minors?

The beat writers are reporting Ron Gardenhire has decided Willingham will play left field. That leaves right field open with three apparent candidates, Plouffe, Revere and Parmelee. It sounds like Parmelee has played himself on to the roster and Revere may have played his way off. Parmelee impressed with his performance last fall and that has carried over into spring training. He is primarily considered a first baseman, but has also played the outfield in the minor leagues on a semi-regular basis.

The problem the Twins are faced with is several young players who may be ready to contribute at the major league level, but no place for them to play every day. Brian Dozier, at least until his recent slump, was one of those. Parmelee is another. Its possible Revere has now moved behind Parmelee and no longer has a full time position. The Twins generally don't like to have young players sit on the major league bench. If they can't win a regular spot, they get sent to AAA to play every day.

The roster situation is made more complicated by Justin Morneau's status. If he plays first base, then there isn't much room for Parmelee there. On the other hand, if they decide Morneau is primarily limited to DH whether by choice or necessity, they need someone to play first base on a regular basis rather than temporary stop gaps like Doumit, Hughes or Plouffe.

If Parmelee is at first, then Revere can play on a semi-regular basis mixed among all three outfield positions. But if Parmelee isn't at first, its likely he is going to share right field with the right-handed hitting Trevor Plouffe. That leaves Revere as the odd man out.

Morneau

Its been over a week since Justin Morneau played in the field at first base and his lack of playing time is causing a stir of speculation in the media. Twins GM Terry Ryan insists the reason Morneau is DH'ing instead of playing first is to give him more at bats. He says they aren't worried about Morneau's defense at first. Manager Ron Gardenhire has said the same thing about Morneau's defense, but has also expressed fear that Morneau might get hurt again. Morneau, who in the past has rejected being a permanent DH, allows how that might be possible if it is necessary to keep him in the lineup. But he has also said if he isn't ready to play first base, then he isn't ready to DH either.

Morneau's slow recovery from his concussion over the last two years obviously has created a lot of uncertainty. But if we take the Twin statements at face value, the real issue is not whether Morneau will play first or DH. Its whether he is recovered enough to play at all. Gardenhire recognizes that if Morneau's concussion symptoms return, the decision about Morneau is taken out of their hands. League rules will require that he get a medical clearance again before resuming any baseball activities. So its not surprising that he is nervous about sticking Morneau in the field until he has to.

The real elephant in the room is that, until yesterday, Morneau had not been hitting this spring. So it makes perfect sense that the Twins are focused on getting him as many at bats as possible. Once his bat comes around, they may need to consider the question of whether the lineup is stronger with him DH'ing or at first base. But, if his struggles at the plate continue, the issue of whether he can play first base is moot. The real issue is not whether Morneau has recovered enough to play first, its whether he will have recovered well enough to hit in the major leagues. If not, he isn't in the lineup anywhere.

Update of Twins Bullpen Competition

Jeff Manship had a rough game Friday. In his first inning, he gave up a solo home run. But it was his second inning where things really fell apart as he failed to get a single out. To be fair, there was an error in there, but he left the game with the score tied and runners on first and second. Jarod Burton came in to relieve him and let both runners score while giving up one hit. Kyle Waldrop went 1-2-3 in the last inning for the Twins.

As a result Burton moved ahead of Manship in the rankings and Maloney and Waldrop moved ahead of both of them in the second group.

Swarzak struggled a bit in his last appearance and dropped into the second group. I still think he is close to a lock, but he is not really in the same category as the top three.

Here are the new rankings the morning of Saturday March 24. They are divided into 4 groups in order of likelihood they will make the roster:

Capps
Perkins
Duensing

Swarzak
Burnett
Maloney
Waldrop
Burton
Manship

Gray
Fien
Wise

Hendriks


Previous rankings:
Rankings 4 - March 22
Rankings 3
Rankings 2
Rankings 1

Liriano

Liriano had another good start Friday, which will no doubt get the Twins Internet buzzing with excitement. I am not sure it should. Liriano has repeatedly had patches of brilliance. His problem has been inconsistency. A period of brilliance is followed by a rough patch when he gets out of whack. Until he strings together two or three months of these kinds of results, I think it would be wise to assume that pattern will occur again.

This is likely Liriano's last year with the Twins. If he is outstanding, its possible they might make him a one year offer that gets them draft compensation. If they aren't in the pennant race, they may deal him at the trade deadline. But regardless of how he pitches, I think it would be a mistake to sign him to a long term contract. There is nothing he can do this year that would provide any assurance he will be a reliable guy at the top of the rotation for the next few years.

Utility Infielder and other Twins Roster Competition

Here are the players still in the Twins spring training camp competing for the last three spots on the roster as position players. The likely choices are a catcher, a middle infielder and a utility guy. They area grouped by likelihood they will make the team. There are some changes from my previous evaluation.

To start Chang, Lehman and Carson were sent to the minor league camp. The only mild surprise there is Change. With a middle infield spot open, I expected him to stick around for a while.

I moved Butera ahead of Hughes. I think both these guys will be on the roster, but its possible Burroughs could beat out Hughes. I see little evidence that Towles or Rivera would move ahead of Butera. Although Butera was not catching today when Pavano pitched, something that was sort of a given the last couple seasons.

Hollimon moved up ahead of Burroughs largely because Ron Gardenhire mentioned him as a shortstop candidate and there were reports that he was getting work there in camp. I had assumed that his defense was not really shortstop material. That apparently is not entirely the case.

Gardenhire made it clear Florimon is a better shortstop. In fact, he seemed to indicate Florimon is better than anyone else in camp defensively. It appears he can't hit. But that may not be a fatal problem for a utility player. The Twins will have Hughes/Burroughs and Plouffe as bats on the bench. They may put a premium on defense for the last spot.

Dozier moved down based on comments by Gardenhire that he would only make the team as a regular. It sounds like he is going to AAA to wait for an opening. The other thing is that Gardenhire also said that Parmelee is closest to ready of any of the prospects trying to make the jump from AA last year. Terry Ryan confirmed the problem with Benson is that he needs to learn not to swing at bad pitches. That is a lot harder to fix successfully than Parmelee's footwork at first. Dinkelman is ahead of all three because he is highly flexible. If an outfielder gets hurt, he is the most likely candidate to take the 4th outfielder spot. An injury to one of four outfielders is a lot more likely than Carroll or Casilla going down and opening a spot for Dozier.

I should mention, its likely that the Twins will look for a veteran middle infielder rather than relying on Florimon or Hollimon as the backup at shortstop.

Butera
Hughes

Florimon
Hollimon
Burroughs
Rivera
Towles

Dinkelman
Parmelee
Dozier
Benson

Bullpen Competition Update

I wasn't going to do an update until after today's game but the Twins have made several moves related to the bullpen. Doyle, not surprisingly, was sent back to the White Sox. And this morning Dumatrait and Deduno were sent to minor league camp.

Wednesday's game had four relief appearances. Maloney, Gray, Deduno and Fein. Deduno was the only one to give up a run. Maloney went two innings and gave up a hit and a walk while striking out three. Gray pitched a 1-2-3 inning without a ball leaving the infield. Fein faced three batters, giving up a ground ball single and then erasing the runner on a double play.

Hendriks started the game and went four innings. It looks like the Twins are counting on him as the backup plan if Baker can't pitch to start the season.

We haven't seen Wise for a while, but I haven't seen that he was sent to the minors so he is still on the list.

UPDATE: After Thursday March 22nd Game

Capps, Perkins and Duensing pitched. Perkins struggled, but I don't think this game changed anything. Wise pitched the last two innings and gave up a walk and two run homer. I'm not sure that eliminates him from competition but he remains at the bottom of the list.

Here are the rankings the morning of Thursday March 22. They are divided into 4 groups in order of likelihood they will make the roster:

Capps
Perkins
Duensing
Swarzak

Burnett
Manship
Burton
Maloney
Waldrop
Gray
Fien

Wise

Hendriks


Previous rankings:
Rankings 3
Rankings 2
Rankings 1

Twins Best Young Players

Over the last few years, if you read the STRIB, you would think the Twins organization was devoid of prospects in its upper level. The Twins beat writers and columnists have consistently sensationalized this whole discussion. Underestimating many players coming through the system, while periodically hyping prospects with flaws and then criticizing them for not living up to the hype. There are three myths repeated about the Twins:

1) The Twins move prospects slowly.
2) The Twins have no prospects in the top of their system.
3) Gardenhire is reluctant to give prospects a chance.

The facts are different. The Twins have consistently been among the younger teams in baseball even while winning division championships and despite having aging players like Jim Thome and Joe Nathan on the roster. You wouldn't know it to read the STRIB and its resident bloggers and beat writers.

The break between "young" player and a guy in his prime is usually 27 or 28. After that point you don't expect to see much improvement, although that isn't always true. So lets divide the Twins young players who were 27 or younger last year into three categories: established veterans who have played an entire season in the major leagues, developing players with significant major league opportunities and prospects likely to start at AAA and with, at most, limited experience.


Veterans:
Denard Span
Matt Capps
Francisco Liriano
Alex Casilla
Danny Valencia
Drew Butera

Developing Players:
Ben Revere
Trevor Plouffe
Alex Burnett
Anthony Swarzak
Luke Hughes
Jeff Manship
Rene Tosoni
Brian Dinkelman

Prospects:
Chris Parmelee
Brian Dozier
Carlos Guttierez
Deolis Guerra
Lester Oliveros
Liam Hendricks
Joe Benson
Kyle Waldrop
Scott Diamond
Tyler Robertson

That's 24 players. Of course last year provided a lot of opportunities for young players to get major league experience and some players on that list will never contribute much. But you could have made a similar list for the last few seasons. Players like Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing and Joe Mauer would have been on the list last year.

What it demonstrates is that, despite repeated stories to the contrary, the Twins system has continued to churn out players for the major league team. The "Twins model" of developing players from within is alive and well. They continue to move players into big league uniforms once they are ready and, often, before they have developed their full potential. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Those Other Non-roster Guys

There are several non-roster players still in spring training who appear unlikely to win jobs. Who are they and why are they still around?

Catcher:

Danny Lehman

Lehman is an organization guy. He may be around until the start of the season as a reward for his time in the organization. He is there because the Twins have a lot of pitchers and need people to catch them. His role is as minor league catcher, likely at AA if the Twins keep Towles and Rivere.


Outfielders:

Brian Dinkelman,

Dinkelman is primarily an outfielder, but can also play a little second base. Its that flexibility that makes him a good bench guy. That got him at bats last year when the Twins were plagued by injuries. He was drafted by the Twins. His role this year is as depth at AAA.


Matt Carson

He was signed as a minor league free agent after spending time in several other organizations. He got some major league time with Oakland in 2009 and 2010. Like Dinkelman, he is depth at AAA.

Unlike Lehman, Dinkelman and Carson are likely auditioning for playing time if someone gets hurt. I suspect if they have an everyday position available Benson or Tosoni will get a callup ahead of them. But if they need someone to be a bat off the bench and occasionally spell a regular, Dinkelman or Carson would get the call. Dinkelman's ability to play second could play a role here as well if Hughes gets hurt or takes a regular spot for someone who is.

Twins Roster Competition

I have been doing updates of the bullpen competition. I thought it might be useful to do the same thing with the roster.

There are four groups below in descending order of how likely they are to be on the roster. Hughes and Butera probably aren't far out of the first group. The third group is the folks still competing for an infield spot followed by the two catchers competing for Butera's spot. The last group are longshots to be on the roster. Dozier probably has the best shot, but he will have to beat out Carroll or Casilla for a starting spot. That is unlikely.

Mauer
Mourneau
Casilla
Carroll
Valencia
Willingham
Span
Revere
Doumit
Plouffe

Hughes
Butera

Florimon
Chang
Burroughs
Hollimon
Rivera
Towles

Dozier
Dinkelman
Carson
Parmelee
Benson
Lehman

UPDATE 3-22-2012
Carson, Lehman and Chang sent to minors

Dozier, this year's Luke Hughes

Are the Twins seriously considering keeping Brian Dozier on the roster? If you are reading the local beat writers you would think so. But most of this seems to be their own speculation. Terry Ryan says they would consider having a guy bypass AAA. But Terry Ryan has always said that when asked about some young prospect in camp. Usually the comment is combined, as it was here, with some statement about the prospect needing to play every day.

Last year the story of the spring was Luke Hughes. As expected, despite the beat writers stories, Hughes was sent to the minors to start the season. He was called up when Nishioka got hurt.

Dozier is very likely the same story. The Twins seem to think Dozier can play shortstop in the big leagues, which makes him a better prospect than Hughes. But they just signed Jamey Carroll to provide themselves with veteran stability. It seems unlikely that they are going to jump in an entirely different direction based on a good spring training.

The apparent motivation for making that move, according to the bloggers and beat writers, would be to strengthen the utility infielder position. This idea gained credence when they sent Nishioka to AAA. But it is hard to imagine the Twins weakening themselves at shortstop in order to patch a weakness at the end of the bench.

Of course, its possible they will become convinced Dozier is better than either Carroll or Casilla and give him a major league job. But that has nothing to do with Nishioka or any need for a utility infielder. If Dozier wins a spot on the roster, its because the team is convinced he is already the best shortstop in camp. I think that is an longshot, at best.

Bullpen Rankings March 20th Update

The bullpen did pretty well today. Burton, Burnett each walked a batter, Manship and Swarzak gave up a hit each and Waldrop gave up a run on two hits. Each of them pitched one inning. There was a report that Swarzak and Maloney were going to be stretched out as potential starters in case Baker isn't ready to start, but Swarzak's single inning would seem to contradict that. Burnett has now had two good outings in a row after a rough start.

One other note. Some local writers have suggested that whether a player is on the 40 player roster will be a factor in the decisions. I doubt that. For one thing, the Twins will have an open spot available. But more important, they are going to take the best pitchers regardless of their roster status.

Here are the rankings after Monday March 19th game. They are divided into 4 groups in order of likelihood they will make the roster:

Capps
Perkins
Duensing
Swarzak

Burnett
Manship
Burton
Waldrop
Maloney

Gray
Dumatrait
Deduno
Fien
Wise

Doyle
Hendriks


Previous rankings:
Rankings 2
Rankings 1

Nishioka

A bunch of the beat writers are saying "I wasn't surprised" that Nishioka was sent down, only by the timing. If that is true, I have to think the Twins have a viable plan B in place. One idea is that they are going to find a middle infielder outside the organization. But its hard to believe the Twins waited until Nishioka was sent out, if that was the plan B. Its possible they have been having talks with other teams and that the next shoe will drop soon.

Some people have suggested Brian Dozier would take the everyday shortstop spot with either Casilla or Carroll moving to the utility role. If that is a real possibility we will soon see those two trading positions on occasion.

Another possible scenario is that the Twins are willing to use Plouffe and Casilla as the backups at shortstop. That creates an opening for another bench player like Burroughs, Dinkelman or Hollimon.

Finally, there is what is probably the most likely scenario. Florimon or Chang are now competing for the utility spot. Florimon's skill at shortstop puts him a step ahead of Chang. But Chang has more experience.

Whatever happens, spring training has become a little more interesting.

Competition for the Twins Bench Spots

There are ten players who are locks to be on the roster, assuming they are healthy, Mauer, Morneau, Casilla, Carroll, Valencia, Willingham, Span, Revere, Doumit and Plouffe. Assuming the Twins carry 12 pitchers, there are three additional bench spots where there might be some competition. As I mentioned earlier, playing time can be a pretty good indicator of how much the staff thinks of players. Here are the positions and the number of official plate appearances each player has this spring:

Utility Infielder (shortstops):
28 - Nishioka
19 - Dozier
15 - Florimon
12 - Chang

Utility player (non-shortstops or very limited at shortstop):
27 - Hughes
24 - Burroughs
19 - Dinkelman
16 - Hollimon

Third catcher:
11 - Butera
9 - Rivera
9 - Towles

My guess is that Dozier is not a candidate for a bench job. Chang has played only 3 innings at shortstop this spring. If Nishioka has any real competition in camp, its likley Florimon. Of course Casilla can play shortstop too, so its possible the Twins could get by without a bench guy who can slide in there. Its also possible they could grab somebody off waivers or make a trade. Right now it looks like Nishioka is the utility guy.

Hughes is out of options, so I think he is going to be given every chance to win a spot. Hughes and Hollimon have played second, first and third this spring. Burroughs has played strictly at third. Dinkelman has one game at second, but has spent most of his time in the outfield. Hollimon has had a hot spring, but I still think this is Hughes spot to lose.

The catcher's plate appearances don't mean a lot. The third catcher is going to be chosen primarily for his defense. The only question is whether they think Butera is as completely over-matched at the plate as he appeared last year. Rivera's defense makes him a potential replacement, but his bat may not be much different. Towles defense is suspect. He needs to be a significant offensive force and he is not getting at bats that would let him demonstrate that.

Right now, it looks like nothing much has changed in spring training. Nishioka, Hughes and Butera are likely to fill out the bench. But going forward, watch to see how many at bats Florimon is getting. If he starts to play a lot that may be an indication they are looking for an alternative to Nishioka.

Playing time alone does not mean a player is in the hunt for a major league job. It is an indicator. But players like Dozier, Parmelee and Benson are getting at bats so the major league staff can figure out how close they are to being ready to help if someone gets hurt. That is also true of many of the minor league veterans in camp. They are showing what they can do if an opportunity opens up during the season. I think the coaching staff is pretty much set on who is going to be on the bench to start the season and Nishioka is the only one in any danger of losing his spot.

UPDATE: Nishioka was optioned to AAA this morning. Shortstops still in camp are Florimon, Chang and Dozier. Watch for Casilla getting some time at shortstop, that would add to the chances of a non-shortstop getting a spot.

The Bullpen Competition

Below is an updated list of the pitchers who are in competition for Twins bullpen spots. Earlier rankings and comments can be found here.

Alex Burnett finally had a good spring outing which moved him up into the top contestants for a final spot. I think he is someone the Twins would like to take north. He has the experience and the stuff to pitch in the major leagues. I don't think they will have to be convinced he has it harnessed to win a bullpen spot. But he can't prove he doesn't either and that was the direction things had been going.

Manship, Maloney both also pitched well Saturday.

Waldrop, and Bulger, Walters had decent outings against Boston Friday night, although Bulger gave up a run in two innings. Thompson gave up a couple hits in one inning of work while also getting a couple strikeouts.

In Friday's afternoon game against Baltimore the pitchers did less well. Gutierrez and Burton both got tagged for runs and Vasquez gave up a couple hits in one inning. Burton gave up 2 walk and 2 hits while going 2 innings and move down the list as a result.

Thursday's game was a different story. Swarzak, Dumatrait and Wise all gave up three runs each. Perdomo helped himself by going one inning with no damage and two strikeouts.

There are still a lot of candidates out there and most of them seem to be getting the job done. With Gardy gone, I think the process of sending guys to the minors is probably stalled anyway. But, so far, there aren't many guys making those choices easy. These last couple weeks should be interesting.

UPDATE Sunday evening: Fien struck out all three batters he faced today. Gray and Deduno each pitched a 1-2-3 inning. Perdomo gave up a hit in one inning. No one made the coaches job easier.

UPATE Monday Morning: Sent to minors Gutierrez, Walters, Bulger, Perdomo, D. Thompson, Vasquez

Here are the rankings as of Sunday morning, March 18th:


Capps
Perkins
Duensing
Swarzak

Manship
Burnett
Waldrop
Maloney
Burton

Gray
Dumatrait
Doyle

Deduno
Fien
Wise
Hendriks

Sent to minors 3/19/2002:
Gutierrez
Walters
Bulger
Perdomo
D. Thompson
Vasquez

Sent to minors 3/15/2012:
Guerra
Robertson
Oliveros
Diamond
A. Thompson

Baker Looks Good

Reports out of Fort Myers are that Scott Baker threw without problems today, but not at full speed. He will do a bullpen Monday. If that goes well, he will be ready for his next start on Thursday March 22nd. He will only have missed one start with two weeks to go in spring training. If there are no further setbacks, he will very likely be ready to pitch the home opener on April 9th.

If he does have a setback, there is still some wiggle room for him to get in three starts before spring training ends. But at that point it becomes more likely the Twins will use the day off after the home opener to skip his start. His first start wouldn't come until April 15th*. In any case, unless there is a serious setback, it does not look like the Twins are going to have to find someone to replace him in the rotation.

*UPDATE: To clarify that, April 15th is the first date when the Twins will need a 5th starter. Since everyone in the rotation will have had a day off, Baker could start earlier than the 15th if he is ready and they want to position him higher in the rotation.

Baker and the Twins Rotation

Its easy to over-react to the news that Scott Baker is having a hard time getting loose and experiencing some arm pain. But in some ways, its impossible not to overreact. Last year the Twins went into the season with what looked like a deep rotation after a spring competition among six veteran starters. They had their sixth starter, Kevin Slowey, in the bullpen and Anthony Swarzak as a swing man behind him. In addition they had Kyle Gibson apparently almost ready at AAA. That depth eventually evaporated and the Twins crash the last two months of the season is probably attributable to most of the rotation being on the DL.

This year, the Twins do not have any depth. The Twins sent last year's rule 5 guy, Scott Diamond, to the minor leagues this morning and then watched this year's rule 5 guy, Terry Doyle, get lit up by the Pirates. Swarzak came in to relieve him and did better than Doyle, but it was still not good. Liam Hendricks gets a start tomorrow, but he does not look like nearly as strong a prospect as Gibson was last year. After that, there are some folks who previously failed as starters competing for bullpen spots. Its possible they can stretch out Brian Duensing, but that leaves the bullpen with another hole.

In short, the Twins don't really have a solid sixth starter. If Baker or any of the other guys in the rotation can't pitch, its likely the Twins will end up holding auditions among a group of questionable replacements. It could turn into a rough spring start while they sort things out.

Twins Bullpen Competition - Updated 3/15

March 15 comments: The Twins sent several players over to the minor league camp. Hendricks still being in camp is a bit of a surprise, but with reports that Baker's arm is acting up we may see some of the candidates for sixth starter kept around for a while. So the decision to send Diamond over to the minor leagues may indicate they are not high on him. On the other hand, it could be an indication that they want to stretch him out as a starter and he wasn't going to get that opportunity in the major league camp with innings going to Doyle, Hendricks and Swarzak as potential replacements for Baker.

Guerra, Robertson and Oliveros are all young talents who are not ready to take a spot yet. None of them are guys who were going to be used as mop-up pitchers in the big leagues.

Manship, Waldrop and Gray moved up in the rankings. They were in games early and pitched pretty well. Burnett and Doyle dropped after bad outings. Doyle is being used as a starter and his role bullpen role, if any, is as a long relief mopup guy. Burnett has talent, but he probably isn't going to get too many more chances to show he can use it with all the other pitchers in camp.


Below is an updated list of the pitchers who are in competition for Twins bullpen spots.

Here is a ranking as of (March 15, 2012):

Capps
Perkins
Duensing
Swarzak

Burton
Manship
Gray
Waldrop
Maloney
Dumatrait

Burnett
Gutierrez
Perdomo
Doyle

Bulger
Deduno
Fien

D.Thompson
Vasquez
Walters
Wise
Hendriks


Sent to minors 3/15/2012:
Guerra
Robertson
Oliveros
Diamond
A. Thompson

I will continue to update this as decisions get made and performance changes the rankings.

March 13 introduction: I think we can expect this list to start getting shorter soon as players are sent over to the minor league camp. And its important to remember, its not the first two weeks, its the last couple weeks of spring training when things really matter. Right now pitchers are still getting their innings in and working on stuff. And they are facing a lot of minor league hitters. Results may or may not reflect how well the coaching staff thinks they are doing.


March 13 comments: This list is still based largely on last season, not spring training performances. Burnett had a terrible outing today, but he still has a couple weeks to work through that. Dumatrait ended the year with the Twins. Someone is going to have to beat him out for a job. Its likely someone will. Burton is ahead of those two only because there has been some buzz about how well he has done so far. Maloney has been doing well, but Diamond, Doyle and Waldrop are ahead of him simply because of their status in the organization. All three are on the roster. I expect Hendricks and Guerra will head over to the minor league camp. In short, this is a VERY preliminary look.

Is Nishioka Winning a Job?

In general, the players really in competition for major league jobs will get the most plate appearances in spring training. They want players to see major league competition, not the other teams minor leaguers, so it also matters when a player gets his chances. But the result of that is somewhat the same. Players who start games get 2 or 3 at bats and the guys who hit later, often only get 1 or 2.

So I thought it would be interesting to look at where things stood so far in terms of plate appearances. Here are the Twins players who have received the most plate appearances in regular games so far in spring training.

24 - Willingham
23 - Morneau
22 - Nishioka
21 - Doumit, Plouffe, Revere
20 - Burroughs, Casilla, Valencia, Carroll
19 - Mauer, Parmelee, Span

17 - Benson, Hughes, Dinkleman, Pearce

15 - Dozier, Mastroianni

13 - Bates, Tosoni

11 - Florimon
<10 - Everyone else

If you look at that first group there aren't many surprises. Parmelee and Burroughs are the only players not likely to be on the major league roster.

What is surprising is none of the players that would appear to be competition for Nishioka are getting a lot of plate appearances. Florimon is the only one listed above, although both Chang and Holiman have 9 plate appearances. That may be an indication that one alternative to Nishioka is go without a true utility guy. Burroughs, Plouffe and Hughes could back up at third, shortstop and second respectively. Its also possible Nishioka has shown enough in camp that they think he is likely to win the job.

Eating Innings is Key to Twins Pitching Recovery

Perhaps the central issue for the Twins chances of being competitive this year is the state of the rotation. It was the rotation that made the Twins look like they would get back into the division race last year going into the allstar break. It was the collapse of the rotation that not only ended that run but was a major contributor as the team slid to 99 losses instead of soaring to 99 wins.

I think it is interesting to look at how Twins pitchers performed the last three years. Here they are ranked by innings pitched (I will get to the reason for using IP later in the post.)

2011
Pavano 222
Duensing 162
Blackburn 148
Baker 135
Liriano 134
Swarzak 102 (64 as starter)
Slowey 59
Total: 924


2010
Pavano 221
Liriano 192
Baker 170
Blackburn 161
Slowey 155
Duensing 130 (86 as starter)
Total: 985

2009
Blackburn 206
Baker 200
Liriano 137
Perkins 96
Slowey 90
Duensing 84
Pavano 74
Swarzak 59
Total: 946

A typical team will have somewhere around 1440 innings pitched each year. Most of those outs will be made while the starters are pitching. But every out the starters don't get will have to be gotten by some other pitcher. In most cases that is not the next best pitcher, but the least worse pitcher available. As the number of outs the starters get decline, the innings get pushed down the bullpen ladder. Some of the outs may get taken by better pitchers, but they will likely be pitching at below their optimum performance. Most of the innings will be picked up by the last guy in the bullpen.

So those outs have to be gotten by pitchers who fit one of two categories. One is guys who are overworked compared to how they would have been used. The other is guys who otherwise would have been sitting on the end of the bullpen bench, released or pitching in the minor leagues. In general, none of those pitchers are going to be optimal. And the more innings they have to pitch, the worse the team's pitching is going to be.

So in 2011 who might have got those extra outs (61 IP) for the Twins?

Chuck James 10 IP/ 6.10 ERA
Kyle Waldrop 11 IP/ 5.73 ERA,
Dusty Hughes 12.2 IP/ 9.95 ERA
Jim Hoey 24.2 IP/ 5.47 ERA
Jeff Manship 3.1 IP/ 8.10 ERA
Kevin Slowey 14.2 IP/ 4.91 ERA

And that doesn't include any innings pitched by overworked pitchers higher in the bullpen heirarchy.

The point here is that the Twins focus on "innings eaters" for the rotation is well placed. Because a guy who pitches only 134 innings, like Liriano last year, requires you to give innings to a reliever who otherwise would have been at AAA. Its better to have a Pavano pitching 222 innings than even a "lights out" 134 innings from a Liriano combined with 88 innings from someone pitching like Dusty Hughes. Innings pitched is the key determinant of a starter's value.

Top Twins Prospects, Almost Ready

I thought it would be interesting to make a list of the top Twins prospects who might be ready to contribute this year and next:

Kyle Gibson - Gibson is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but should be pitching in the minor leagues some time in July or August. He is at the top of this list because the Twins are likely to have several openings in the rotation in 2013 and he will likely take one of them. He projects as a solid number two starter.

Alex Wimmer - Wimmer was supposed to be on the fast track, but he fell off the rails in his first start at Fort Myers last season when he was totally unable to find the plate. He came back at the end of the season and pitched well. He kept on that track during the fall instructional league. He may be ready by next spring, although I doubt the Twins are going to rush him after the experience last year. His upside is a solid starter in the top/middle of the rotation.

Carlos Gutierrez - Gutierrez has a mid-90's sinker that is devastating. When he can get his other pitches over the plate consistently he will be in the Twins bullpen. That could be this spring. His upside is a potential closer candidate.

Delios Guerra - I think think 2012 is Guerra's last option year, so he will need to be in the big leagues next season. He is still very young and probably not ready just yet but we might see him before the end of the season. He projects as setup guy or potential closer.

Brian Dozier - Dozier is close to ready whether that is as a shortstop is still a question I think. He will start the year at AAA, but we may see him this year if Casilla or Carroll get hurt. He projects as a middle infielder with a decent bat that will play better at shortstop than second base.

Chris Parmelee - Parmelee turned fans heads last fall. His promotion to the big leagues requires an opening. He projects as a starting first baseman with mid-range power for the position and probably above average batting average.

Oliveros - Oliveros is a hard thrower with a chance at a bullpen spot out of spring training. He is still very young, so it is more likely he will start the season at AAA.

Scott Diamond - Diamond is one of the candidates for the rotation next year. His chances this year probably depend on the major league rotation's health. He projects as a middle/low starter.

Doyle - Doyle is a rule 5 guy who needs to be kept on the roster. He will either be in the bullpen to start the year or likely gone. His long term role is as a starter, which is why the Twins grabbed him in the rule 5 draft.

Aaron Hicks - Hicks is a long shot to contribute in the big leagues this year. But if he puts it together at AA, he could be a September callup. He is on this list because he has the kind of tools that would let him force his way onto the major league roster once he is ready.

Other candidates:
Joe Benson - I remain convinced that his strikeouts indicate a fatal flaw. But he has been out in center field this spring. If he can play there, his power will likely get him a roster spot sometime.

Mastroianni - He is another version of Ben Revere, with a better arm. He will start the year at AAA, but could be in the big leagues if there is a demand for a center fielder.

Liam Hendricks - I am not sure that Hendricks has the stuff to pitch in the big leagues. But he is a candidate for the rotation if he does and will likely get a chance to win a spot next spring.

Robertson - Robertson role is as a setup guy in the bullpen. He will start the year at AAA, but he could get a call up if he does well.

Kyle Waldrop - Waldrop seems to be getting a lot of love in the Twins camp. He has a shot at the bullpen this spring and we will likely see him at some point this year. Projects as a middle reliever.

There are probably some other guys who have shots if someone gets hurt or falls on their face. In any case, that top ten list, combined with the five who missed it, makes a lie of the idea that the Twins lack talent at the top of their system. They don't have any can't miss superstars ready to play this spring. But they have quite a few players who will become household names for Twins fans in the future.

Perkins and Twins Payroll

There have been a lot of complaints about how the Twins are spending, or more accurately not spending, the additional money they are getting with their new stadium. Today's signing of Glen Perkins is another example of the Twins payroll strategy. They are going to invest money in hanging on to players they develop, rather than investing huge sums in attracting expensive free agents.

Other potential targets for long term contracts or extensions this season would be Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Scott Baker and Alexi Casilla. Depending on how they do this season, Ryan Doumit and Jason Marquis could also be offered extensions beyond the one year deals they signed. Together that group could easily eat up whatever difference there is in this year's payroll compared to last years.

I think this strategy makes sense. In general, high priced free agents are being paid for their past performance. They get a multi year contract that ends with them being overpaid for their declining years. The Twins are not going to fall into that trap very easily. Mauer and Morneau may end up there, but they are core players whose value to the franchise extends beyond their performance on the field.

The Spring Training Competitions

There are several position competitions people are watching. As is typical in spring training, some of those competitions are real. Others are invented by enthusiastic media looking for stories. Here is may take on the competition for this year's Twins:

Third Catcher: I think this is really a non-issue. Drew Butera is going to be the third catcher, assuming there is a third catcher. Butera is a top flight defensive catcher who can't hit a lick. Butera's lack of offense is what makes people believe there is a competition here.

The purported competion for the third catching spot are Rene Rivera and JR Towles. Like Butera, Rivera is a solid defensive catcher who can't hit. Rivera was the AAA backup last year and there is little reason to think that anything has changed.

Towles is interesting to the media because he actually appeared on some top prospect lists a few years ago. He projects as a better hitter than the other two, but he hasn't actually hit much better in his big league career with Houston. His experience with hitters is in the National League and he has never been considered a great defender. In short, he can't hit nearly as well as Doumit nor defend nearly as well as Butera. That makes him a AAA backup.

Middle Infield: The default here is for Tsyoshi Nishioka to be the backup. That is largely based on his big contract and the hope of getting some return on the investment. While his contract will be a factor, he is going to have to show he has some major league skills. The most important issue as a utility guy will be his defense. If Gardy is satisfied he can hold his own at shortstop and second, he will get the job. If not, the contract won't keep him in the big leagues.

The key issue here is a backup at shortstop. Its possible the Twins would have Alexi Casilla move over to spell Carroll at shortstop, but I think it is unlikely they will go into the season with that as the plan. That means that guys like Luke Hughes and Sean Burroughs are not really competing for this spot. They might open another spot for those guys by relying on Trevor Plouffe as the backup at shortstop. But, since they have decided Plouffe's future is in the outfield, its unlikely they will assign him a regular role elsewhere.

That means the potential shortstops in camp are Ray Chang, Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier. Any of these three have some tools that make them potential candidates as the utility guy. Chang has the most experience, but the least upside. Florimon and Dozier are both prospects with almost no experience above AA. Strangely, the more highly they think of Dozier, I think the less likely he is to win a utility job. If they see him as a potential future major league shortstop they are going to want him playing every day, not sitting on the major league bench. Florimon is supposed to be a top defender and he projects as a utility guy in the major leagues. He could win the job, but the most likely alternative to Nishioka would appear to be Chang.

Third Base: Sean Burroughs is a great story, but I think the idea he is serious competition for Danny Valencia is media hype. Valencia would have to lose the job in spring training by showing further decline on both defense and offense. It doesn't sound like that is going to happen. For all of Sean Burroughs decline into drug and alcohol abuse, he had a lot of opportunities in the big leagues before that. He never showed he had any plus major league skills. He's a solid AAA backup, but no more.

Bullpen: This competition is wide open. I think Capps, Perkins and Swarzak are pretty much set. Although its possible Swarzak could pitch his way off the team in spring training, I don't think that is likely. Duensing is almost certain to be in the bullpen, absent a meltdown in the rotation. That makes four spots that are taken, there is a long list of players in competition for the remaining three spots. Alex Burnett experience may give him a leg up on the others. Terry Doyles status as a rule 5 guy may make it tempting to keep him over someone they can option to AAA. But basically the Twins are going to take the three guys who show the best in spring training. Almost anyone in camp has a shot at one of those spots. My count is there are 22-23 options, depending on whether you include Liam Hendriks. Its likely they will want Hendriks starting at AAA, rather than sitting in the bullpen.

13th Position Player: With the questions in the bullpen, it is almost a given the Twins will keep 12 pitchers. The roster looks like it will include 3 catchers, Morneau, Casilla, Carroll, Valencia, Willinghutam, Span, Revere, Plouffe and a middle infielder. That leaves one more spot for a backup player. The competition appears to be Luke Hughes, Sean Burroughs, Chris Parmelee and Rene Tosoni. Hughes is out of options, can backup three infield positions and has a decent bat. The job is likely his to lose unless Morneau's health is in question. In that case there may be an opening for Parmelee. Tosoni would give the Twins a fifth outfielder. His chances probably depend on how well Plouffe makes the transition to the outfield. But with Doumit also able to play the outfield, there does not appear to be much need for another outfielder. Burroughs could win a job with an outstanding spring, but his past experience doesn't really suggest that is going to happen.

One Game Playoffs Another Selig Travesty?

Baseball need its own, unique, system of playoffs. Unlike other sports who have the same players on the field for every game, the better baseball team is often the one who has the most pitching depth. The decision to go to one game "playins" for the wild card team is another gimick that cheapens the game.

Some statistically oriented folks have pointed out that the odds for who wins one game between even two mismatched teams is almost the same as flipping a coin. But, while that is true for a random regular season game, it isn't true in a single playoff game. A one game playoff rewards a team with one really good starter and a great closer over a team with depth in both the rotation and the bullpen.

Almost all the demands by bloggers that the Twins get an "ace" are based on the value of an ace in a playoffs where pitching depth is a lot less important. The emphasis on winning just one playoff game diminishes even further the value of putting together the best team for the regular season.

What they ought to do is restructure the playoffs to give a win to the team with the better record at the start of the series. So the team with the better record would need to win one game in a "three game series", while the other team would need to win two. Of course the teams would actually only play, at most, two of the three games. In a "seven game series", teams would play six games and the team with the better record would need to win only three games, while the other team would need to win 4. That would make the regular season a much bigger factor in who ended up in the World Series.

I would love to see baseball go back to one winner in each league. They could schedule two home and away series with each team in a 13 team league plus one home and away game against each team in the other league. That would be 170 game schedule. It would turn those one game interleague "series" into an annual event for the local fans of that team. Imagine how many Cub fans would show up for its single game each year against the Twins.

Then you would have the next six teams in each league do "three game playins". If the teams had the same record they would play all three games, otherwise the team with the better record would get a win to start and they would actually play only two games. The three winners of the playins and the division winner would play "seven game" series, but the league champion would get that one game gimme in each series. So teams playing them would have to win 4 of 6 games instead of 4 of 7. In short, you make getting to the World Series a long shot for anyone other than the league champions. Which is the way it should be.

Of course, no one is going to adopt that convoluted system. It doesn't conform to how football, basketball and hockey do their playoffs. And emulating those other sports seems to be what baseball is after under Selig. Unfortunately, part of baseball's appeal is that it is unique. It has already been surpassed by football as the national sport. As it becomes increasingly just another sport, its place in American life is going to be further diminished.

Past Decade in AL with New Baseball Playoff System

I thought it would be interesting to look at who would have been in the playoffs the last decade if they had been held under the new playoff system. Here is a list of the division champions and the playoff with the actual wildcard team listed first:

2011: Yankees Tigers Rangers
Playoff: Rays vs. Red Sox

2010: Rays Twins Rangers
Playoff: Yankees vs Red Sox

2009: Yankess Twins Angels
Playoff: Red Sox vs Rangers

2008: Rays White Sox Angels
Playoff: Red Sox vs Yankees

2007: Red Sox Indians Angels
Playoff: Yankees vs (Tigers/Mariners)

2006: Yankees Twins Athletics
Playoff: Tigers vs White Sox

2005: Yankees White Sox Angels
Playoff: Red sox vs Indians

2004: Yankees Twins Angels
Playoff: Red Sox vs Athletics

2003: Yankees Twins Athletics
Playoff: Red Sox vs. Mariners

2002: Yankees Twins Athletics
Playoff: Angels vs (Red Sox/Mariners)

So here are the teams that would have benefited:
Mariners: 3 times
Red Sox: 3 times
Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Athletics: 1 time

No benefit:
Twins, Royals, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays, Angels

This assumes there is a playoff if final two wild card teams have the same record.

Another potential interesting wrinkle would be 2008 and 2009 when the Twins were in playoffs for the division championship with the White Sox and Tigers. In both cases, the losing team was one game behind the second wildcard team.

But suppose they had been tied. Normally, playoff games between division winners have been considered regular season games. If that remains the case, then the extra loss by the loser of the division playoff will drop their record by a half game for purposes of choosing wild card winners. Essentially the team that tied the other two will get preference for the wild card spot over the team that tied for the division and lost the playoff game.

It will get even more complicated if teams have postponed games to play. That could create a chain of games that would force a delay to the playoffs.